Lesley Anne Warner, PhD @lesleyannewarner

Gen Z Uprisings Underscore a Crisis of Legitimacy in African Democracies From Antananarivo to Rabat, young demonstrators have taken to the streets carrying a message that the social contract has been broken and their patience has run out. Over the past 18 months, youth-led protests have rattled Morocco’s constitutional monarchy, forced Kenyan President William Ruto to withdraw a controversial tax hike, and toppled the government of Andry Rajoelina in Madagascar. Like their

Gen Z Uprisings Underscore a Crisis of Legitimacy in African Democracies

31.10.2025 15:35 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The Death of Odinga, a Consummate Dealmaker, Upends Kenyan Politics In life, Raila Amolo Odinga was both kingmaker and perennial challenger, as well as a practitioner of political dealmaking who repeatedly reshaped Kenya’s democratic landscape through strategic alliances. His death last week at the age of 80 complicates incumbent President William Ruto’s path to a second term in the 2027 elections due to Odinga’s key role in the ethnic and regional alignments necessary for Ruto—or any politician for that matter—to secure the country’s top office.

The Death of Odinga, a Consummate Dealmaker, Upends Kenyan Politics

20.10.2025 13:03 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Lesley Anne Warner has a lengthy piece about how the U.S. backing away from human rights and democracy concerns will trickle down through Africa to give dictators and autocrats greater leeway to act against civil liberties and the rule of law.

01.08.2025 14:26 — 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

With a Fourth-Term Bid, Cote d’Ivoire’s Ouattara Is Playing With Fire The Cote d’Ivoire president’s bid for controversial fourth term could backfire, with implications for the country and the region.

Cote d’Ivoire’s announced this week that he will run for a controversial fourth term, a move that threatens to reverse years of painstaking progress in the country to consolidate peace and promote social cohesion, @lesleyannewarner.bsky.social writes.

02.08.2025 00:00 — 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

Seven Pillars of Military Integration for DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord These pillars outline requirements to manage armed groups and integrate them into statutory military forces during a war-to-peace transition.

The US-brokered DRC–Rwanda peace accord contains a major stumbling block: military integration.

Conflict, stabilization and political transition expert @lesleyannewarner.bsky.social outlines 7 “pillars” for success:

www.justsecurity.org/118753/drc-r...

11.08.2025 12:52 — 👍 14 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

Seven Pillars of Military Integration for the DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord Efforts by the United States and Qatar to end the decades-long conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo have accelerated significantly since late June, building on earlier mediation initiatives led by the African Union, the East African Community, and the Luanda and Nairobi processes. The conflict originated in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, and the current phase of diplomacy was catalyzed by a foundational U.S.-brokered DRC–Rwanda

Seven Pillars of Military Integration for the DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord

11.08.2025 14:06 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

With a Fourth-Term Bid, Cote d’Ivoire’s Ouattara Is Playing With Fire After months of playing coy, President Alassane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire announced earlier this week that he will run for a controversial fourth term in the country’s presidential election in October. In preparing the ground for his announcement, Ouattara has made Cote d’Ivoire’s economic performance central to his electoral strategy. Since he first came to power following the 2010-2011 post-election crisis that claimed over 3,000 lives, Cote d’Ivoire has experienced a remarkable economic recovery.

With a Fourth-Term Bid, Cote d’Ivoire’s Ouattara Is Playing With Fire

01.08.2025 13:23 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

From ‘Defending the Defenders’ to Diplomatic Desertion With recent popular protests in Kenya and Togo and election-like events on the docket in Cameroon and Uganda in the coming months, I wrote about how we used to tactically use the USG's moral and diplomatic support to 'defend the defenders' of democracy and human rights in Africa when I was on the Hill. It goes without saying that, in Africa and abroad, we are not at all consistent in deploying this support.

From 'Defending the Defenders' to Diplomatic Desertion: The Significance of the U.S. Government Ceasing Moral and Diplomatic Support to Pro-Democracy Activists in Africa

28.07.2025 13:52 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1

Reading between the lines of H.R. 2633 (aka the South Africa bill) On a recent call, a client was asking about H.R.2633 (U.S.-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025), which is now scheduled to be marked up by the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) this morning. (Note: For those unfamiliar with Hill process, a markup is when Committee members debate, amend, and vote on legislation before it can advance to the full House floor.

Reading between the lines of H.R. 2633 (aka the South Africa bill)

22.07.2025 11:31 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

South Sudan’s Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script While conflict isn’t inevitable, a convergence of familiar patterns in South Sudan has significantly increased the risk of renewed violence.

While conflict isn’t inevitable, a convergence of familiar patterns in South Sudan has significantly increased the risk of renewed violence, @lesleyannewarner.bsky.social writes.

20.06.2025 17:34 — 👍 3 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1

South Sudan’s Latest Crisis is Following a Familiar Script (Originally published in World Politics Review on June 20, 2025) In February, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir abruptly dismissed two of the country’s five vice presidents, and the following month, Vice President Riek Machar—Kiir’s longtime rival—was detained and placed under house arrest, where he has remained since then. The developments in Juba bear troubling similarities to the political dynamics that precipitated the country’s civil war from 2013 to 2018.

South Sudan's Latest Crisis is Following a Familiar Script

20.06.2025 13:59 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

“The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals—Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control” Earlier this week, I attended a very thought-provoking CFR panel on “The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals—Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control” moderated by Heidi Crebo-Rediker, with David Abraham, Gracelin Baskaran, PhD, Helaina Matza and Laura Taylor-Kale, PhD. Capitalizing on the expertise on stage, I asked their opinions on the value-add for U.S. companies as part of the anticipated DRC critical minerals deal, and asked them to look over-the-horizon and tell us what they thought the demand for critical minerals would be in three decades, based on the reality that we’re currently playing catch up.

“The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals—Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control”

Earlier this week, I attended a very thought-provoking CFR panel on “The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals—Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control” moderated by Heidi Crebo-Rediker, with David Abraham, Gracelin Baskaran,…

05.06.2025 17:16 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Quick Reflections on DRC/Liberia Election to the UN Security Council If there were an administration in the U.S. next year that valued the UN - and multilateralism more broadly - the election of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Liberia to the UN Security Council would be a strategic windfall. Why? Because all three African non-permanent members of the Security Council next year (DRC, Liberia, Somalia) are relatively pro-American countries (under normal circumstances).

Quick Reflections on DRC/Liberia Election to the UN Security Council

If there were an administration in the U.S. next year that valued the UN - and multilateralism more broadly - the election of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Liberia to the UN Security Council would be a strategic…

04.06.2025 16:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Lesley Anne Warner, PhD

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