Agreiz

"Pootinism is soviet rule without electricity!" --Lenin or something

Now, one could say that the MAX spyware messenger, the cut to mobile Internet, etc. are there to prevent people from talking about a shadow mobilization and what best route to use to flee.

But I doubt russia can truly be successful.

In addition, political repression has intensified. Greatly.

And despite that, there are more protests in russia now than there was before.

So there are both political and financial reasons to flee russia. If mobilization is back, a new exodus seems inevitable.

Now. The economy is in a much worse state than it was back in 2022. Not just that but the prospects for the russian economy is that it is only going to get worse, whereas back in 2022 it was possible to hope things would get back to normal relatively quickly.

Will that work?

There was a first mobilization, which legally speaking has never been ended, so it's just technically paused. The outcome was that for every meatcube they mobilized, there were two or three russian men who fled abroad.

That's why they shifted to the recruitment bonus strategy.

Only then will it perhaps make sense to talk about using Ukrainian forces for something else than the direct defense of Ukraine.

But as long as the EU doesn't have this kind of power, then it's ludicrous to talk as if it had the ability to deploy Ukrainian troops wherever it wants. Ukraine isn't even in the EU yet.

So, first give the EU some military muscle. And then use it to help Ukraine. By fighting against russia.

I mean, it makes sense that those would be very difficult things to obtain. The EU is a Union of independent and sovereign countries. There aren't many good precedents for deploying foreign forces on your own territory without it being your decision to host them for whatever reason.

Maybe it wouldn't be a Union-level army, at least not yet, but at least the ability for the EU to assume command of units of national military forces.

That's a first, huge, hurdle to cross.

Then it needs to have the ability to deploy those units outside of their own country. Another huge hurdle.

There's no EU mechanism for sending a country's troops to defend another country's border. Closest you get is Frontex and that's not a military agency.

So the first step for this proposal is to give the EU some sort of actual military power -- a big step on the path to federalization.

"If you try to solve the task of making the golden eggs more golden by choosing the option that destroys the hens that lay these eggs, that doesn't seem to be a very good policy." --A future window jumper.

bsky.app/profile/bbcs...

The cracks are appearing everywhere.
bsky.app/profile/bbcs...

They can't hide it anymore.
bsky.app/profile/bbcs...

The new GOELRO: "pootinism is Soviet power minus electrification of the whole country".

Washington should promote new sanctions to paralyze Russian industry and force Putin to GTFO of Ukraine.

Fuck that "negotiating table" nonsense. What happened to "we don't negotiate with terrorists"?

There's nothing to negotiate with russia besides their surrendering of war criminals to the ICC.

So, the very worst sectors are:
1. transports and logistics
2. economic development of the country
3. management of state property
4. access to their natural resources
5. enforcement of quality standards

So, going from 0^0 to 0^1 is, technically, an exponential increase.

What is an exponential increase over 0?

"The Russian budget must protect the interests of Russian citizens..."

Choose your punchline:
"... because sure as Hell nothing else will!"
"... but it won't."
"... and we get to decide what those interests are."
"... but only siloviki are citizens, the rest are serfs and don't matter."

Hopefully, much sooner than "three to five years".

Love to see those markings. Makes those aircraft worth it.

Like the 150 Gripen earlier, this is not really an order yet, just a letter of intention.

So now in the background there will be contract negotiations, then a contract signature, and then it'll be effective.

The main issue, for the Rafale like for the Gripen, will be funding those purchases. PURL?

EU should have put a special tariff of 500% on all russian products, including oil, gas, coal, and fuel.

With the money from those tariffs going directly into a fund for Ukraine to buy weapons with.

Then a secondary tariff, identical, on countries that don't have the same tariff against russia.

They produced 13 Rafale aircraft in 2023, 21 in 2024, and they're ramping up to reach 4 per month. No idea how the numbers will look like for 2025 (might be less than in 2024 since they moved production to a new, larger factory this year); I'm not expecting the 4/month to happen before 2027.

If russia sues, and somehow hilariously wins because some fuckhead judge decided that a genocidal warmongering fascist empire needed to be rewarded for its transgressions, then all Belgium has to do is to say "we don't accept the verdict, so fuck off".

And then what? And then nothing.

If russia sues?

That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

Sue where? Sue how?

Russia confiscated a lot of things that belonged to Western businesses, and I'm not even counting the uncounted billions they stole from Ukraine. They haven't been sued for it. Because it'd be a waste of time.

How about splitting the bars by quarters or by semesters?

We've had over three years of messages like this, russians complaining about how they're sent on suicidal missions where if they survive, then their own commanders just execute them.

And yet, the russian population just keeps signing contracts to join this.

This is how russians want to be treated.

This also included 2.6 million tons of fuel and 4.4 million tons of food.

Compare with Ukraine receiving, like, 31 tanks that had to wait until the counteroffensive failed before they were delivered because gotta make sure they'd be useless, you know?

Stalin would never have reached Berlin without the absolutely massive aid that the Allies gave him.

The Soviet Union received about a half-million road vehicles, over 7000 aircraft, and 28 naval vessels including a destroyer and four submarines. Also entire train sets including ~2k locomotives.