Stacie Pettyjohn

Hellscape for Taiwan Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

@mollykcam.bsky.social & my new report: "Hellscape for Taiwan"

We propose a layered drone defense—from 80 km out to the beaches—that could stop an invasion at the water's edge.

4 layers. Cross-domain fires. A theory of victory Taiwan can own.
www.cnas.org/publications...

I noted that "coordination has been lacking" increasing the risk of "cowboy behavior."

As Dems push for briefing on El Paso incident, experts warn it could be the ‘tip of the iceberg’ - Breaking Defense “I think coordination has been lacking, and you're seeing a lot more sort of cowboy behavior, which could be problematic,” Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the ...

New from @breakingdefense.com by Michael Marrow & Val Insinna.

The El Paso shootdown highlights the hard work ahead to safely implement new counter-drone authorities for DoD, DHS, & local agencies.

breakingdefense.com/2026/02/as-d...

The Pentagon would be wise to take note of Russia's approach as it pursues its own AI-enabled C2 — start with what works at the edge, not what looks good on a briefing slide (with lots of lightning bolts and lines). See CRS report for more on JADC2
www.everycrsreport.com/files/2022-0...

How Russia Is Reshaping Command and Control for AI-Enabled Warfare Kateryna Bondar examines how Russia conceptualizes, builds, and adapts its command and control (C2) architecture under wartime pressures, in the first installment of a series on Russia’s use of AI in ...

And don't miss Kateryna Bondar's CSIS report on how Russia has abandoned it monolithic AI-enabled C2 ambitions in favor of tactical systems that solve immediate battlefield problems.
www.csis.org/analysis/how...

How Russia Recovered What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

Also highly recommend @massdara.bsky.social's Foreign Affairs article on how Russia has regrouped — building a learning ecosystem that turns tactical adaptations into long-term institutional reforms.
foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-russia-recovered

Key point: the tradeoff between decentralized innovation (Ukraine's strength) versus the ability to rapidly scale adaptations into fielded systems (Russia's advantage).

I explored this dynamic early in the war in my
@cnas.bsky.social report on drone warfare:

Russian and Ukrainian Battlefield Adaptations with Dara Massicot and Kateryna Bondar | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts Max and Maria had a livestreamed conversation in the CSIS Brack Studio with Dara Massicot and Kateryna Bondar to discuss Russian and Ukrainian battlefield adaptations and technological innovations.

Excellent episode of the Russian Roulette podcast on Ukrainian and Russian wartime adaptations w/@maxbergmann.bsky.social, @msnegovaya.bsky.social. @massdara.bsky.social, and Kateryna Bondar 🎧
csis.org/podcasts/russian-roulette/russian-and-ukrainian-battlefield-adaptations-dara-massicot-and-kateryna

YouTube video by Center for a New American Security (CNAS) U.S. Defense at an Inflection Point: The 2026 National Defense Strategy

ICYMI: The Pentagon released its defense strategy last Friday. Our @cnas.bsky.social panel—@beccawasser.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Dustin Walker & me—broke down the document and graded it. The results weren't pretty.

Watch our analysis here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3wr...

U.S. Defense at an Inflection Point: The 2026 National Defense Strategy The 2026 National Defense Strategy arrives at a critical juncture and marks an unprecedented shift in U.S. As the Department of Defense translates…

This afternoon at 2 pm I am breaking down the Trump administration's defense strategy on a @cnas.bsky.social pop up virtual panel with Dr. Mara Karlin, Dustin Walker, & @beccawasser.bsky.social

www.cnas.org/events/u-s-d...

The irony is that this approach could hurt the very warfighters it aims to help. If investors believe defense companies face nationalization risk, these firms will struggle to raise capital, which is the opposite of what we need to rebuild industrial capacity.

More concerning: this EO could fundamentally transform U.S. defense companies from private businesses into quasi-public utilities dependent on taxpayer subsidies.

The Pentagon bears significant responsibility for our current industrial capacity shortfall. It has been an unreliable customer that fluctuates between feast and famine, creating uncertainty that makes long-term investment in production lines risky.

Yes, the defense industry needs to produce weapons faster. But the problem isn't stock buybacks or corporate greed.

