Stephen Stapczynski

Power demand on the largest US grid is poised to surge thanks to the AI boom
🇺🇸 ⚡️📈

PJM Interconnection, which manages the 13-state system stretching from Washington DC to Illinois, expects peak summer demand to jump by 38% by 2035

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

More countries are looking to buy US oil & gas to make Trump happy 🇺🇸🛢️

🇰🇷 South Korea's trade minister said the country will consider buying more to reduce their trade surplus with the US
⚠️ Vietnam, EU & Taiwan are considering to do the same to avoid Trump's proposed tariffs

Vietnam aims to complete its first nuclear power plant by 2030 to boost energy security
🇻🇳❤️☢️

📝 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered the REMARKABLY ambitious target today
⚠️ This comes after Vietnam was hit with blackouts in 2023 due to hot weather, coal power malfunctions

More LNG ships divert to Europe in search of better profits 🚢🚢

🇪🇺 At least 6 ships changed course away from Asia to Europe since last week
📈 Europe needs more LNG after losing Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine
🙅‍♂️ Asia demand is subdued as winter ends (and prices too high)

This person isn’t me! Report them if you can please

bsky.app/profile/s-st...

Sir

More LNG vessels are diverting to Europe to take advantage of better prices 🚢

📈 Four diversions from Asia to Europe in the last week. Europe needs LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas supply via Ukraine
📉 Asia doesn't need the LNG as demand remains subdued

Ok fine

Heating demand… rising

#natgas

The US sanctioned two of Russia’s active LNG export plants 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 ⚠️

📝The restrictions targeted Portovaya and Vysotsk, Russia’s smaller LNG plants
🚢 The US (the world’s biggest LNG exporter) has been focused on halting Russia’s plans to expand gas sales

China to Keep Tapping Coal to Meet Its Energy Security Needs Cheap coal will continue to provide the ballast for China’s energy security in the coming year, according to the country’s top industry grouping.

China will keep tapping coal
🇨🇳❤️🪨

📈 China's top industry coal group expects output to rise to 1.5% in 2025, the ninth consecutive annual increase
🔥 Demand also seen rising 1%
⛏️ China has expanded mining capacity so that supply runs ahead of demand

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The UK’s wind turbines have overtaken gas plants for the first time as the number one source of power 🇬🇧🌬️

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Thanks for joining!

Always nice to see you on the big screen

Correct. Most of the vessels in its fleet go to other ports

Japan’s shipowners plan to spend $6 billion to boost its fleet of LNG tankers through 2030 🇯🇵 🚢

💰 Top three shipowners to increase fleet 40% by end of decade
👉 This big investments will ensure a stable supply of energy and profit from the growing market

US gas traders checking the weather at end of 2024

Biden to Ban New Oil Drilling Over Vast Stretch of US Atlantic, Pacific Waters President Joe Biden is set to order a ban on new offshore oil and gas development across some 625 million acres of US coastal territory, ruling out the sale of drilling rights in Atlantic and Pacific ...

Biden will order a ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling 🇺🇸🛢️

Unlike other executive actions that can be easily undone, Biden’s declaration is rooted in a 72-year-old law that gives the White House wide discretion to permanently protect US waters

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

🤝

Ok, fair fair. I was goofing on the how some policymakers saying they could replace Russian gas with US LNG

Austria says other natural gas sources are compensating for the loss of Russian fuel via Ukraine 🇦🇹 👍

Gas imports via Germany and Italy are sufficient, says Austria‘s grid manager

“Domestic supply to end users is currently being managed from imports, storage and production.”

Europe has been shifting away from Russian pipe gas since 2022

But the closure of the Ukraine route, which survived the Cold War and massive regime change, piles more uncertainty ontop of Europe's energy dilemma

And it signals a more volatile (and potentially expensive) future

Russia provided half of Germany’s gas in 2021. It's now (basically) zero

Due in part to the loss of Russian energy and other factors, Germany's economy is 5% smaller than it would have been if the pre-pandemic growth trend had been maintained

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

“Cheap" Russian gas was the backbone of some European economies for essentially half a century

That's now ending. And Europe is set to face higher-for-longer gas prices

While the route accounts for just 5% of Europe’s needs, nations are still reeling from the aftershocks of an energy crisis

Europe is now increasingly exposed to market volatility as it leans on LNG imports

Gas prices are up 50% year-on-year (but still far from the 2022 record)

The Ukraine route now isn't sending Russian gas to Europe. And it isn't clear if/when that will be resolved

Both sides don't seem near a new deal anytime soon

Ukraine was still the main route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe until about a decade ago with the start of Nord Stream and then Turkstream

Contract disputes after the invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the Nord Stream explosion, resulted in total flows falling since 2022

In 2009, Russian flows via Ukraine to Europe stopped for almost two weeks, with more than 20 nations affected amid freezing temperatures, until Moscow and Kyiv signed a deal ending their disagreement. A shorter disruption occurred in 2006

Things began to change after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991

Independent Ukraine agreed to continue transiting Russian gas to Europe. That led to some nasty disputes on transit fees

And pushed Russia to explore other routes that circumvented Ukraine

Ukraine was the main route by which the USSR sent gas to Western Europe during the Cold War

Gas continued flowing during that period, and countries became more dependent

By the early 1980s, Germany depended on the USSR for 20% of its gas needs. Austria was half

(NYT, 1981)

Italy inked a deal in 1969, and France also made several pacts in the 1970s and 1980s to ramp-up imports of gas from the USSR

(This came despite criticism from the US)