Dr Steven Wagner

...one morning and everything is different today than it was yesterday. Usually it's for the worst, but not always."
This morning is one of those days. I see the first glimmer of optimism in my adult life. 2/2

Whenever I teach about the conflict, there's always a moment where my students ask me if there's any reason to think things could ever get better.
I always say something like "I don't see a way out. No happy ending. That said, it's a fickle place and from time to time you wake up... 1/2

Maybe settlements are supposed to be the price

Nothing explicit against settlements in the strip either. Only implied in pt 16.

Happy Stanislav Petrov day! Sometimes, questioning what the computer tells you, is the way to go.

In his world only fancy people get horses

To those saying that recognition of Palestine is a reward for terrorism, may I remind of you of Israel's origins?

Look what came in the mail today!
(Feat. my chapter on covert action in Mandatory Palestine.)

@magslong.bsky.social @rorycormac.bsky.social @markstout.bsky.social @dvanp.bsky.social

I still don't get why Palantir and not any of the other firms with no real product or market...

The difference is that the Biden WH at least thought about what they were doing and packaged their pressure as part of a current of both domestic and Israeli politics. They could have been tougher but I'm not sure it would have helped.

so many war movies and books tend toward a trope of the older generation's last war.
The only one I can think of where that's central to the story is "last flag flying".

I just can't get over them calling themselves that. AQ should sue or whatever.

Signals, Sabotage, and Strategic Collapse: Intelligence and Ambiguity in the Iran-Israel Conflict The Israeli-Iran war remains in an extremely dangerous phase. Deterrence has collapsed. Although the Israelis have said they expect a two-week campaign, there is no obvious end in sight. Now, Iran’…

My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war.

Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?!

The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...

PhD students in War Studies The Department of War Studies conducts research and education in the subject of War Studies. The department consists of about 160 employees and has about 1000 students and participants in commissioned

Come do a PhD at @forsvarshogskolan.bsky.social. You could be supervised by some of my fantastic colleagues while working in a vibrant, pluralistic & highly engaged research environment.

These positions are fully salaried & come with a research budget of 30k SEK a year fhs.varbi.com/en/what:job/...

Channel 12 illustration of the drone op in Iran v the guardian illustration of Ukraine's drone op in Russia. That's one hell of a coincidence.

ripe old ages for alcoholics, though

BCISS Symposium on Oleg Gordievsky – Intelligence Studies Review Posts about BCISS Symposium on Oleg Gordievsky written by Steven B. Wagner and bcissblog

My colleagues and I wrote a short blog series on the occasion of Oleg Gordievsky's passing. My contribution teases some preliminary findings from my Able Archer wargame.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/category/bci...

Book Launch: 'Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict: Communication in Diplomacy, Statecraft and War' Book Launch: 'Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict: Communication in Diplomacy, Statecraft and War' by Matthew Hefler

Come see @drichterova.bsky.social, Phil Davies and I at KCL 01 April 2025 5pm
We are speaking in a forum as part of the UK book launch for Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict, ed. @matthefler.bsky.social. FREE COPIES for attendees thanks to the publisher!
Info here
www.kcl.ac.uk/events/book-...

I have been spending the week working through the formal IDF and shin bet reports on 7 October. Will post about it soon.
I am a bit concerned with the new chief of staff announcing a review of these. There are problems with them, but I'm not confident that he's after those.

It's called "Golden Dome" because it'll be absurdly expensive despite its inherent worthlessness.

'They took books with a Palestinian flag': Israeli Police raids iconic E. J'lem bookshop ***

This is such an outrage. I'm at a complete loss for words.

www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

Bar chart showing publications over years on intelligence studies (from 1874 to 2024).

Could 2024 be considered the golden year of #intelligence studies? Based on @intelarchive.io data, the answer is yes.

A mini thread about publications on intelligence studies in 2024. +

YouTube video by Arab Council for the Social Sciences Text Extraction from Historical Documents in Arabic

I recently gave a talk at the Arab Council for the Social Sciences on optical character recognition for historical documents in Arabic. It's now available on Youtube:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG6t...

Ex-president Rivlin: Queen Elizabeth ‘believed that every Israeli was either a terrorist or a son of a terrorist’ — report * * *

Queen Elizabeth ‘believed that every Israeli was either a terrorist or a son of a terrorist’.
Not a huge surprise given that her confidant, Martin Charteris, was head of staff intelligence in Palestine and led the fight against Begin and Shamir

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

I share your and and @ryanevans.bsky.social frustrations with US policy. However, the UK is in no position to lead a postwar force as part of a sy guarantee. Have you seen the state of things in UK defence? Spending set to *rise* to maintenance levels 2025...

Surely then just Baghdad?

I would have thought Paris

Does anyone recognise the location of this photograph?

This my wife's bubby's method in the family cookbook. It works!

you can also pre-freeze the cabbage to make it easy to separate and roll/wrap (instead of boiling)