Tim Farrar

I heard many of the same reports about LHGroup on the cusp of announcing a different new connectivity partner. It is very interesting, indeed.

What's behind the decision of both Lufthansa and DT to change their minds about Starlink? tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/03...

Seems like we had this debate before re Starlink and Ukraine...so how does it play into the DoW's ~$1B per year contract with Starlink?

How many Starshield satellites are there? How many Starlink satellites are needed to provide continuous service?

The Opportunities and Risks of SpaceX's xAI Deal and Data Center in Space Ambitions Analysts weigh in on the opportunities and risks for SpaceX with the xAI acquisition and its data center in space constellation plan.

VIA SATELLITE: Do you think acquiring xAI was a good move for SpaceX’s investors?
@tmfassociates.bsky.social: Acquiring xAI was a good move for Musk. And he’s the largest SpaceX investor, and the one who gets to decide what SpaceX does.
www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026...

LOL...

Just don't mention the incentives to come up with ludicrously over optimistic forecasts and valuations while ignoring any potential constraints to growth in the hope of getting Musk's endorsement...

FWIW I'm told that unlike dearMoon, the Italians never progressed beyond an MoU and cancelled the deal last year (under EU pressure) before signing a formal contract, so no money ever changed hands

And it raises the question of why start giving away free second Starlink mini kits if you are production constrained, unless you are more interested in hitting subscriber milestones than maximizing revenues?

That's not been the case previously. In 2024 SpaceX made 3.9M kits but only added 2.3M subs. Current constraints are new, it seems SpaceX didn't "more than double" Bastrop weekly production in 2025 as promised unless LA decreased (was 70K Bastrop/40K LA, now 170K total)

It is fascinating that the limiting factor for Starlink adds right now is apparently terminal manufacturing. FWIW 170K terminals per week is 1.26M in the 52 days it took to go from 9M to 10M subs, though maybe production is a bit slower over the holidays (and there's churn to account for)

Musk makes Starlink terminal production constraints into a story...

Elon has apparently finally abandoned his 20 year long assertion that he was just about to build a city on Mars any day now :-)

The Super Bowl ad situation reminds me of last summer when DT vetoed TMUS buying EchoStar spectrum so SpaceX had to buy it instead...

Now the bridge of sighs I guess...

They made an aggressive pitch to a wide variety of companies and space agencies to contract now for Mars last spring, saying prices would rise soon. Italy bought the story, others were annoyed by it...

I guess the Italians are getting dearMoon vibes about now...

My new blog post on the problem with Starship and orbital data centers tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/02...

What Bezos really, really cares about.

Blue Origin, his rocket company that he has invested billions in, needs and wants billions of dollars in DOD contracts to help pay its bills.

Here Bezos greets Defense Sec. Hegseth today at Blue Origin offices in Florida

WashPost budget is a rounding error

Smart to give @tmfassociates.bsky.social the last word about Elon:

“The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”

But the cash isn't needed for SpaceX's existing business, in fact they couldn't even spend it anytime soon given launch constraints. It's about funding xAI www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/m...

With my comments on the merger...

That estimate of revenue was totally wrong

LOL...

"It’s also undeniable that SpaceX needs more than just Starlink to justify a $1.5T valuation, given that even its expected lead investment bank, Morgan Stanley, only thinks Starlink revenues will get to $126B in 2040." -- this is the sharpest thing i've read about the SpaceX IPO yet #linklog

Good debate on SpaceX's IPO prospects interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/january-...

Lots of walking back to be done on these statements...

Lufthansa Group announced it'll install Elon Musk's Starlink Wi-Fi across its *entire* fleet.

Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti.

Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.

I wonder how much pressure there was to announce this deal before the EU's pending announcement on the 2GHz award process

So they successfully filtered you out as a potential IPO investor...