@mark-wx.bsky.social
NOAA/NWS meteorologist at WPC.
WPC has initiated Key Messages for an impending coastal storm that will look to generate strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and significant coastal impacts that include coastal flooding, rip currents, and beach erosion along portions of the East Coast over the upcoming weekend.
08.10.2025 18:13 β π 85 π 21 π¬ 1 π 4
Global Ensemble Forecast System mean precipitable water and 700-mb winds valid on Saturday morning, 11 October 2025. A big plume of moisture will be transported into the southwest US ahead of decaying Hurricane Priscilla. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ens.php
Standardized anomaly of precipitable water from the ECWMF ensemble mean on Saturday morning, 11 October 2025. It shows a broad swath of greater than +3 standard deviations in the western US. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ecmwf.php
Ensemble forecast plume showing precipitable water at Grand Junction, Colorado in the members of the ECWMF ensemble. Values are predicted to be around 25-30 mm with high confidence on Friday 10 October through Saturday 11 October, far above the 90th percentile for the date. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ecmwf.php
Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2
08.10.2025 14:23 β π 62 π 24 π¬ 4 π 1Straight into my veins.
06.09.2025 12:37 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0What if morale is improving because of our August cold air damming? π
21.08.2025 21:27 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
2.39β in the gauge from this eveningβs downpour. #MDwx
20.07.2025 00:33 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Think itβs been especially humid in the DMV lately? Youβd be right. Avg dew point (computed by averaging daily max/min dew point) at the three major climate sites (BWI/DCA/IAD) for July 2025 thru today all top 2 on record, and BWI is #1. Yuck. Made via mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/ # 140
17.07.2025 23:36 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
WPC issued as many as six MPDs for the deadly flash flooding in the TX Hill Country starting yesterday evening and lasting through much of today. The first MPD generally set the stage for what was to come, while the next three shown were as the event unfolded.
05.07.2025 00:03 β π 442 π 137 π¬ 5 π 43
69 degree dew point this morning. #nice
16.05.2025 13:34 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 2-3 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.
NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 3-4 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.
NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 4-5 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.
NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 5-6 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.
We often (rightly) see maps like these showing how good SPC convective outlooks are; let's also give some kudos to WPC for some outstanding excessive rainfall outlooks for this event. Especially impressive are the day 5 outlooks, giving advance notice of prolonged excessive rainfall and flood risk.
06.04.2025 22:00 β π 92 π 30 π¬ 1 π 0
