SentimenTrader

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 4 article "Macro conditions are on the edge of ugliness": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

Macro conditions in the U.S. are not great.

Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jay kaeppel’s Jun 28 article "3 keys align for commodities": users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppe...

Jay kaeppel highlighted in a recent post that price, cyclical, and seasonal factors are aligning favorably for commodities, creating a potential opportunity for investors in commodity ETFs.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 31 article "A "perfect" sector trend signal just triggered": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 delivered an annualized return of 18.2% when at least 10 sectors traded above their long-term average.

Every S&P 500 sector except health care has closed above its 200-day moving average. This kind of alignment is particularly encouraging after a period when none of the sectors were trading above their 200-day averages.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's article Jul 29 "Bullish markets break records": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

On Monday, the world's most benchmarked index notched its sixth consecutive record high, completing the second-fastest rebound from a six-month low to this many all-time highs, trailing only 1961.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's article Jul 28 "Calendar compression in fear": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

Since the end of the global financial crisis, the VIX's Bollinger Bands compressed this tightly 5 other times. Within the next 4 months, the VIX jumped by more than 50% every time.

It's even more unusual to see the VIX this compressed during July-August.

Volatility is ebbing fast.

Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's article Jul 25 "Bullish clue hidden in cyclical stocks": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

For the first time following a six-month low, the percentage of stocks recording a 52-week high for members in the consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, and technology sectors simultaneously exceeded 10%.

Amid the fanfare surrounding the S&P 500's 12th record high in 2025, a more consequential signal emerged beneath the surface, one that has often preceded exceptional returns for the world's most benchmarked index.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 24 article "Bulls get more support from global momentum": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

As illustrated in the chart below, when nearly all international equity markets display bullish momentum, the MSCI World Index has delivered an impressive 16.9% annualized return.

The case for a sustained rally in stocks got an additional boost when over 80% of country indexes displayed a positive 252-day rate-of-change, the first such occurrence in more than a year.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert’s Jul 23 article "No stress in bond land": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

Whether the bond market is smarter than the stock market is debatable.

Regardless, bond traders are not worried about defaults. And that has been a very good thing for the S&P 500.

Watch out if the index climbs above its 50-day moving average.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians, CMT's Jul 21 article "The overbought condition in technology suggests more upside": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

When you push a ball deep underwater, it doesn't just float back - it surges. Tech investors know the feeling. After the S&P 500 technology sector cycled from at least 15% below its 200-day average to 15% above it, those stocks displayed solid consistency and returns over the following year.

Heavy buy-the-dip sentiment has typically been a pretty good sign for the NDX; less so for SPX

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's article Jul 21 "A great year to buy the dip": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

So far this year, the cumulative gain by buying a down day in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and holding it only for the next session is +29%.

That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000.

The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928.

Thanks to a marked improvement in alternative managers, the S&P 1500 Asset Management group triggered a new trend score buy signal

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 18 "Alternative asset managers regain leadership status”: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jaykaeppel's Jul 10 "Some contrarian signals for metals": users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppe...

Metals have been showing significant strength. While Jay kaeppel is not prone to standing in the way of a powerful advance, he felt compelled to point out some contrarian signals in a recent post.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Jul 14 "Lagging small-cap and discretionary stocks provide a weak warning":https://users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentimentedge/lagging-small-cap-and-discretionary-stocks-provide-a-weak-warning

There's always something to complain about.

According to financial media, the rally isn't being led by what it should be because discretionary and small-cap stocks are lagging badly.

After similar conditions since 1926, only one instance (in 1990) preceded a meaningful downturn in stocks.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 11 "The world's most benchmarked index exhibits bullish price momentum":https://users.sentimentrader.com/users/modeledge/the-worlds-most-benchmarked-index-exhibits-bullish-price-momentum