James Acton

Yes, absolutely.

a man in a suit and tie is smiling while sitting at a table with his hands folded . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is smiling while sitting at a table with his hands folded .

We now go live to the Kremlin for Putin's reaction:

I feel pretty strongly the @nytimes.com has the wrong framing here. This isn't serious; it's pathetic.

I'd suggest something like:

"Trump throws social media hissy fit invoking nukes after public spat with ex-president of Russia."

Ooops. Wrong handle: @scientistsorg.bsky.social

From Nuclear Notebook in
@BulletinAtomic

tandfonline.com/doi/figure/1...

As much as I deplore nuclear signaling by tweet--can't believe I just wrote that--I would NOT necessarily assume there's a been change to the US nuclear posture. The U.S. always keeps ~4/5 SSBNs at sea ready to fire.

Success Academy’s Radical Educational Experiment Inside Eva Moskowitz’s quest to combine rigid discipline with a progressive curriculum.

From @newyorker.com

www.newyorker.com/magazine/201...

Ahem

(Deleted earlier version, which was missing caption!)

Ah, yes, that crucial ninth significant figure...

Good gracious, Ignatius!

Why I disagree with the normally excellent David Ignatius; recent oped on Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

The case for attacking Iran relied on emphasizing its technical prowess.

The case that strikes were successful requires claiming that Iran is technically incompetent.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/i...

And, finally, given that hope is not a strategy, what's your plan to keep Iran in the NPT and to accept inspections--including of the 60% HEU that Israeli officials acknowledged survived the strikes. (12/12)

Given the U.S. developed the uranium metal production process in the 1940s in a university lab with equipment from the 1920s, why do you suppose Iran will struggle to replicate the process outside of Isfahan? (11/n)

The U.S. did not even try to collapse the very deep tunnels at Isfahan where most of Iran's HEU was stored. Are you concerned that, in reality, the United States has clearly signaled the limits of ability to destroy underground facilities with nonnuclear weapons? (10/n)

What's Israel's plan for dealing with the HEU that Israeli officials acknowledge survived the attack?

Does Israel know the location of Iran's stockpile of centrifuge components, which have not been under monitoring since 2021 following the Iran Deal's collapse? (9/n)

To close, some questions for Ignatius' source.

What happens if "activities" are being conducted too far underground for Israel to destroy? Do you expect the U.S. to attack again? If yes, what happens if the activities are too deep for the U.S. to reach? (8/n)

Finally re timeframe, as Eric has observed, the claim that Iran is 1-2 years from the bomb is actually similar to pre-war estimates, including from NETANYAHU himself. (7/n)

Ignatius is also inconsistent. Back in 2015, while generally supportive of the Iran Deal, he argued its 10-year timeframe (again, misleading) meant Obama was making a "big bet."

Now, an attack with much shorter-term effects is a success. (6/n)

washingtonpost.com/opinions/aft...

Moreover, both Netanyahu and Ignatius are being inconsistent in defining success.

Netanyahu attacked the Iran Deal on the misleading grounds that its limits only lasted 10 years. Now Israel is claiming a 1-2 year delay is a success. (5/n)

bsky.app/profile/nucl...

U.S. scrambles to determine impact of strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites Trump says Iran’s nuclear program was obliterated, but questions remain about Iran’s capability and the location of hundreds of pounds of highly enriched uranium.

In fact, the source is actually walking back earlier Israeli claims!

Previously, Netanyahu said Iran's program had been set back 2-3 years. Now Israel is saying 1-2 years. (4/n)

washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Ignatius's oped is written as if it's a news story. The "news" in this case is that--SURPRISE!--an Israeli source backed up claims by the Israeli government! (3/n)

x.com/james_acton3...

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

First off, here's the link to my @foreignpolicy.com piece. (2/n)

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/i...

Opinion | The 12 days that turned back the clock on Iran’s nuclear program Israeli and American assessments agree Tehran’s infrastructure to finish a bomb is shattered.

On Friday, I argued in @foreignpolicy.com that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous.

The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Let's take a look... (1/n)

🎶When you attend a funeral,
It is sad to think that sooner orl…
…ater, those you love will do the same for you.

And you may have found it tragic,
Not to mention other adjec..
…tives to think of all the weeping they will do. 🎶

RIP, Mr Lehrer.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Here's the link to the whole thing again. Please take a read! (5/5)

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/i...

I know I'll be accused of war mongering by people who read just the first tweet, but to be clear, more bombing won't help. I'm not optimistic about preventing Iran from getting the bomb, but the best way forward is diplomacy. (4/n)

Claims/implications that Iran may struggle to recover the highly enriched uranium that is probably sitting underground at Esfahan are just silly.

Digging debris out of tunnel entrances really isn't hard. (3/n)

Spice warning:🌶️🌶️🌶️

Iran could build the bomb in a year or so without rebuilding its previous nuclear program.

The loss of Iran's declared enrichment facilities and uranium metal production lines were simply not the crippling blows claimed by the Trump admin. (2/n)

bsky.app/profile/nucl...

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Me in @foreignpolicy.com.

The Trump administration's claim that Iran would need "years" to rebuild its previous nuclear program is like asserting that an unlocked bank vault would be impervious to a cyberattack.

It’s true but misses the point.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/i...

How Many Nukes Does It Take to Win a War? (Trick Question) The world is living with a Cold War hangover.

had @nuclear-jim.bsky.social on Angry Planet to explain what the current nuclear arm's race looks like. It's bad!

He's got a solution that sounds radical, but is more palatable than living in a world where everyone is spending billions to construct more nukes