SentimenTrader

2025-09-02 | A curve ball from the yield curve

Since the inception of the curve, those were the only two signals that preceded negative returns.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Sep 2 article "A curve ball from the yield curve" - full report available: payhip.com/b/r5ZTv

The last two times this yield curve cycled from inversion to a spread of +1.25%, it coincided with the two most wicked bear markets in generations.

The Wall Street Journal noted that the yield spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond has steepened to the widest point in several years.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 20 article "Small options traders show this isn't a 2021 repeat"- full report available: payhip.com/b/XmFnZ

The premiums spent on call options minus put options, as a % of U.S. market cap, are historically high. But they're less than a third of what they were in 2021.

Small options traders are less of a force than they were 4 years ago.Still, they've been pushing their bullish bets...just not to the degree they were a few years ago.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Aug 19 article "In sync in the Asia-Pacific" - full report available: payhip.com/b/hdHGI

For the first time since 2021, every single MSCI Asia-Pacific country index is now trading above its 200-day average. When over 95% of Asia-Pacific countries exceeded their long-term average, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has historically delivered an impressive 29% annualized return.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jay kaeppel's Aug 15 article "Monetary policy and inflation fears have peaked" - full report available: payhip.com/b/rutB7

Human nature never changes. When bad economic news arises, investors become more fearful as things worsen. Two little-known datasets have highlighted significant recent concerns regarding monetary policy and inflation. According to Jay kaeppel,history suggests that this is a good thing.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 18 article "Investors ignore Berkshire, buy everything else" - full report available: payhip.com/b/PLWiJ

The ratio of that stock to the S&P 500 has plunged more than 20% over 90 days. 5 out of 6 previous times, BRK rallied at least 20% over the following six months.

One stock not among the recent surge is Berkshire Hathaway.

A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jay kaeppel's Aug 13 article "The continuing case for technology"- full report available : payhip.com/b/x0Pct

The technology sector has roared higher following an early-year sell-off. Oversold signals in April followed by recent continuation signals suggest the rally could continue longer than many may suspect according to Jay kaeppel

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Aug 13 article "A bullish blast in breadth": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

Following a four-day pullback, buyers regained control, propelling the S&P 500 to fresh record territory on Tuesday. Market breadth was equally impressive, as NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 4-to-1 margin in two of the last seven sessions.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 13 article "Small business optimism is rebounding": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

Ironically, the biggest beneficiary of improved small business sentiment was the large-cap S&P 500 index.

Small business owners are feeling better.

For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 11 article "A record high with record weakness": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

For the 1st time since inception, NDX closed at a record high with less than 48% of its members trading above their 50-day moving average. Over the past 40 years, an average of 76% of members were above their 50-day average when the NDX reached a high.

The Nasdaq 100 just did something it's never done before. Not in a good way.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 6 article "A simple 3-pronged system for bitcoin": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

This system just flipped to bearish for the first time in over a month.

Bitcoin tends to react well when trend, sentiment, and breadth is supportive.

A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Aug 4 article "Did this price pattern mark a top for equities?": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

While this back-to-back shift in momentum may appear ominous on the surface, especially after reaching all-time highs, history suggests it's more reflective of the natural ebb and flow within an uptrend.

The S&P 500 just exhibited a rare pattern by rising for at least four consecutive days to a record high, only to follow that with four straight days of losses.

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 4 article "Macro conditions are on the edge of ugliness": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...