James Ryan

This map shows widely dispersed dots representing the guesses of US survey respondents about the location of Iran on a world map. 23% placed a dot in the correct area.

Where is Iran?
Each dot represents an American's guess.
pro.morningconsult.com/articles/can... 🌐

Live: Khamenei's body has been found and he is confirmed dead, Israeli official says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there were many signs indicating Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "is no longer", without explicitly confirming his death.

www.reuters.com/world/iran-c...

The refugee spillover from Iran is about to grow enormously

Please run against Fetterman. I’m sorry.

And regime decapitation without a ground invasion really seems to me like a recipe for civil war of the 21st century Iraq or Syria variety.

Iran turning into Iraq 91-2003 from a US perspective (no long term operation but periodic strikes and actions to check weapons development) sounds plausible to me, but we should all remember how that ended…

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally By leaving it to the people of Iran to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change

A pretty solid interpretation of the paths forward from @yezidsayigh.bsky.social

sayighyezid.substack.com/p/trump-does...

Shorter Schumer: please ask us for the legal authority to continue the war… bsky.app/profile/schu...

A lot of people objecting to this seem to think domestic politics in Russia have never mattered to Putin.

People talk about sleepwalking into a war. This is a case of Trump, Bibi, et al daydreaming into a war. One that will be a nightmare for millions of people

Precisely.

It presumes Hillary is not 100% supportive of this operation, and Democratic leadership won’t go along with it. That is an utterly mistaken presumption.

Bush went through the motions so Putin, and Trump after him, did not.

As I said, they admire his courage in the breech. They will cheer the collapse of the regime and quickly forget the dead school children. The Fetterman types are already out in support. Absent any sustained anti-war caucus, Schumer and Jeffries will get in line, tacitly or otherwise.

Discover?

And spare me with the Donald the Dove, Hillary the Hawk stuff. Hillary absolutely supports this. If anything, she’s impressed with Trump’s courage. Same for Schumer and Jeffries.

Folks should be reminded if this, but also that it was Iraq that paved the permission structure for Ukraine in the first place.

It is clear now that the Omani foreign minister's sudden media blitz last night was an attempt to shame the United States by putting into the public record how readily Iran was prepared to reach a deal.

Just no depth to the depravity of this administration.

The first deaths announced from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran: dozens of school girls. They hit an elementary school in Hormozgan.

It’s part that, and part resource scarcity. In Turkey, Erdogan not only needed to consolidate/cow capital (which is intimately bound up with the media there) but also had to deal with the military and Gülen. Each of those a tall order in an economy that was struggling when he took over.

(Actually *both* Chucks too low, but a quibble nonetheless)

Chuck too low but hard to argue with much else.

People should stop and consider that it actually might be *more difficult* to consolidate power, as a matter of politics, in a place like Turkey than in the US.

I think what we’re finding out is that in the US context you don’t need the political cunning or skill of an Erdogan, etc., to have similar effects on the political system & culture. Perhaps it won’t prove as durable but I would argue that money is making up for a lot of political deficiencies.

Correct. It is a manufactured crisis and as usual he is chickening out.

Increasingly looking like the likeliest outcome. bsky.app/profile/drop...

Our party is officially opposed to what the Camp David accords called “autonomy for the Palestinians” as an alternative to the right of the Palestinian people to erect an independent state, a right recognized by the international community and sanctioned by international law which has been unanimously supported by the Arab states at several “summits,” most notably the Rabat summit. Our party is opposed to the so-called autonomy because: First, it legitimizes the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, lt does not require Israel to withdraw its troops of occupation but merely redeploys them.... Second, it has not ended the establishment of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza.... Third, the international practice in effect at the United Nations calls for elections only after the evacuation of occupation forces and only under the aegis of the United Nations. The UN resolutions on Namibia and Zimbabwe are very clear in this regard. Nevertheless, this condition is nowhere stipulated for elections surrounding the so-called autonomy for the Palestinians. Fourth, what Israel proposed and what Egypt accepted for the Palestinians is reminiscent of what the South African government proposed for Transkei and the bantustans—a proposal rejected by the five Western powers.

the most fascinating part here is that this party predicted what Oslo would bring "reminiscent of what the South African government proposed for Transkei and the bantustans—a proposal rejected by the five Western powers."

President Sadat declared to the Knesset that “it is fruitless not to recognize the Palestinian people as well as their rights to the creation of their state and a return to their homeland.” And now treaty negotiations between Egypt and Israel have resulted in the confirmation of the Camp David accords, refusing the creation of a Palestinian state and postponing negotiations for “autonomy” for Palestinians to a later stage. None of the Israeli positions have changed since the time of Sadat’s intiative. Begin’s conception of peace has been implemented while the five-point peace plan outlined by President Sadat has not. The occupation of Arab territory has not ended. The creation of a Palestinian state has not taken place. The right of all parties to secure borders has not been obtained. The establishment of relations governed by the Charter of the United Nations has not taken place. The peace is being constructed far from the United Nations under the sole aegis of the United States. The end of war has not come. Only Egypt has left the arena of confrontation with Israel, while that arena has expanded with the addition of Iran, a non-Arab Islamic state. The implementation of “peace” under these conditions not only prejudices the cause of peace in the Middle East and the inalienable Arab and Palestinian rights, but also the national rights of Egypt to sovereignty over its territory, to its national prestige, and to its international position.

Basically everything here has been proven correct