Roland Paris

This Carney statement is puzzling. If, as he says, we must accept "the world as it is" – including the purported failure of previous diplomatic efforts and of the international order – then why call for a diplomatic solution, de-escalation, and respect for international law?

YouTube video by cpac Anita Anand speaks on fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – February 24, 2026

I was pleased to host foreign minister Anita Anand today at @uottawa.ca on the 4th anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. www.youtube.com/watch?v=T85E...

US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs: Early analysis from Chatham House experts Chatham House analysts give their Initial reactions to the Supreme Court’s tariffs ruling, its likely impact on President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, and his angry response to the ruling.

The Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs may have removed one instrument from his tariff toolkit — but it has done nothing to make US trade policy more predictable.

Read @rolandparis.bsky.social's analysis for Chatham House⤵️

Chatham House asked for my quick assessment of the US Supreme Court tariff decision. Here's what I wrote:

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While it’s true that eventually Trump will no longer be president, the American public voted for him not just once but twice – and he has defined a type of politics that others will imitate. It would be foolish to assume that MAGA will disappear when he leaves the stage.

A reminder of the risks of relying exclusively on the F35. Trump will use any available leverage to apply pressure, including on America’s closest allies. Derisking is essential.

Amazing how many international relations "realists" who've spent decades arguing that material power not ideas matter in international affairs, are suddenly recognizing that destroying trust (an idea) and perceptions of the US (more ideas) may be materially damaging to the US.

Fact check: The US trades a lot more with China than Canada does - not just in absolute $ but also relative to each country's total trade.

* US trade with China = 10.9% of total US trade

* Canada's trade with China = 7.9% of total Canadian trade

Data sources: x.com/rolandparis/...

I discussed the Carney speech and what might come next with Matt Galloway on CBC The Current this morning. To listen: on.soundcloud.com/NELsuOsg8awM...

To me, this was the most interesting and telling part of Trump's Davos speech. He doesn't even try to hide his imperial ambitions because he doesn't see any real problems with imperialism - now or in the past. Listen to his words.

Canadian soldiers are subject to Donald Trump’s orders As the American president becomes more aggressive, this is becoming a problem

In this post-“rupture” world, the Canadian government must be more publicly transparent about the specific functions being performed by Canadian exchange officers inside the US military.

Translation: “Nice country you got there, Canada. Watch yourself.”

Trump says his desire to acquire Greenland fits a long history of US territorial expansion—and likens it to Europe’s imperial expansion, which he frames as normal. He even seems to fault European countries for giving up their empires.

Can Middle Powers Save the Liberal World Order? Many middle powers have been warning of the dangers inherent in the decline of the liberal international order. The time has come for these countries to translate their warnings into concerted action.

What can “middle powers” actually do? I wrote about this for @chathamhouse.org during the first Trump Admin, when the threats were less severe and the rules-based order more intact, but the same principles apply: hang together or hang separately. www.chathamhouse.org/2019/06/can-...

Excellent analysis of the Carney speech.

Bizarre as it seems, Trump may genuinely be unable to grasp that the Nobel Committee is independent - because the very idea of an institution remaining outside political control is alien to him.

This is a good moment for Mark Carney to reconsider cuts to Canada's foreign ministry. He says that we face unprecedented, even existential, challenges and must manage very complex relationships while building new ones. Yet we're *reducing* our diplomatic capacity?

We'll see. Many our asking themselves the same question.

Listen till the very end!
Luister Tot het einde!

#Davos #WEF

YouTube video by rparis001 Analysis of Mark Carney’s Davos speech | CBC | 20 January 2026

Some thoughts from me on Mark Carney’s important speech in Davos. youtu.be/Xj1VHwVgsAY?...

The Carney doctrine Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech

This is one of the sharpest analyses of international affairs that I've heard from a Canadian leader - or any national leader - in a long time. And I suspect he wrote the main bits himself. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...

History will judge, but this Greenland episode feels like a tipping point for a lot of things.

It makes sense this model would include irregular warfare. Canada couldn’t hold off even a small US invasion conventionally – but it’s a vast country, and occupying and controlling it would be another matter entirely. All hypothetical, of course.

Read the Texts Between Trump and Norway’s Prime Minister About Greenland

Even by Trump’s standards, this is astonishing petty and childish. The neuroses of the most powerful man in the world are once again on full display to everyone – other than himself, that is. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/u...

Reports that the Carney government pulled backbench Liberal MPs from an ongoing visit to Taiwan (ahead of Carney’s trip to China) are not an encouraging signal from the Canadian PM.

Trump says his so-called Donroe Doctrine "supersedes" the Monroe Doctrine "by a lot." And he might be right: His version is more openly avaricious and arbitrary - in short, more imperial. Read more below.

As Carney visits China to diversify Canada’s trade, the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ further strains US relations Mark Carney visits Beijing hoping to diversify Canada’s economic partnerships. But trade with the US remains vital, even as tariffs bite and security worries about Donald Trump’s intentions grow.

My commentary for @chathamhouse.org on Carney's trip to China amid growing concerns about the "Donroe Doctrine." www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/carn...

Stealing Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint isn’t enough. Trump now seems to want Machado to hand over her Nobel Prize too. He’s a villain, but utterly pathetic: His appetite – his neediness – couldn’t be sated by all the gold or prizes in the world.

If the US moves to take over Greenland – a threat we’d be foolish to dismiss – Canada would be forced to rethink every aspect of its relations with the US. Canadian officials need to start thinking though this nightmarish scenario now, not later. It would be a seismic event.