Jennifer N. Victor

Why Attack Iran? Our Authoritarianism and Our Corruption

In which @timothysnyder.bsky.social explains how a likely explanation for Trump’s war on Iran is personal profit and corruption.

open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...

If America still had the rule of law, this would be the easiest prosecution ever, but we all know absolutely nothing will happen.

We are currently clean on OpSec.

X Is Drowning in Disinformation Following US and Israel’s Attack on Iran WIRED has reviewed hundreds of posts on X that promote misleading claims about the locations and scale of the attack.

“Almost all of the most viral posts reviewed by WIRED on Saturday came from accounts with blue check marks, meaning they…could be eligible to earn money based on how much engagement their posts generate, even if the content is false.”

From @davidgilbert.bsky.social

This map shows widely dispersed dots representing the guesses of US survey respondents about the location of Iran on a world map. 23% placed a dot in the correct area.

Where is Iran?
Each dot represents an American's guess.
pro.morningconsult.com/articles/can... 🌐

I think if I'd gotten away with attempting a coup, suffered no consequences for it, then won an election four years later, got away with executing citizens in the streets and foreigners in boats, and successfully abducted a head of state, I too might think I could just bomb my way to regime change

Yeah. It might be more accurate to say it’s 2022 and the US is Russia.

"The war was launched this weekend, not because there was a breakdown in the negotiations, rather because there was a breakthrough in the negotiations."

Al Jazeera's Marwan Bishara on the joint attack by Israel and the US on Iran.

Catastrophic Success by Alexander B. Downes | eBook | Cornell University Press In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change....

This is an extremely robust and well-studied finding.

World history is littered with attempts at imposing democracy by force.

While there are some notable counterexamples (Germany, Japan), there are many more failures.

www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

US-Israeli strike on girls' school kills at least 85 students, Iran's judiciary says At least 85 students have been killed in US-Israeli strikes that hit an Iranian girls' school in Hormozgan province, Iran's judiciary said on Saturday. Washington has not commented on the reported str...

We killed 85 schoolgirls. We are not the good guys.

Sen. Schumer is calling on Congress to pass an unenforceable resolution to enforce an unenforceable law.

In Iran, air power alone will not reshape the regime. Since WWI, dozens of U.S., Israeli & allied air campaigns have tried to force political change — none installed friendly governments. None! They strengthen nationalism and intensify resistance.

the guy who wrote the literal book on this stuff is dunking on the admin:

It’s time to grow up about the link between Epstein and this administration’s wars. I have lived through Republican administrations starting wars in the Middle East for 40 years. There’s no secret story, no conspiracy. The story in public is the story. It is a war for power over the Middle East.

I am already seeing "it's a distraction!" takes and please fucking kill me

Donald Trump’s Bored of Peace

🧵👇

Excellent first take on the war Trump had started.

I went to bed last night in 2026 and woke up in 2003. 😔

I don't know why this is so hard. Fighters win—we see that over and over, because often it's *not* about their politics! Trump was perceived as a fighter!

The most effective way to reduce Trump as a foe is undermining his narrative as a tough guy... by fighting him.

SAVE Act is dead

DHS admits it deported more than 80 DACA recipients “Dreamers” who came to the U.S. as children are protected under U.S. law, so deportations of them are unusual.

DHS admits it deported more than 80 DACA recipients
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

imo the threat posed by CBS News and CNN getting absorbed by pro-regime billionaires isn't that they're going to produce right-wing slop that convinces people to be right-wing, it's the dismantling of newsrooms capable of doing investigative reporting on the administration. Fewer eyes on the street.

Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency Activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a draft executive order that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.

This is it. There is a lot going on, but this is the most important for the future of the USA. If Trump gets away with declaring a false emergency to take over elections, autocratic rule will be locked in for decades. [gift link]
wapo.st/3N5cpEn

Columbia says DHS entered a dorm at dawn today under false pretenses, detaining a student in violation of the law and university policy.

10 hour study with me at Columbia showing lunch

Her in the library

DHS illegally arrested me please help Text against image of her knees

Columbia student detained today is a day-in-the-life influencer with 100K followers. Her stories right now go from her studying for a Genetics exam in a nicely edited "ten hour study with me at Columbia" video, to a photo of her knees with the caption "dhs illegally arrested me please help"

People in positions of authority need to investigate immediately and ask questions like: Are children being tortured in detention centers? The activities in the report sound abusive. This is unconscionable.

Save the kids.

Supreme Court Says You Can’t File Tort Suits Against Postal Carriers Who Won’t Deliver Mail to Black People According to Clarence Thomas, mail that your mail carrier steals from you is really just “lost,” if you think about it.

You can't sue the government if postal workers accidentally drop the glassware you ordered or lose a letter from your pen pal

The Supreme Court ruled yesterday that this means you also can't sue if postal workers refuse to deliver your mail because you're Black

ballsandstrikes.org/scotus/posta...

Correcting this—US women’s hockey have not yet publicly declined a WH visit….just attending SOTU.

“These people are crazy!” - pointing at Dems. A fair amount of the speech is Trump talking directly to Democrats, accusing them wanting to cheat on elections, etc, etc. It’s like shitposting bait to try to get a rise. I hear heckling (maybe I. Omar?), so it’s working. Neg. Partisanship on steroids.

I don’t recall seeing empty seats at SOTU before, but there are definitely vacancies on the chamber floor tonight.