Mark Healey

God tier political nerd Dad joke

Ain't never been a regression model born that can handle structural breaks

that amazing detail struck me too

oh man I can't believe we're bringing back "unleash Chiang" lore!

Jackson @tree_bro Follow *knocks on door* Mrs Smith? I'm from Army. Your son got owned in Iraq. He showed great valor in the face of epic fail. Semper fi or whatecer 4:20 PM • Jul 22, 2011

This tweet preceeds and anticipates deaths in Operation Epic Fury by almost 15 years

I mean when has a hopeful moment of popular uprising against a despised regime ever given way to a new revolutionary government that came to be just as corrupt and repressive and sclerotic as the one it replaced. Certainly never before in Iran.

Digging deeper after putting yourself in a hole.

Low dishonest years that history will revile. (19/n)

When we talk about Baby Boomers not getting off the stage: In 1997, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2007, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2017, the US president was born in 1946.

And next year in 2027? The US president will have been born in 1946.

I have adapted
the poem
that you wrote
like a hundred years ago

and which
you were probably
thinking
was exclusively about plums

Forgive me
it was low-effort
so reusable
and arguably funny

💯💯💯💯💯

Maybe Delcy Rodríguez is a savvy heir to Chávez after all: outfoxed her boss, outmaneuvered the opposition, made such a craven deal with the US as to tempt the US into immediately trying to replicate it with Iran, with predictably catastrophic results.

Live Updates: Trump Says Strikes Killed Leaders U.S. Saw as Successors in Iran

We are so good at doing war that we murdered our Plan A and there is no Plan B

abolish ICE is a majority position among INDEPENDENTS AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC

you have 23% among REPUBLICANS

we have at least three more years of this shit

what I am saying is: the next Dem president had better be ready to walk into DHS with a chainsaw on Day 1

This meeting should be an email

Speed running the greatest hits

Paul Musgrave O @protmusgrave Around the department: Americanists: how bad can it be really? Comparativists: dictatorship, purges International relations: nuclear war 2017-01-12, 9:18 AM 708 Retweets 944 Likes Paul Musgrave © @profmusgrave • 2017-01-12 Replying to @profmusgrave Americanists: haha but seriously IR and comparative: who is joking LI89 · 194 Jacob T. Levy @itlevy- 2017-10-10 Replying to @profmusgrave Theorists: "We will go and view the city of tyranny, and once more take a look into the tyrant's soul." 172 Daniel W. Drezner © @dandrezner - 2017-01-12 Political theorists: oh, so now you want to talk to us, do you? Paul Musgrave © @profmusgrave Around the department: Americanists: how bad can it be really? Comparativists: dictatorship, purges International relations: nuclear war L109 O230

Feeling vindicated in my decision to bring this printout with me when I changed jobs

Ah yes, global hedge funds, experts in assessing and pricing risk

So, so instructive to compare media response to Afghanistan withdrawal -- months of hysterical garment-rending & catastrophizing, relentless criticism of the admin -- with the response to an unprovoked, unmotivated, illegal war of aggression, ie, "some critics say maybe Trump should have reasons."

The whole Trump administration is just rooting around in complicated systems - regional balances of power, state legitimacy, funding for global health - and ripping wires out, and they've frankly been lucky that they've ripped out so many wires without electrocuting themselves. Won't last forever.

Adam Tooze: The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade. Wherever you look in financial markets, you see signs that global investors are going out of their way to avoid Donald Trump’s America.

Welcome to New England!

Love that his office spelled it that way 3 separate times in the press release

We live in a world in which its entirely possible that Iran negotiations failed because people involved bet the under.

Here is how the Dec-Feb 2025-26 period compared to the 1991-2020 normal period. 🔥🔥🔥

Tl;dr: Folks look at you like you're crazy when you say we're in the midst of the worst, most unprecedented Article I constitutional crisis, & then it's Saturday. Groundhog Day for "Mike Johnson, John Thune, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis, etc. enjoy dinner while everyone's angry at Chuck & Hakeem."

An Unpopular, Doomed, Bloody War People will die and nothing will be accomplished

My thoughts

open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...