Robin Mills

About as strategically meaningful as if Iran killed GW Bush

Energy markets on edge as Israeli and US strikes on Iran raise wider conflict fears | The National Attention has turned to whether Israel will conduct further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure

“There is no chance… that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight" JD Vance
Focus is on oil, but what about impact on gas too if the US/Iran war drags on?
www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...
@thenationalnews.com
#energysky

US-Iran war: What will the impact be on oil? | The National Prices could climb to $100 a barrel on prolonged conflict, analysts say

For all Trump's talk, Iran regime change doesn't look plausible (leadership change is another matter). Other OPEC producers can cover for Iran's oil exports - as long as there are no Gulf disruptions #energysky
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www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...

Why the IEA and Opec are split on what comes next for oil | The National The IEA forecasts a massive surplus in the oil market while Opec predicts 1.4 million barrels a day of demand expansion

Why @IEA and @OPECSecretariat are split on what comes next for oil - and what it means for strategy this year www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene... @thenationalnews.com #energysky

Can Kuwait close the production gap with Gulf rivals? Kuwait's finance ministry has calculated the breakeven oil price for the 2025-26 fiscal year at $90.5 per barrel, well above current prices

It is working on a new investment model. The new offshore finds & tougher onshore resources are promising. But can it it catch up? #energysky

www.agbi.com/opinion/oil-...

Can Kuwait close the production gap with Gulf rivals? Kuwait's finance ministry has calculated the breakeven oil price for the 2025-26 fiscal year at $90.5 per barrel, well above current prices

Kuwait's production capacity was ahead of the UAE's in 2010. Now it is 3.2 Mbpd versus 4.85 Mbpd

Budget break-even is $90.5 per bbl and oil is 83% of the budget

What’s Next for Iran’s Energy Sector? - AGSI Iran’s energy industry, mismanaged and hit by sanctions, is still crucial for the government in Tehran and important on the global stage.

agsi.org/analysis/wha...

As US talks run alongside military threats, what's next for Iran's energy sector? Disruption, Muddling Through, or Resurgence.
@gulfstatesinst.bsky.social
#energysky

Mix of sources...UK govt, Energy Institute Statistical Review, and some independent studies. Interesting question, deserves a more systematic look

What’s Next for Iran’s Energy Sector? - AGSI Iran’s energy industry, mismanaged and hit by sanctions, is still crucial for the government in Tehran and important on the global stage.

Whatever the exact political and military process, Iran’s petroleum sector could see three broad outcomes: complete disruption; muddling through similar to the post-2020 period; or resurgence under new leadership. @robinmills.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/wha...

Total mid-term renewable potential ~46 kWh/cap/day out of 71 kWh/cap/day demand in 2024. But primary energy demand should keep coming down as electricity replaces combustible fuels.
Just wind, PV, hydro & biomass gets 23.5 kWh/cap/day
So realistic potential is well above Mackay's figures,

This is a mix of project pipelines (to 2030/35) and ultimate potential. Probably too optimistic on solar heat, tidal & geothermal, and too conservative on solar PV and offshore wind. OTOH, UK population likely to reach 76-78M by 2050.

6. Tidal 30 GW potential generating 3.5 kWh/cap/day at 34% capacity factor
7. Biomass 2024 was 1.6 kWh/cap/day, but relies on imported fuel
8. Geothermal 25 GW electricity generating 7.8 kWh/cap/day and 100 GW heat generating ~10.3 kWh(th)/cap/day
(9. Also 1.6 kWh/cap/day nuclear in 2024)

4. Solar PV pipeline 57 GW generating 2.1 kWh/cap/day at 10.5% capacity factor. Long-term potential 117 GW generating 4.3 kWh/cap/day
5. Solar hot water ~1 kWh/cap/day if every household installs
5. Hydro likely flat ~0.3 kWh/cap/day

1. UK per-capita energy consumption fell ~33% 2009 to 2024; population 69.3 million
2. Onshore wind pipeline ~47 GW generating 4.4 kWh/cap/day at 27% capacity factor
3. Offshore wind pipeline ~93 GW generating 12.9 kWh/cap/day at 40% capacity factor

Plans Made at Bedtime, Obsolete by Morning | Breakbulk Geopolitical instability is forcing operators to reroute vessels, rewrite contracts and rethink risk at an unprecedented pace. At Breakbulk Middle East’s “Geopolitics in Motion” panel session, industr...

