Nicole Duffey

🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻

78 of the top 200 markets are back to pre-pandemic inventory.

• Most of those markets have seen prices slow, or even drop.

• Only 41 markets were at pre-pandemic inventory at the start of the year.

• 30 markets are at least 50% below pre-pandemic levels.

Five year price appreciation in Virginia homes at 54% - I’ve been in real estate this entire time and I watched it happen and I still can’t really fathom what this means for people long term.

For context: Back in 2014 when I was training to be a Realtor I was taught that 3% year over year, on average, was typical. And to make sure to coach people to hold on to properties for a few years at least to make sure they didn't loose money on the purchase.

This data has broken my brain.

a lot of people were hurt in 08 bc they were given loans they could not afford in the first place, or sold ARM loans which ballooned their payments in later years. The only way to get out of them was to refinance or sell and when neither of those options worked, foreclosure was all that was left.

The equity is really just a number on paper until the home sells or you *pay money* to take out some sort of loan with the house as collateral (like a HELOC). For anyone who bought a home in 2007 if they could stay there, or rent it out, & still afford their mortgage, they weren't in trouble.

Current Mortgage Rates: Compare today’s rates - NerdWallet Compare mortgage rates when you buy a home or refinance your loan. Save money by comparing free, customized mortgage rates from NerdWallet.

www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/mo...

HELOC is different than a refinance - I'd see what rates you're getting quoted for the HELOC and decide then

^^^THIS

Expect to see tons of disinformation flying around this spring about the housing market.

Check your sources.
If you need to engage with it this spring make sure you’re following local data informed sources. Your county’s Realtor Association likely publishes numbers. Look at those, not clickbait

They do really want to buy houses, however the change in lifestyle desires is noticeably going to start coming into play when inventory rises - walkability and community are very important

Homebuilder confidence really tanked this month. Especially notable is their view of the "next six months".

Toll just missed their numbers.

Housing Starts out tomorrow!

The most important thing I can tell everyone that I've learned from being a YouTuber who explains how stuff works is that each and every time I thought "this is common knowledge and doesn't need to be explained" I was wrong.

The National Association of Home Builders explains what happens if we make inputs for home construction, such as Canadian lumber, more expensive.

My heart is breaking for everyone who made their housing choices with the belief that they would be remote working (some or all of the time) only to have that suddenly changed.

The levels of disaster it can create for people just can not be underestimated. It’s cruel.

To anyone who needs help figuring out their housing choices in the Washington DC metro area - I’m a Democrat & local realtor with over a decade of experience helping people figure this stuff out. (I offer free initial consultations and will connect you with the right agent if it’s not me) DMs open

Add me to the pack and you’ve got a deal 😊

I don’t know how to square the “positive job numbers” with the fact that I know multiple people having very difficult, very long job searches right now.

What was the affordability index during those times though?

Lawrence Yun predicts mortgage rates to settle at around 6% to 6.5% this year.

Median Home Prices and Mortgage Payments by County Median home values were calculated for 3,110 counties and county-equivalents. Explore the average home price in the USA.

SOURCE

www.nar.realtor/research-and...

So - anyway

Median Home Prices in America are between $1,579,260 and $46,930 🫠🫥😵‍💫

Which means the national average may not be very relevant to you wherever you are. You need to look carefully at local market analysis to understand what you're dealing with.

People weigh so many things in the choice of where to live: family obligations (hello aging parents!) community support, opportunities, activities, quality of life, health concerns

(if you've ever known someone who's body can not handle extreme temps you know that the latitude is NOT a choice)

The discourse that points out "people can just move" drives me up the wall - it is so soulless / condescending / unrealistic - when people make choices about where to live they can't just do it based on a chart of what is optimal financially (maybe a few people can & good for them I guess)

It's a broad disparity.

And it creeps out of metro areas because that's where people want to be. Its where they can find work. For a lot of people it's also where they have connections, roots, you know LIVES.

Then NAR takes the data and looks at the entire country
The median for an American Home is $406,100

Which is, I suppose, interesting for you to be able to compare your local market too? But practically what does this info do for someone just trying to figure out where to live?

I'll be honest that I have a hard time wrapping my head around either of these. My county is at $769,150

The lowest is Todd County, SD: $46,930