Question at this point should be "Can Seoul count on Seou's commitment to unification . . . "

Wow.
I wonder how many foreigners have been injured in past demonstrations…

North Korea for many years, particularly Jan 2009 onward, has repeatedly stated its nuclear weapons are not for sale as bargaining chips. From the 5th Plenum of the 7th Party Congress in late 2019 onward, Pyongyang has repeatedly stated it is not motivated by seeking sanctions relief.

But that said, what in particular might we be missing: What DT really thinks about KJU's "leader-level commitment to complete denuclearization," or that DT's goal is CVID?

So at the very least we can be confident that the NSC spokesperson is representing the position that the White House wants to project. To question the delta between what any President really thinks and what the WH or NSC person claims s/he thinks makes it impossible to judge any policy or position.

Those quotes have continuity in part with POTUS and cabinet-level official comments so far (Pyongyang's a nuclear power, and sanctions are not working), and track with ROK opposition party calls. Perhaps a way ahead is getting clearer.

I can see Prez Trump being able to address those: "Yes, you are a nuclear power. Stop the sanctions, since they don't work anyways. ROK: defend yourselves. You have the money. Stop exercises, stop ED demonstrations." (4/5)

So the "stop being hostile and respect our sovereignty" language means "recognize us as a nuclear power, stop punishing us for not denuclearizing, and stop threatening us by recommitting to the defense of the ROK (3/)

We can reasonably assume DPRK knows US and ROK have had no hostile intent to invade over the last 7 decades, otherwise, we long ago would have sought military retaliation for repeated lethal/kinetic provocations (2/ )

So this is going to fuel a debate as to what DPRK is seeking when it demands US halt it hostile policy igrnoring the sovereignty and security interests of the DPRK. (1/)

The Impossible State Live Podcast: What's Next for the Korean Peninsula under Trump 2.0? | CSIS Events Please join the Impossible State podcast for a discussion of recent DPRK actions and US policy towards DPRK under the new U.S. administration.

Tune in tomorrow, 1/22, at 11:00 AM (ET) for the @csis.org Impossible State podcast! Dr. Ellen Kim moderates a discussion with @sydseiler.bsky.social on recent DPRK activities, the current situation in South Korea, and what to expect under the second Trump administration.

Watch below:

For now, it looks not so much like Yoon has seized the initiative, but that the opposition will be back-footed and will have to tread carefully or risk losing even more public support than it has over the past few days.

I think this bottom-line still holds, which is also why SecState Blinken's visit next week is important.

Also, it is important not to dismiss Pyongyang's (and Beijing's) developments and agency: the shift from Moon to Yoon policies was as much driven by changes in the geostrategic environment as opposed to be solely personality based. This is not a matter of merely turning the clock back to 2018 . . .

My own sense in listening to friends on the ground in Korea is that there is sufficient diversity in opposition views on the traditional key foreign policy issues to warrant caution in concluding that successful impeachment would lead to a collapse of everything we have seen under Yoon.

NCG and Extended Deterrence enhancements, trilateral security cooperation with Japan, resumed robust military exercises, economic security cooperation, etc. -- all of these benefitted South Korea's national security, and were not mere Washington-pleasing steps that put at risk ROK interests.

Should be clear on one thing: the recent events in South Korea do not undo the progress made over the past two years in countering the growing North Korea nuclear threat and China challenge through multiple lines of effort: (1/2)

UK statement in response to events in South Korea, 14 December Minister for the Indo-Pacific, Catherine West, has issued a statement in response to today's events in South Korea.

South Korea is a Global Strategic Partner for the UK. We look forward to working with Acting President Han Duck-soo and the administration.👇 www.gov.uk/government/n...

#impeachment #yoon It would be wrong to say democracy failed today. There will be more impeachment proceedings, again in accordance with the democratic rights those who support impeachment have.

#impeachment #yoon Any student of government understands that to abstain is to indirectly vote no. In this case, PPP members who walked out were "voting" with their feet that they did support impeachment. Abstention is not an un-democratic action.

State Dept. says S. Korea-U.S. alliance ‘transcends any particular president’ – The Korea Times

Good summary of State Department's reaffirmation of confidence in US-ROK relationship transcending any particular president, and in the prevailing of democratic system and processes.

www.koreatimesus.com/state-dept-s...

📅December 12 | 9:30 - 10:15 am ET

Capital Cable #102: Why was martial law declared in South Korea on December 3?

Joining Mark Lippert and @victordcha.bsky.social to discuss this and more are @myhlee.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com and Sydney Seiler @csis.org.

RSVP: www.csis.org/events/what-...