David Sterman

Feel like the big focus on AI targeting and the big civilian casualty case (and other smaller ones) is crowding out the question of whether/how this admin’s actions regarding institutional support for targeting review/precautions may have had an impact.

All declarations of sudden breaking of the norm should not only address cases like Russia targeting Ukrainian leaders, history of U.S. / West plots in Iran, but also the set of cases like this www.justice.gov/archives/opa...

Not saying any is perfectly clear but norm is weaker than said.

😂 wasn’t directed at anyone in particular.

To be fair I’m sure I’m guilty of that too.

I would like a mute but only for posts above a certain rate option.

Lots of folks I value their insight but also sometimes feel the whole timeline is them on a tear.

Also very small sample size of cases where people would want to take such an act not due to norms but due to lack or limited character of conflicts.

I remain very skeptical of claims there was a strong norm against assassinating top government figures that was suddenly breached - especially when it comes to the long history of U.S. Iran tensions.

Really think a lot of this is complicated by questionable assumption that failures don’t count.

Trump Team Scrambles Over Rubio’s Admission About Israel and Iran Even Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to claim he’d never made the statement.

I’m sorry but framing this as some kind of secret knowledge and an admission rather than a deliberate messaging strategy for political/legal reasons is malpractice to say the least.

And it is even more so if (not this article) you’re relying on anonymous sources.

newrepublic.com/post/207325/...

The fatal flaw in Iraq 2003 was the absence of a *good* post-hostilities plan, not the very existence of a plan in the first place.

Sea Levels Are Higher Than Many Scientists Think, New Study Shows

Researchers have found that a majority of studies on coastal sea levels underestimated how high water levels are, and hundreds of millions of people are closer to peril than previously thought.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/c...

The idea that nation-building was the key flaw of the early WoT or the primary root of endlessness is a deeply harmful myth.

Yeah. I think there’s a big aspect of this. I don’t want to dismiss the regime change thing but it’s pretty clear this is part of whatever swirl of logics is operating at the moment.

I’m also just not sure the regime change literature is actually great when there’s an attitude of regime collapse.

Also while there’s clearly unlimited or regime change aims in the air, it’s important people remember that limited aims can also (or even moreso) lead to high levels of violence. And that they can also drive when failing trends towards unlimited/regime change aims as perceived path out of failure.

Yeah think even with the clear influence of the regime change talk and its impact, this holds.

Trying to read what’s happening solely through the concept of regime changes misses/obscures alot of what’s happening.

Suppose "Israel made us attack Iran" might have seemed a more appealing explanation than "the President attacked Iran on a whim because he enjoys military spectacle and using the US military as his personal plaything."

Hadn’t thought to run this N-Gram. I’ve done various other synonyms for endless war.

Interesting peaks. Surprised by fall off in later 2000s

Usual caveats about this kind of thing and its limits.

In fact, in many ways missile etc. exchanges are at the core of some of the most known representations of the concept of endless war including 1984.

The war on terror version is arguably a newcomer to the concept.

Defining Endless Wars David Sterman presents a framework for defining and analyzing endless wars with an eye towards ending them.

I do have some thoughts on what that definition ought be / what to look for in making a determination that a war has an endless character, and I think there’s very good reason to fear this meets the definition.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Iran strikes aren’t an ‘endless’ war, Pentagon policy chief argues Elbridge Colby’s rejection of an open-ended conflict comes as the administration seeks to solidify its messaging on the U.S. operation in Iran.

Coverage of and questions for admin figures on whether this is an endless war should involve a definition of endlessness.

And no just saying “national-building,” “Iraq,” or “Afghanistan” doesn’t cut it.

www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

Will be interesting to see if there’s a fall off in Somalia strikes this month due to the focus on the Iran war or not.

Trump says US war supplies mean it can fight 'forever' Donald Trump said the U.S. military has enough stockpiled weapons to fight wars "forever", as the Republican president ​and his administration continued their push to justify a broad, ‌open-ended war ...

Not even Bush at the outset of the war on terror presented a positive vision of forever war as a concept like this.

In the Mission Accomplished speech he explicitly said the WoT would not be endless (wishful thinking but important)

www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

Trump argues for forever wars

Trump is now defending “forever” wars.

The linchpin of his populist-style critique of the foreign policy establishment was that it got us into “forever” wars.

Trump isn’t just defending his war with Iran. Now he is claiming that he can wage “forever” wars “very successfully.”

Greg Bovino, other federal agents investigated for Operation Metro Surge actions Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty said her office is already investigating 17 incidents involving potential unlawful conduct by federal agents.

The DA in Minneapolis is investigating Bovino and others.

Updated data for Somalia strikes based on AFRICOM reply to query and an updated press release.

42 strikes to date in 2026
5 strikes (1 per day) 2/22-2/26
And one 2/28 strike added to the release via update.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Lots of the lack of clarity re Iran strategy is downwind of alternating between claims of limited and unlimited objectives. (Many other causes too)

That alternation is an issue with a lot of America’s CT campaigns against nonstate groups too.

nationalsecurity.law.georgetown.edu/wp-content/u...

The 42 is both AFRICOM’s reply on total strikes to date and our current tracking.

Updated data for Somalia strikes based on AFRICOM reply to query and an updated press release.

42 strikes to date in 2026
5 strikes (1 per day) 2/22-2/26
And one 2/28 strike added to the release via update.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Platner sat for lengthy interview with antisemitic conspiracy theorist, said he was ‘longtime fan’ of his show Weeks before Graham Platner promoted an antisemitic conspiracy theorist in a now-deleted social media post on Thursday, the controversial Maine Senate candidate appeared on a popular YouTube show whos...

At a certain point you just cannot keep extending someone the benefit of the doubt. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE IS A BAD GUY DOESN'T MEAN YOU CAN ASSASSINATE HIM

Putting aside for a short moment the issues with fully rejecting the pottery barn rule, that’s not actually an answer to this question.