Bottom line: The EO misdiagnoses the defense industrial base's weakness and could backfire by pushing us toward a state-owned defense sector that's less innovative and less productive.

Are defense firms showering their shareholders with too much money? : The Indicator from Planet Money In early January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order threatening bans on defense contractors paying dividends or buying their stock back.Today on the show, we learn about the Trump Admin...

I spoke with Darian Woods on The Indicator from Planet Money about Trump's executive order attempting to prohibit defense contractors from buying back stock or paying dividends.
www.npr.org/2026/01/20/n...

Ooh I just saw this. So slow

MWI Podcast: Europe’s Airspace Violations and the Counterdrone Challenge - Modern War Institute Late on the night of September 9, twenty-one medium-sized, fixed-wing drones were detected entering Poland's airspace. Polish and NATO aircraft were quickly scrambled, with several of the drones succe...

I enjoyed talking with John Amble about European air defenses and the counter drone problem more generally on the Modern War institute podcast.

mwi.westpoint.edu/mwi-podcast-...

Recommended

YouTube video by DW News Which technology offers the best defense against drones? Lasers or mobile gun trucks? | DW News

I joined DW news to discuss the various drone incursions into European airspace and what options NATO has to counter them.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKYF...

Countering the Swarm The counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.

You can find the report Countering the Swarm: Protecting the Joint Force in the Drone Age here

www.cnas.org/publications...

Countering the Swarm: America’s Drone Deterrence Strategy - At The Boundary 🎙️ At the Boundary reaches its 100th episode with a critical conversation on one of the fastest-growing threats in modern warfare: drones. Host Jim Cardoso is joined by Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly ...

Earlier this week @molkathcam & I were thrilled to be on the 100th episode of the At the Boundary podcast to discuss our new @cnas.bsky.social report on drone defenses with Jim Cardoso

attheboundary.buzzsprout.com/2231197/epis...

NATO’s Counter-Drone Conundrum Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

Tune in to the @cnas.bsky.social ’s Brussel Sprouts podcast for a lively and wide-ranging conversation with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Michael Kofman, James Joye Townsend Jr., & me on Russian drones incursions & how NATO can counter them.

www.cnas.org/publications...

Countering the Swarm The counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.

The drone age is here. My latest @cnas.bsky.social report with @spettyjohn.bsky.social argues that the Pentagon must rapidly scale counter-drone defenses and build resilience within the Joint Force, or risk losing a war against China. Check it out! ⬇️ www.cnas.org/publications...

A grey background featuring the book cover for 'How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory' by Franz-Stefan Gady. The cover is red and features a member of the People’s Liberation Army Navy shouting.

📢 Out Now

'Uncomfortable but essential reading.' — @ldfreedman.bsky.social

'How the United States Would Fight China' by
@hoanssolo.bsky.social draws on superb research to reveal the significant risk to the US in a potential conflict with China.

Get 25% off w/code GADY25 ➡️ tinyurl.com/yuvttv3e

This BBC Inquiry podcast is a good overview on how drones are transforming the battlefield. It features Elke Schwarz , James Rogers, Oleksandra Molloy, & me. I focus on how to counter the rapidly growing threat posed by small drones .
bbc.com/audio/play/w...

Three sharp minds. One messy world. In the latest @warontherocks.bsky.social episode, I am joined by @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Justin Logan & Wess Mitchell to talk about hard choices in the sequencing of American strategy. We have some pretty sharp disagreements too
pod.link/682478916/ep...

'Spider's Web' warning: The US must prioritize drone defense to avoid Russia’s fate - Breaking Defense CNAS's Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell argue in this op-ed that Ukraine's clandestine operation should be a wake-up call for the US military and its own base defense.

In @breakingdefense.com Molly Campbell & I argue that Ukraine’s spiderweb drone attack on Russian airbases should be a wake up call for the United States. The DoD needs to make significantly larger investments in CUAS for home & abroad.

breakingdefense.com/2025/06/spid...

With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more

YouTube video by Center for a New American Security (CNAS) The Future of Warfare with General David Allvin

ICYMI here is the video from the @cnas.bsky.social conference of my conversation with Air Force Chief Gen Allvin where we discussed force design, Golden dome, drone attacks, the budget, & more.

youtu.be/I3nTs1RZhwA?...