Edward Lucas

False Alarms: and Real Ones A Russian landgrab in Estonia in 2028 would destroy NATO. Western scaremongering about the Baltics’ vulnerability is missing the real threat.

False Alarms: and Real Ones | "Western scaremongering about the Baltics’ vulnerability is missing the real threat." @edwardlucas.bsky.social

Denmark’s drone humiliation weakens us all Paltry deterrence is an invitation to Putin to wreak havoc, making a mockery of Nato’s defences

Denmark’s drone humiliation weakens us all - important comment by @edwardlucas.bsky.social

“But it has been “sleepwalking” when it comes to its domestic security, says Hans Tino Hansen, a hawkish Dane who runs Risk Intelligence, a consultancy.”

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Test: Found Wanting NATO just set a powerful signal to the Kremlin: “We’re not serious”. Russia does not need to defeat NATO militarily if it can politically.

cepa.org/article/test...

Recommended reading from @edwardlucas.bsky.social 👇

and here in Swedish

Mario Draghi’s speech to Europe is a warning to us all He is right: without a radical change Europeans will be spectators at their own funeral

@edwardlucas.bsky.social on Mario Draghis evisceration of current EU politics.

“…the EU is a mere “spectator” in world politics. It meekly accepts US tariffs. It is sidelined in conflicts in Iran and Gaza. In Ukraine, it pays the piper but does not call the tune...”

While Europe waits on Trump, Putin is winning Focus on summits and supposed security guarantees misses the point: Russia has the initiative

Brilliant article by @edwardlucas.bsky.social indeed. Here's the 🎁 link (no paywall).

www.thetimes.com/article/1585...

and isn't that Vilnius in the background?

MAXimum surveillance: how Russians are being driven into the FSB’s pocket messenger.

Starting September 1, the Russian messenger Max will become mandatory for preinstallation on all devices in Russia⤵️

While Europe waits on Trump, Putin is winning Focus on summits and supposed security guarantees misses the point: Russia has the initiative

Our diplomacy and discussion frame the central issue as finding a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. Seen from Moscow a much wider contest is under way, aiming to break the old rules and alliances to create a might-is-right world.
(£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
By @edwardlucas.bsky.social

Denis, I recommend looking more closely at Italy than that. The fair criticism of Meloni is that she and her government have shied away from any major reforms. The one that bears no relation to reality is that she and her government bear any resemblance to Mussolini, because (so far!!) they don't

Weakly: Captive Nations The Trump administration remembers to mark Captive Nations Week. This year’s was perhaps not the White House wordsmiths’ finest effort.

Weakly: Captive Nations | "The Trump administration remembers to mark a Cold War anniversary." @edwardlucas.bsky.social

Discussed in this column by @edwardlucas.bsky.social today
(£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

There is only one warmonger on the European stage: Vladimir Putin | Letter Letter: Experts on Russia, Ukraine and international security respond to a letter that criticised Fiona Hill for her assessment of the Russian threat to Britain

delighted to sign this letter www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Banking: Moldova’s Winning Even if the Kremlin succeeds in toppling Moldova’s pro-Western government, the authorities in Kyiv won't tolerate Russian reinforcement.

Banking: Moldova’s Winning | "Russia’s grip on the unrecognized Transnistrian state is weakening. No stunts, please." @edwardlucas.bsky.social

Ukraine and Russia agree to swap dead and wounded troops but report no progress toward ending war Delegations from Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey for their second round of direct peace talks in just over two weeks.

“Battered, beleaguered, tired and outnumbered, Ukrainians have, at minimal cost, in complete secrecy, and over vast distances, destroyed or damaged dozens, perhaps more, of Russia’s strategic bombers [in the] the most audacious attack of the war.” @edwardlucas.bsky.social

National defence must include our elections It is time to tackle the misinformation and murky political funding that damage democracy

National defence must include our elections - as @edwardlucas.bsky.social argues those who want to damage our democracy are as likely to use electoral interference as bombs. An ambitious Elections Bill must urgently close the gaping loopholes in our defences.

www.thetimes.com/article/e280...

National defence must include our elections It is time to tackle the misinformation and murky political funding that damage democracy

Under our flimsy rules, any foreign kleptocrat or broligarch can promote such causes, shrouded in anonymity, so long as they do so outside an election period and without supporting a specific party or candidate.
(£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
By @edwardlucas.bsky.social

"The one thing you need to know about the Nordic Baltic region plus Poland is it has a GDP larger than Russia" — @edwardlucas.bsky.social, Senior Advisor at Center for European Policy Analysis @cepa.org

#LennartMeriConference

Tone-Deaf: Nobody’s Dancing The US and Europeans alike are failing to meet Russia’s strategic challenge. Seize Russian assets. Rush help to Ukraine. And rearm—fast.

"Amid the media fireworks of the tariff war, long-term strategic considerations are absent. By contrast, Putin does have a plan. Befriend Trump. Split the European Union. Wreak havoc. Wear down Ukraine. So far, it’s working." @edwardlucas.bsky.social

Rain (Fire) on the Parade The 80th-anniversary celebrations of victory in Europe after World War Two will be disappointing—for Russia.

"We have seen a new kind of warfare unfold in Ukraine, but most countries have barely started to devote the time and money needed to get ready to fight the new way." @edwardlucas.bsky.social

YouTube video by Times Radio Trump and Vance ominously hint at severing ties with 'enemy' Europe | Edward Lucas

Good interview with @edwardlucas.bsky.social on Times Radio. Completely agree that we’re not seeing an adequate sense of urgency regarding rearmament in Europe, and that we might not be as lucky this time around.

youtu.be/-oMHPtYb9jw?...

Our cover this week.

America Will Miss Europe’s Dependence When It’s Gone European self-reliance for security will cost U.S. jobs, profits, and influence.

my latest for @foreignpolicy foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/23/u...

China First? No Thanks In the past years, attitudes to China in the US and allies seemed to be converging. Transatlantic angst now clouds Europe’s strategic choice.

“The EU leadership and the CCP are jointly championing free trade, and denouncing the disruption caused by Trumpian tergiversation on tariffs.” @edwardlucas.bsky.social

China First? No Thanks In the past years, attitudes to China in the US and allies seemed to be converging. Transatlantic angst now clouds Europe’s strategic choice.

China First? No Thanks | "Transatlantic angst clouds Europe’s strategic choice." @edwardlucas.bsky.social

US-China tariff war: how should the EU respond? Now that the US has suspended its special tariffs for most countries, the focus of the global tariff dispute has shifted to the clash between Washington and Beijing.

How should Europe respond to the US-China tariff war?

America First or China First? The ultimate dilemma, @edwardlucas.bsky.social writes in Lithuania's LRT, is whether to throw Europe's hat in with the US, or tacitly accept Chinese dominance.

um that's Edward Luce not me

Sexual violence is a weapon in Putin’s conquest of Ukraine In her devastating polemic, Putin’s War on Women, the writer Sofi Oksanen shows how rape and humiliation is Kremlin policy

www.thetimes.com/culture/book...

@edwardlucas.bsky.social concludes, ‘Faced with the choice between a lucrative US-led rapprochement with Russia and the perilous confrontation involved in staying loyal to Ukraine, many countries may choose safety over honour. In the long run they will lose both’.

Choose loyalty. #SlavaUkraïni 🇺🇦