Thomas Warrick

A Memo in a Bunker, Intercepted Communications and Hamas’s Oct. 7 Plans

Expect more revelations like this in the weeks to come.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/w...

3 / 3 The world needs to build Tony Blair @InstituteGC’s Gaza Int'l Transitional Authority and its security force. If Hamas lays down weapons, good. If not, #GITA and the ISF should get ready to deploy to the parts of Gaza free of Hamas, and begin Gaza’s physical and social reconstruction.

2 / 3 Signs are Hamas wants to keep the weapons. But the world is calling on Hamas to disarm. There is no prospect that Arab governments will contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction if Hamas can re-take power, and then attack Israel, then Israel will destroy whatever was rebuilt.

1 / 3 On Ash-Sharq/Bloomberg, Al-Qahera, and Al-Jazeera today talking about the Gaza peace deal. Worth celebrating for all those who want to see a lasting peace. But (1) will Hamas agree to lay down its weapons? (2) Will countries agree to contribute peacekeeping troops?

Second question: Will Hamas agree to lay down its weapons? If not, Israel will say Hamas rejects @realDonaldTrump's plan.

It baffles me why some think the pressure Monday will be on Israel. It will be on Hamas.

On Al-Jazeera and Al-Jazeera English tonight, explaining that the pressure Monday in the talks in Egypt will be on Hamas: will they agree to the release of hostages within days? If not, Israel will say Hamas rejects President Trump’s plan.

6/6 There are many issues that could hold up peace. Hamas made no mention of laying down its arms, for example. But if this misunderstanding over sequencing is not clarified quickly, it could derail progress towards Trump’s peace deal, which, as Trump said, is the best available deal for peace.

5/6 I said that Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye mediators should seek immediate clarification whether Hamas agrees to the sequencing President Trump has in mind. We have two days until Trump’s deadline of Sunday 6 pm EDT.

4/6 Looking at the tone of Hamas’s response, it’s clear they were trying to be respectful to President Trump. And his response to Hamas reciprocates this respect.

3/6 The problem is this is not the only possible interpretation of Hamas’s response. Hamas could have intended the hostages be released only after other steps, like a Palestinian conference, that will take weeks, or the withdrawal of Israeli troops, which is not the sequence Trump has in mind.

2/6 President Trump read into Hamas’s response that the hostages should be freed in a matter of days. He told PM Netanyahu to stop the bombing of Gaza so the hostages could be safely moved from the tunnels to positions where they can be returned to their families.

1/6 On Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya, Al-Qahera, CTV News (Canada), Al-Ghad al-Arabi, and TRT World tonight talking about Hamas’s response to the Trump peace plan for Gaza. One big concern is sequencing.

How a UN Security Council resolution could help end the war in Gaza Drawing inspiration from an earlier example, the council should pass a one-time-only resolution authorizing an international transitional governing authority and security force.

While the Trump 20-point plan for Gaza has no UN role, there is a way a one-time-only, nonrenewable Security Council resolution could help, modeled on UNSCR 1031 (1995) for Bosnia.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

3/3 As President Trump tries to work a peace plan for Gaza with Israeli, Arab, European, and other world leaders, I would respectfully urge this is not a good time for lower-ranking officials to undercut the President’s Gaza peace initiative.

2/3 Arab leaders will then need to alert President Trump, e.g., by having the Qatari Prime Minister contact Steve Witkoff, or Saudi Crown Prince calling Jared Kushner, or UAE Amb. al-Otaiba calling Secretary Rubio. President Trump will not like it if ministers undercut him.

1/3 On Al-Jazeera Thursday talking about the West Bank. Now that President Trump has said no West Bank annexation, here's what concerns me: Trump emphasizes no annexation to PM Netanyahu on Monday. But when Netanyahu goes home, some Israeli ministers may try small steps to undercut Trump’s position.

The Plan itself is at:

jstribune.com/wp-content/u...

Postwar Gaza — What Will It Look Like? – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune Essays – Two years after October 7, 2023, governments are finally recognizing the need to adopt a plan for postwar Gaza, even while fighting is ongoing. On August

Postwar Gaza plans are now on the front burner in Washington and New York. Bob Silverman and I discuss our updated Plan for Postwar Gaza and other, comparable plans in this OpEd in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune:

jstribune.com/warrick-silv...

Plan for Postwar Gaza cover.

A group of former senior US officials, of whom I’m one, has released our updated Plan for Postwar Gaza on the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune website:

jstribune.com/wp-content/u...

On CTV News in Canada on Saturday talking about the visit of Secretary of State Rubio to Israel. The question is what he will say on behalf of President Trump about the Israeli efforts to annex the West Bank, which could undermine the Abraham Accords.

On BBC Arabic Sunday discussing the Rubio visit to Jerusalem. The open question is what message he conveyed about West Bank annexation. Annexation could disrupt the Abraham Accords and undermine one of Trump's most important diplomatic accomplishments.

On Al-Jazeera tonight, saying that @realDonaldTrump will ensure Qatari PM Mohammed Abdulrahman Al Thani hears tonight the depth of the US commitment to Qatar's security.

On Gaza, Trump can be expected to say no one will, or should, pay to rebuild Gaza until Hamas is out of power and disarmed.

Providing context and analysis on Israel’s strike against Hamas in Qatar, on Bloomberg’s “Insight with Haslinda Amin” on Sept. 9. | Tom Warrick Providing context and analysis on Israel’s strike against Hamas in Qatar, on Bloomberg’s “Insight with Haslinda Amin” on Sept. 9.

Providing context and analysis on Israel’s strike against Hamas in Qatar, on Bloomberg’s “Insight with Haslinda Amin” on Sept. 9.

www.linkedin.com/posts/tom-wa...

White House rebukes Israel over strike on Hamas in Qatar Trump condemned the attack. Analysts say his mixed messaging on the war emboldened Israel to take unilateral military action.

President Trump is obviously angry about this, as many people are. Let's see how the President plans to enforce his promise to Qatar that this will never happen again.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

As I explained on several news programs on Tuesday, Israel does not ask U.S. permission before conducting strikes it deems essential for its national security. Here is IsraeliPM Netanyahu explaining this in April 2025.

Quite a statement by the White House spokesperson criticizing the location of the Israeli strike against Hamas in Doha, Qatar.

Did you see this?

Prime Minister of Israel on X: "Prime Minister's Office: Today's action against the top terrorist chieftains of Hamas was a wholly independent Israeli operation. Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility." / X Prime Minister's Office: Today's action against the top terrorist chieftains of Hamas was a wholly independent Israeli operation. Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility.

x.com/IsraeliPM/st...

On Al-Ghad al-Arabi (Egypt) on Tuesday talking about the Israeli strike against Hamas in Doha, explaining that the United States does not give "green lights" to strikes like this, as the tweet from the Israeli Prime Minister's office made clear.

Strengthening Efforts to Protect U.S. Nationals from Wrongful Detention Abroad By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the Robert Levinson Hostage

So this Executive Order going after countries that wrongfully detain Americans deserves broad support. We'll deal with "retaliation" by Iran, Russia, China, etc. later. This order is good news.

www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...