Kevin Cunningham

I wonder which GDP figure they used here.

Interesting the role of young men on Twitter and TikTok here. Much more research required into precise pathways. Appears to be a similar group to those who are anti immigrant and believe conspiracies in previous research

Total sample was 2656 for this part, 13.4% were spoiled. I'll put something up on methods etc.

(All done on the day to minimise false recall, post hoc rationalisations etc. Wildly underestimated as a source of error)

Thank you Stefan! 🙏

Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election.

@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.

➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

Thanks David!!

Tahnks Brian

Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why? An initial analysis

I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future.

kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...

Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️
#Aras25
analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-...
@kevcunningham.bsky.social

🙏🙏

Final poll ahead of the presidential election Some notes on how this could end up different to the outcome

Trying something

open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

Catherine Connolly on course to win presidential election on first count – new Irish Independent/Ireland Thinks poll Follow the latest developments in our live blog:

Connolly 55
Humphreys 35
Gavin 10

m.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race What began as a fragmented field is rapidly resolving into a clearer contest and a potential fault line in Irish politics.

Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race

www.independent.ie/opinion/anal...

It is with profound sadness that RTÉ announces the death of radio presenter and actor Seán Rocks. Seán died last night following a brief illness at the age of 63. 
 
Seán is survived by his beloved Catherine and sons Christian and Morgan.

May he rest in peace.

Will extending the vote to 16-year-olds benefit Labour at the next general election? Labour have said they will extend the right to vote to 16-year-olds in time for the next general election. Sky's Data and Forensics unit assesses whether it will help them at the ballot box, and how m...

Not all analysis!

Seanad-esque

That particular argument really irks. It reveals quite an elitist lack of faith in ordinary people, as support for the likes of McGregor is absolutely miniscule.

Councillors wonder what’s become of those transport schemes to make neighbourhoods safer They recite schemes that were promised, or piloted, but seem to have gone nowhere. A council spokesperson said similar initiatives still exist.

New piece for @dublininquirer.com about Dublin City Council's well-regarded Neighbour Transport Scheme, that quietly went away.

Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent

'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?'

Yes 55
No 37
Don't know 8

Nearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017.

The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now.

@news.sky.com

'The same way as Brexit'

Congratulations David!!

The key chart right now:

Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers.

This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.

Yup.

What a sad sight

Turns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t.

One of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe.

always a NO to gen AI

Hi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908