Jon Kent

Beware the Two-Goal Lead: The Truth Behind the Legend of the Most Dangerous Lead in Soccer Contrary to common sense, two-goal leads are often said to the be the most dangerous in soccer. Legend has it that once teams go up by two they become complacent, making it all too likely that thei...

My first academic publication on sports analytics just dropped! Ulrik Brandes and I investigated the legend that two-goal leads are the most dangerous in soccer.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Any talk of moving it like the Mets did today?

Massachusetts is losing the battle of the ‘State of Hockey’ to Minnesota. What’s working there? - The Boston Globe For Minnesota to keep churning out high-level boys’ hockey players, it’s essential to have children as young as five able to access the sport. It starts with the rinks.

Does socialism mean giving up on exceptionalness? A great piece on youth hockey, of all things, says no. Minnesota hockey is still largely a public good; in Mass. it's a capitalist fever dream. Yet Minn. produces more D1 players these days, Massachusetts fewer. www.bostonglobe.com/2025/03/05/s...

Excellent coverage. Better than some (all?) major marathons, and right up there with the best road races. Way to go.

Projects out to a ~1:58:40 marathon. Whoa.

All goes well, next we bring a Diamond League meet back to the East Coast there.

Night of the 10,000m PBs (or similar) at the renovated White Stadium in Boston. Good idea or great idea?

looking back, AOL had it right. 30 hours of internet per month was the right amount.

Broadcast is interviewing Gobena as the winner?

sesame street isn't supposed to make money. the post office isn't supposed to make money. not everything is supposed to MAKE MONEY

TLDR: Cowboys still have a real shot at Travis Hunter as long as they keep doing their thing (embarrassing themselves in new and exciting ways every week).

Bar graph with draft pick as the x-axis and probability as the y-axis. Normal distribution with the 10th pick as the most probable (~12%) and 6th and 17th about equally likely (~2.5%).

The model doesn't know this team like we do, so it still thinks we could win two or three or even four (preposterous!) more games. Here is the full distribution of draft pick probabilities, just in case something bizarre like winning happens.

Bar graph with draft pick as x-axis and "probability with no wins" as y-axis. If Dallas loses all of its remaining games they have a 27.5% chance of getting the number one pick, 43.8% chance for number two, and 22.8% chance for number three.

Nice to see some Dallas Cowboys fans and media here. I see there is some concern about whether tanking (ie playing to the best of our ability) will be enough to get a top pick. Here's what I got from 100K sims and a basic Elo model. If we lose out, top 3 is very likely, probably pick 2.

Photo described in main post

JFC, this photo of a pro-Palestinian student protestor at the University of Mississippi with a jeering crowd of white boys in the background thedmonline.com/may-2nd-pro-...

Lol!

Now that we are living in the Cubarsi era, anything seems possible for Barça.

Yeah, that’s a nice thought.

Peacock didn’t show it, but word from his agent is vomiting, like in Berlin. Such a shame.

Tracking app has Scott Fauble as a DNF. Tough luck, once again, for someone who has inspired so many of us.

I guess Faubs will be taking his classic Boston approach, passing on whatever counts as Boylston in Orlando.

Back on pace for the ninth mile, but lots of work to do…

Leaders on 2:09 pace so it’s still possible once the racing really gets going.

Oh no, Faubs is somehow 20 some seconds back at 8M. What happened?

Four would be too much. Gotta save that half a pack for Paris.

Hey great paid money for Peacock and still have to watch commercials and random B roll crap.

T-Roy Brown, from down the road in Bern, leading the men out! Must be a very slow pace so far.

@kimixes.bsky.social informs me that she, not Kyle, was first to pick Lindsay. My apologies.

Sleepers: a trio of debutants.

Jessa Hanson, Natosha Rogers and Fiona O’Keeffe all have the speed to compete for a spot on the team. These days, that’s what matters most in the marathon.

For the women, it’s hard to pick anything other than:

🥇Emily Sisson.
🥈Betsy Saina.

Maybe the order flips, but those two stand above the rest of the field.

🥉Lindsay Flanagan. Kyle Merber convinced me about Lindsay (who is my spirit animal, incidentally) based her Worlds performance.

Sleeper: Awet Beraki. Only NCAA athlete in the field, he ran 62’ a year ago, and has been logging 200k weeks while winning 5000m national champs since. Student of the sport, practices fuel more than seasoned vets, and posts shirtless pics on Strava (love the confidence). PB of 2:38… in 10th grade.