Thomas Warrick

You must listen to Steve Witkoff on the Mark Levin Show to understand how we got into this war. You're listening to history here, and it's not what most people think. The misunderstandings, esp. on the Iranian side, are staggering and rival "Guns of August."

rumble.com/v76l928-excl...

Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran: 1 March 2026 Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran.

And this from the UK, France and Germany:

We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source.

www.gov.uk/government/n...

Joint Statement on Iran’s Missile and Drone Attacks in the Region - United States Department of State The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates on the...

Just released, Iran has now unified the world against them.

First, there's this:

www.state.gov/releases/off...

Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran: 1 March 2026 Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran.

Some believe it wasn’t the US A-bomb that caused Japan’s surrender, it was Russia joining the war against Japan on 8/8/45. Think about today’s announcement by UK, France, and Germany they would “destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source.”

www.gov.uk/government/n...

On CTV (Canada) last night discussing the implications of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i. Worth a watch if you have 6 minutes.

review.bellmedia.ca/view/265932503

Watch the video to the end and you see Trump's strategy: sustained attacks to weaken Iranian security and strategic targets (probably including leadership), until the Iranian people overthrow the regime.

This is trying to draw to an inside straight.

The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored

An important story on computer chip production that deserves to be read.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2026 Western sources continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives are not limited to control of Ukrainian territory.

Interesting.

understandingwar.org/research/rus...

Trump announces the United States will contribute $10 billion to the Board of Peace.

Iran Holds Exercises in Strait of Hormuz After Trump Threatens Military Action

This @nytimes.com article has been annoying me all day. The photo is described as the Strait of Hormuz, but it's not. Where is it? Kudos to whomever can figure out where it really is!

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/w...

Abolishing FEMA would hurt all Americans—particularly Trump voters Instead of abolishing the agency, US President Donald Trump should support fixing its problems, making it more efficient, and changing its focus to include strategic resilience.

This fits the pattern we noticed in January of last year: Abolishing FEMA would hurt all Americans, but particularly Trump voters. This map aligns with the numbers announced today.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Secretary Noem Unlocks More Than $2.2 Billion in Additional Federal Funding to Rebuild Communities Hit by Past Disasters | Homeland Security Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem announced more than $2.2 billion in disaster relief funding to support ongoing recovery efforts from a variety of natural disasters.

Interesting numbers in $2.2 billion in FEMA funding announced today for past disasters. The DHS press release lists only the 15 largest of 1,721 recovery projects, but of those $875 million, $768 million went to states that voted for President Trump.

www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01...

Exclusive: ICE officers in Minnesota directed not to interact with 'agitators' in new orders The new internal guidance reviewed by Reuters also orders U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to only target immigrants who have criminal charges or convictions.

An important change in Minnesota:

Exclusive: ICE officers in Minnesota directed not to interact with 'agitators' - www.reuters.com/world/ice-of...

TikTok's new privacy policy is sparking a backlash. Here's what to know. Some TikTok users are raising questions about the app's new terms and conditions after the social media platform's split from its China-based parent.

Still not downloading TikTok. Here's why.

tiktok's new privacy policy is sparking a backlash. here's what to know. www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-...

Loosening the Gordian Knot of Global Terrorism: Why Legitimacy Must Anchor a Counterterrorism Strategy OPINION — The global terrorism landscape in 2026 — the 25th anniversary year of the 9/11 terrorism attacks — is more uncertain, hybridized, and combustible than at any point since 9/11. Framing a soun...

A great analysis of counterterrorism strategy by Chris Costa and Colin Clarke: #CT

Loosening the Gordian Knot of Global Terrorism: Why Legitimacy Must Anchor a Counterterrorism Strategy www.thecipherbrief.com/loosening-th...

On Al-Jazeera Sunday night discussing the challenges ahead for the Board of Peace and the efforts to rebuild Gaza. Much depends on what happens in Davos in the coming days: President Trump will urge members to contribute serious amounts of money and troops for the International Stabilization Force.

Both the Damascus-based guest and the Kurdish guest got into it with each other at the end—proof that the mistrust runs deep. Amb. Barrack is right to regard this as both sides needing to work to gain the trust of the other.

Here’s Amb. Barrack’s tweet announcing the deal—praise for both sides, but short on specifics.

x.com/USAMBTurkiye...

On Ash-Sharq/Bloomberg talking about the Syria-SDF ceasefire agreement. Washington will need to keep encouraging both sides to live up to the terms of this agreement.

On Al-Hadath (Saudi Arabia) tonight talking about the challenges facing the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. They need commitments of money and troops that President Trump will be trying to nail down in Davos next week. Disarmament of Hamas is going to be a real challenge.

If they break that commitment, expect a far more forceful US response than his advisers recommended last week.

On Al-Jazeera tonight talking about Iran and President Trump’s unscripted statement to Politico about replacing Supreme Leader Khamenei. President Trump believes the Iranian government promised him no killings of protesters and no executions.

On the Al-Qahera (Egypt) News Channel Friday night, discussing the opening meetings of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. That’s the Committee on the left.

The crucial question is whether they will get the troops and money they need.

But if the regime shoots protesters or executes prisoners, Trump will launch far more severe strikes than was proposed by his advisers Wednesday. The choice is up to the Iranian regime: Do you want double, or nothing?

For Iran, it’s now “Double or nothing.” On Al-Jazeera tonight, I said President Trump considers the Iranian regime’s promise it would not shoot protesters and will not execute prisoners as a binding commitment. As long as the Iranian government honors this commitment, there will be no strikes.

On Al-Jazeera tonight, talking about the #WestBank, if Palestinians want to elevate the importance of ending #settlerviolence, Arab leaders will need to raise this with President Trump at the #BoardOfPeace meeting in #Davos next week.

Our Expert Panel on 2026 | Alhurra What keeps the Middle East awake at night in 2026? To find out, we reached out to two dozen of the leading voices in regional statecraft—ranging from a former Israeli Prime Minister to veteran Arab…

Top US experts on what's up for the Mideast in 2026:

alhurra.com/en/10012

Now comes the hard part: What Trump should do next to secure Venezuela’s democratic future The United States is now forced to depend on the remnants of the Maduro regime for the next stage in the mission.

Important and timely insights by my Atlantic Council colleague Jason Marczak:

www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/n...

New Year's fireworks and fountains at the Burj al-Khalifa in Dubai.

Happy New Year! May 2026 bring peace, security, prosperity, and tranquility throughout the world.

Russia’s most important Middle East base is not where you think Before its future in post-Assad Syria was determined, Russia was actively searching for alternative strategic relationships in the region.

An important update on Russia's activities in Libya, and the US response, by my Atlantic Council colleague Frank Talbot:

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menaso...