Aaron ❌👑

Decrease of 3 points in average swing toward Dems is probably just random? (e.g., elections later in the year have happened to be elections where Dems were less competitive).

Esp. given that Trump's popularity has only decreased over the past several months.

Interesting to look back at this post from Sep 2025 given the recent TN house seat election.

Average swing toward Dems for 2025 relative to 2024 presidential is now 13 pts (down from 16 in Sep).

TN election was same as current avg, 13 pt swing from 2024. Love that this spreadsheet stays updated!

"Home price explosions like this are not normal, they’re a result of years of reckless monetary policies.

The solution to this affordability...is not lower mortgage rates, but unwinding the home price explosion."

wolfstreet.com/2025/11/29/m...

The president's net approval rating is -19%, down 1.4 points since last week. 38% approve, 57% disapprove, 4% not sure

"Once the honeymoon is over, presidents tend to lose popularity quickly. But no recent president has fallen so low so quickly as Donald Trump."

www.economist.com/interactive/...

"If the U.S. military operation is not an armed conflict of any kind, these orders to kill helpless civilians clinging to the wreckage of a vessel our military destroyed would subject everyone from SECDEF down to the individual who pulled the trigger to prosecution under U.S. law for murder."

Just canceled our paid Spotify subscription and are switching to Apple Music (higher quality sound anyway 😊).

We will not support a company that runs ads for ICE or that supports ICE in any way.

#CancelSpotify

Trump is VERY unpopular

Thank you Jimmy Kimmel for a great nickname cheat sheet :)
bsky.app/profile/jimm...

Kim Don Un won't be satisfied until he turns the White House into Mar-a-Lardo North

1. Swear in Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva
2. Release the Epstein Files

#Grijalva

Pelosi Says Police May Arrest Federal Agents Who Violate California Law

State and city police arresting and charging *anyone* who breaks state laws seems like a no-brainer to me.

Since when do federal agents have immunity from state laws? Can you imagine giving a whole class of people carte blanche to break state laws?

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/u...

So if the govt shutdown continues, eventually many federal workers working wo pay will call in sick in large numbers, esp air travel workers. That wld effectively shut down air travel in the US.

Cld that be an ideal time to start a general strike?

#generalstrike

We have come to expect a dose of political theater in the political branches, drama designed to rally the base or to rile or intimidate political opponents. We also may expect there a measure of bending sometimes breaking the truth. By design of the Founders, the judicial branch stands apart. We rule on facts, not on supposition or conjecture, and certainly not on fabrication or propaganda. I urge my colleagues on this court to act swiftly to vacate the majority's order before the illegal deployment of troops under false pretenses can occur. Above all, I ask those who are watching this case unfold to retain faith in our judicial system for just a little longer.

Divided Ninth Circuit panel stays injunction against President Trump’s federalization of National Guard troops in Portland:

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Judge Graber, who is no firebrand, wrote quite a dissent—encouraging en banc review and some patience on the part of the public:

Protester wearing a yellow jacket and carrying a sign that says "Our democracy doesn't defend itself, We the People do"

#nokings Providence, RI

Beautiful, peaceful, and HUGE #nokings protest in Providence yesterday. We marched from the Statehouse through the city and back to the Statehouse. The "river" of people marching was so long it formed a complete loop miles long. Rhode Island SHOWED UP in defense of our democracy.

Beautiful video showing #nokings protests around the country, from big cities to small towns. I am filled with hope.

ClearSky ClearSky - Bringing information closer to you

@clearsky.app has created a free public app for this using (what i assume to be) publicly available data.

Here is the data for JD's account, for example:

clearsky.app/jd-vance-1.b...

Bookmarking this one!

Wow that is so F'ed up. Thank you for sharing.

Map of continental United States with blue dots indicating every No Kings event scheduled for this Saturday, October 18

Just looking at this map of #NoKings events for this Saturday gives me hope. There are SO many events. Can't wait to march with my friends and neighbors.

www.nokings.org#map

Hope

*Kidnapped* by Immigration Agents

Photo from Chicago: DHS militarized agent holding a gun up directly in someone’s face as the victim has their hands up, pleading for them not to shoot.

Please remind us who the domestic terrorists are again.

Good :)

I love this new development and it fits. Progressivism has always been better at humor (e.g., Colbert, Fallon, SNL, Daily Show, ...) because humor must have at its core sincerity, truth, irony, and vulnerability - all of which are anathema to MAGAism. We are stronger when we embrace our strengths!

"You have to unite people with empathy and love and community and shared values as a force against the hate."

👏👏👏

So true and such a good perspective. The protests just keep getting bigger and bigger. Ever more people engaged. Democratic leaders standing firmer. That all means ever more chances to make real, positive, and lasting change in the country.

We must all be witnesses in this moment. This is a criminal regime breaking the law, harming people, and instilling terror. There must be consequences for these people to make sure this never happens again. We know nothing will happen at the federal level rn- can the state prosecute?

Wow, Republicans must be terrified of releasing the Epstein Files. What are they hiding?

Gonna be thinking about this lede for a minute.