Olesya Vartanyan

Years ago Tamara joked that prison might help her lose weight. That came back to me when I learned that she has declared a hunger strike. I hope she stays well, and that we support Tamara, who has shown us that resistance still matters, even in the most hopeless situations.

It is telling that she was detained by the prosecutor’s office, not the security services, suggesting the case comes directly from the local leadership and may not even be sanctioned by Moscow.

Local activist and vocal government critic detained in South Ossetia on ‘espionage’ charges Mearakishvili has spent recent years in exhausting legal battles with local authorities.

Over the years, Tamara has earned widespread respect for being a fighter, and become a role model for many locals and outside observers alike. Even in this closed society, voices are now emerging to protest her detention. oc-media.org/local-activi...

Tamara has always been principled and has avoided any cooperation with authorities, no matter where they came from, despite repeated attempts to co-opt her. Ironically, the same de facto leadership that has now imprisoned her once promoted her innocence when coming to power.

I am sure she will fight this case too. Anything Tamara knows she has always shared openly on social media. Years of defending her own rights and those of Ossetians and Georgians in this tiny region have made her almost unbreakable, yet deeply human and open to friendship.

This is not the first time Tamara has faced such persecution. About a decade ago, a similar case was launched to strip her of local documents. It led to years of court battles, enormous pressure, and poverty. But in the end Tamara once again proved her innocence.

My friend Tamara Mearakishvili is behind bars in South Ossetia. Local authorities have accused her of espionage, which could keep her in prison for over a decade. Tamara is absolutely innocent, and the charges appear driven by a personal vendetta of the local de facto leadership.

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5/ I’m very honored that this piece was published by
@unitartupress.bsky.social's De Facto States Research Unit, whose work has shaped this field for years: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...

4/ The key lesson from NK’s experience: don’t procrastinate. Stay vigilant as the world changes, and engage pragmatically with conflicts that are far from resolved.

3/ These reflections are not only for niche experts, but for anyone thinking about the future of similar entities - including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

2/ In the blog I examine what happens when your main external supporter disappears, you fail to find new ones, and there’s no presence/effective engagement with international organizations.

1/ How Statelets Die? I look at this question through the story of Nagorno-Karabakh - once one of the most “successful” de facto entities in the post-Soviet space, and today something no one even wants to remember. Link here: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...

The EU will discuss suspending visa-free travel for Georgian citizens by the end of this year, according to the results of today’s EU Foreign Council meeting. rb.gy/bd7esb

See this white device in #GEOLocalElections2025? It acknowledges a key flaw in last year’s parliamentary vote: the machines failed to ensure secrecy, letting the ruling party control results. The opposition even demanded new elections, which Georgian Dream still refuses.

One of today’s stunning moments from local elections: Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of ruling Georgian Dream, froze when a journalist shouted a question about possible new UK sanctions. U.S. sanctions have already cost him a good part of his fortune.

Georgians are still showing they’re able and willing to protest. Even as the regime jails dozens and imposes huge fines just for appearing in the street. #GeorgiaProtests

How Dictators Hunt Enemies Abroad #92: With Nate Schenkkan

This week in the newsletter: @nateschenkkan.bsky.social on assassinations, abductions and other forms of transnational repression

thehundred.substack.com/p/how-dictat...

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House.
Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace? Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

8/ Whatever happens next, the Washington summit has already made history. Its biggest achievement: raising confidence that another war in the South Caucasus is not imminent - if not for decades, then at least for the coming months and perhaps years. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

7/ And yes, there’s still a talk of Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. If that happens, he might even show up in DCAF's next crosswords of the winners! (You can test your knowledge here: dcaf.ch/sites/defaul...)

6/ But the biggest factor is still Turkey. If Ankara does not agree to open its border with Armenia, the “peace through transit” vision will remain incomplete. Talks between Armenian & Turkish delegations are expected soon - and could be decisive.

5/ Much will depend on whether the EU steps in with funds for infrastructure. Just last week, the EU Special Representative’s team toured the region to explore options.

4/ On the transit route, the real challenge is still ahead. The devil is very much in the details - those can either make the deal work or sink it entirely.

3/ The treaty also implies ending legal disputes at international courts and likely beginning talks on the future of the EU Mission in Armenia - possibly downsized & re-focused to avoid angering Baku.

2/ The piece offers insights into how the summit came together. One major outcome: initiation of a peace treaty. Not the final step, but Baku & Yerevan can now start discussing appointing ambassadors - likely first based outside each other’s capitals, perhaps even in Tbilisi.

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House.
Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

"gli accordi di pace diventano ostaggi dei mutamenti geopolitici e rischiano di degenerare in un preludio a nuovi conflitti, sfollamenti di massa e guerre prolungate."

Ora anche in italiano su @balcanicaucaso.org l'importante contributo di @olesyavart.bsky.social

Beyond the Ceremony: The Real Test for Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,

Washington’s signing ceremony holds the promise of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the real work—steady, patient and far from the cameras—is only beginning, writes @olesyavart.bsky.social.

Great thread on the significance of and challenges ahead of of today's Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in D.C. ⬇️