Olesya Vartanyan

See this white device in #GEOLocalElections2025? It acknowledges a key flaw in last year’s parliamentary vote: the machines failed to ensure secrecy, letting the ruling party control results. The opposition even demanded new elections, which Georgian Dream still refuses.

One of today’s stunning moments from local elections: Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of ruling Georgian Dream, froze when a journalist shouted a question about possible new UK sanctions. U.S. sanctions have already cost him a good part of his fortune.

Georgians are still showing they’re able and willing to protest. Even as the regime jails dozens and imposes huge fines just for appearing in the street. #GeorgiaProtests

How Dictators Hunt Enemies Abroad #92: With Nate Schenkkan

This week in the newsletter: @nateschenkkan.bsky.social on assassinations, abductions and other forms of transnational repression

thehundred.substack.com/p/how-dictat...

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House.
Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace? Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

8/ Whatever happens next, the Washington summit has already made history. Its biggest achievement: raising confidence that another war in the South Caucasus is not imminent - if not for decades, then at least for the coming months and perhaps years. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

7/ And yes, there’s still a talk of Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. If that happens, he might even show up in DCAF's next crosswords of the winners! (You can test your knowledge here: dcaf.ch/sites/defaul...)

6/ But the biggest factor is still Turkey. If Ankara does not agree to open its border with Armenia, the “peace through transit” vision will remain incomplete. Talks between Armenian & Turkish delegations are expected soon - and could be decisive.

5/ Much will depend on whether the EU steps in with funds for infrastructure. Just last week, the EU Special Representative’s team toured the region to explore options.

4/ On the transit route, the real challenge is still ahead. The devil is very much in the details - those can either make the deal work or sink it entirely.

3/ The treaty also implies ending legal disputes at international courts and likely beginning talks on the future of the EU Mission in Armenia - possibly downsized & re-focused to avoid angering Baku.

2/ The piece offers insights into how the summit came together. One major outcome: initiation of a peace treaty. Not the final step, but Baku & Yerevan can now start discussing appointing ambassadors - likely first based outside each other’s capitals, perhaps even in Tbilisi.

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House.
Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

"gli accordi di pace diventano ostaggi dei mutamenti geopolitici e rischiano di degenerare in un preludio a nuovi conflitti, sfollamenti di massa e guerre prolungate."

Ora anche in italiano su @balcanicaucaso.org l'importante contributo di @olesyavart.bsky.social

Beyond the Ceremony: The Real Test for Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia,

Washington’s signing ceremony holds the promise of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the real work—steady, patient and far from the cameras—is only beginning, writes @olesyavart.bsky.social.

Great thread on the significance of and challenges ahead of of today's Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in D.C. ⬇️

"U.S. Involvement in Baku-Yerevan Talks Is Good News for the South Caucasus" — Olesya Vartanyan - Batumelebi Stories from the South Caucasus •

🗣️“The activation of the U.S. is particularly important for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and, more broadly, for the South Caucasus,” says Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on South Caucasus affairs, aboutWashington’s initiative to improve relations between Baku and Yerevan.

#SouthCaucasus
#Caucasus

12/ Whether it ends in a handshake or another deadlock, this DC meeting will be a turning point - hopefully for better, not worse - in the decades-long Armenia–Azerbaijan saga.

📷 The White House

11/ Still, this is a historic moment.

It’s the Armenian PM’s first Oval Office visit - despite strong ties with the Biden administration, Pashinyan had never made it there.

More notably, no Armenian or Azerbaijani leaders have ever held a joint meeting at the White House.

10/ Meanwhile, plenty of risks remain. Armenia and Azerbaijan have a much longer history of broken deals and wars than of successful diplomacy.

Recall: the April 2016 escalation followed a failed U.S.-led summit.

9/ One open question: who pays for all this?

Armenia had looked to the EU to support road rehabilitation. But with Brussels playing a limited role in current negotiations, it’s unclear who would fund infrastructure on the ground.

8/ Here too, views diverge:

▪️Azerbaijan wants to prioritize the so-called Zangezur corridor in southern Armenia.

▪️Armenia wants all its borders reopened - shut by Turkey and Azerbaijan since the 1990s.

U.S. proposal for Armenia-Azerbaijan route is a broad concept, not a finalized plan, expert says - CIVILNET By Elen Muradyan The United States has presented only a broad conceptual outline—not a finalized plan—for managing a prospective transit route through Armenia’s Syunik province, said South Caucasus co...

7/ Another likely announcement in DC: transport routes through Armenia.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration proposed that a U.S. private company help facilitate new South Caucasus transit links. www.civilnet.am/en/news/9651...

Why Armenia Is Seeking to Normalize Relations With Turkiye Armenia is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Türkiye, betting that improved ties could either unlock a peace deal with Azerbaijan or at least help prevent another military flare-up along its ten...

6/ Will Armenia consider that enough? That depends on Turkey. Three years ago, Armenia and Turkey agreed to start normalizing ties - borders, trade, and more. But the process was blocked by Azerbaijan.

No peace deal - no open border. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

5/ Despite that, there are signs of movement.

Aliyev recently said Azerbaijan may agree to initiate - though not sign - the peace deal, preserving the current text.

It’s still an important step that offers hope for stability in a region still prone to flare-ups. president.az/en/articles/...

The Window for an Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Is Closing Even though Yerevan and Baku have formally reached an agreement to end their thirty-five-year conflict, it’s unclear whether the document will actually be signed.

4/ The main sticking point: Baku wants Armenia to amend its constitution - a move that’s politically risky and slow. The text of the peace deal exists, but signatures are still missing. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

3/ The delay in formal announcements appears intentional.

While peace talks concluded months ago, key issues remain unresolved. Washington may be hosting, but it’s still unclear what - if anything - will be announced.

2/ The meeting had been the subject of speculation for days. Only now, as Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan’s motorcade heads to the airport - shown by Russian state media - is the visit being confirmed by officials in Yerevan.

1/ If you’re enjoying your summer, Donald Trump is about to interrupt it - possibly with significant news.

He’s expected to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Oval Office this week. The goal: a handshake after 30+ years of conflict. But much remains uncertain. 🧵

📷 by AFP

Daughter of the crying man Podcast Episode · Country of Dust · 17/07/2025 · 42m

Have a listen to this moving story of an Armenian family finding their old home and relatives in Turkey - and building bonds with a community later hit by the 2023 earthquake. Try not to tear up. podcasts.apple.com/md/podcast/d...