“I wake up in the morning literally throwing last night’s plans away"
How do shippers deal with today's unprecedented disruptions?
@Break_Bulk #energysky

breakbulk.com/articles/pla...

Central Asia can play key role in solving Europe's gas needs | The National Abu Dhabi's Adnoc has built a growing position in strategic assets for Europe’s energy security

After ADNOC / XRG's latest deal in Azerbaijan: Central Asia can play key role in solving Europe's gas needs www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...

@thenationalnews.com #energysky

Saudi targets 50% renewables, 50% natural gas by 2030. They will probably fall short but not by much

How the US and Iran have left energy markets flying blind | The National The US and/or Israel could attack domestic Iranian energy infrastructure, concentrating on gas, electricity and fuel distribution

Does either the US or Iran know what it is aiming at in the Gulf? How the US and Iran have left energy markets flying blind www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...
#energysky

Is the clock turning back on national sovereignty over natural resources? | The National Venezuela’s oil sales are under US supervision and the Trump administration is threatening Iran, but advantage by coercion is not the answer

“Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons. Tariffs as leverage. Financial infrastructure as coercion. Supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.”

Are the great powers turning the clock back?

@thenationalnews.com

www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene... #energysky

Not sure why you feel the need to lecture Europe in this patronising way, when this is exactly what they are doing, and there is an inevitable transition period in which they need gas from *someone* (mostly the non-lunatic Norwegians)

Europe's gas consumption is down almost 20% since 2021, and wind and solar overtook fossil fuels in 2025. Not their fault they relied on a stopgap from an ally who turned traitor.

Shadows and skulduggery on the open seas Behind the glare of the legitimate petroleum industry is the shadow fleet, which contains more than one thousand vessels

The shadow fleet of oil tankers has kept the economies of Russia, Iran and Venezuela alive through wars, protests and sanctions - but is this ghostly fleet now about to be dispersed in the light of harsher scrutiny?
#energysky

www.agbi.com/opinion/oil-...

No end in sight for Iran’s chronic energy problems | The National Iranian oil sells for steep discounts versus international benchmarks even to China because of the hassle of circumventing sanctions

Gas, power, water shortages and subsidies - the Iranian regime's energy failures have undermined its economy...but any new government will have to solve the same problems www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...
@thenationalnews.com
#energysky

2026 outlook: how reliability and renewables can co-exist in the new energy map There can be no energy security without climate security. Wild weather will hit offshore oil platforms and wind turbines, electricity cables and hydroelectric

www.energyconnects.com/opinion/thou...

#WFES2026 #ADSW #MASDAR #energysky

- Politics will frustrate climate policy that doesn't consider energy security and affordability
- Energy self-sufficiency gives a false sense of security - aiming for autarky destroys national competitiveness
- True global energy security comes from mutual inter-dependence

My answer:
- There is no true energy security without a viable climate
- Many clean energy technologies improve energy security - but there are still real trade-offs we can't wish away
- The benefits of new energy tech for energy security don't excuse bad policy

2026 outlook: how reliability and renewables can co-exist in the new energy map There can be no energy security without climate security. Wild weather will hit offshore oil platforms and wind turbines, electricity cables and hydroelectric

My final panel at World Future Energy Summit today asked: "Does energy security now trump net-zero?" with @jcgnana.bsky.social @utecollier.bsky.social #energysky

World Future Energy Summit: Innovation must become mainstay of Gulf economies | The National Energy efficiency will also take focus at the event in Abu Dhabi this week

Saudi Arabia sold ~$190 billion oil in 2025. China earned ~$240 billion from clean-tech exports.

Future energy innovation must become mainstay of Gulf economies
@thenationalnews.com
Looking forward to #WFES2026 #ADSW this week #MASDAR #energysky

www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...

Monroe to Don-roe: US asserts resource control politics with Venezuela grab | The National Donald Trump said he will take a 'tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground'

From Monroe to Donroe Doctrine: the US's grab of Maduro transforms the map for Venezuela's oil and global security of resources and land
#energysky
@thenationalnews.com

Much of the carbon footprint of oil and gas production isn't immutable either - depends on decisions on flaring, methane leaks, electrification, CCS etc. So you can also campaign to improve high emitters instead of shutting them down. Some big & easier wins.