Chris Cooper

a shooting star with the words " the more you know " behind it ALT: a shooting star with the words " the more you know " behind it

A little after 7:30 pm, all of #ncpol will begin posting election results in progress

There is no secret portal to better or newer information. Everyone is just navigating to er.ncsbe.gov & pressing refresh as fast as their thumbs will allow

So, join the fun. No experience required.

Lack of space and the need to draw a line somewhere. Both are smart additions

It's primary day in North Carolina!

To celebrate, here's some early voting data, some thoughts on the role of party elites in a primary, and & links (I know how to party). There's also a short guide to following tonight's primary linked towards the bottom

#ncpol
open.substack.com/pub/chriscoo...

#ncpol

PSA for #WNC skiers: it’s not too late to get a few turns in this year, as long as you’re ok skiing on mashed potatoes.

Also—this is the time to get your season pass on for next year at Cataloochee

Thanks, Burial Beer for finding the beer name for this moment.

Feb. 28 🤏early voting update for #ncpol
🗳️ ~622k ballots cast (99.8% accepted)
🗳️ ~23% higher than 2022. U up the most, followed by D, then R
🗳️ 55% of U voters choosing the D ballot w/ huge variation
🗳️ #sd26: Rockingham continuing to dominate, but the gap is closing a little

Addendum: The SD 26 graph is daily totals (not cumulative).

All the usual stuff:
🛑 These data are useful for understanding, not predicting elections.
🤏 post tomorrow. Long Sunday.
🔗 I download these data from NCSBE and run the analysis, but if you want to click yourself to your own answers, see the John Locke Foundation's Vote tracker

(3/3)

Zoom in on #sd26
🗳️ Rockingham voters make up 67% of Rep early votes thus far--far ahead of 2022 & of registered voters.
🗳️ While Rockingham continues to punch well above its weight, the margin is beginning to shrink. Imp. to watch today & tomorrow. Conventional wisdom is Rockingham=good 4 Page (2/3)

Early voting update for #ncpol
🗳️ ~526k ballots cast/ ~1000 not accepted
🗳️ ~24% higher than same day
🗳️ Dems ⬆️ ~26% / Reps ⬆️ ~8% / Una⬆️ ~40%
🗳️Yesterday was the 1st day where 2022>2026

(1/3)

NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans haven’t closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day

Usual caveats + reading list:
🛑 ⬆️ useful for understanding, but not for forecasting elections.
🤏update tomorrow & Sat/Longer update Sunday.
📖 @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social had a great post today on EV thus far ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-early-v...

#sd26
🗳️ Thus far, the electorate is more Rockingham heavy than expected-69% of R votes are from Rockingham. In '22, 40% were from Rockingham*
🗳️ Una. voters in Rockingham choosing the R primary 88% of the time/45% in Guilford portion of SD26

*2022 #s include election day

(2/2)

Feb. 26 #ncpol early voting update.
🗳️ ~476.5K ballot cast/~950 not accepted
🗳️ ~58% of ballots cast in D primary/41% in R
🗳️ ~42% of ballots cast by Dems/30% Una/28% R
🗳️ ~29% ahead of 2022/~9% ahead of 2024

In Eastland County, Texas, Republicans are scrambling to hand count primary ballots The local party’s decision to hand count election night ballots in the March 3 primary has led to major logistical problems and could make it harder for some to vote.

Eastland County Republicans in Texas voted to hand count all primary ballots. The move has led to logistical problems that election officials are scrambling to resolve.
www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/0...

More mini-updates through Saturday. Long update Sunday.

Usual caveats:

🛑 These data are helpful for understanding elections, not predicting them.
🛑 I round because there is a small ammt of uncertainty/processing lag
🛑 Are these turnout patterns or early voting patterns? 🤷‍♂️

3/3

Unaffiliated voters can choose their own partisan adventure in the #ncpol primaries. Thus far 55% of them are choosing the Dem ballot/45% the R ballot

But, there's a lot of variation in there. Ex.: In Rockingham Cnty, 88% are choosing the R ballot. In Durham, 92% the D

(2/3)

Early voting update for #ncpol 2/25/26
🗳️ ~ 420,700 ballots cast/99.8% accepted
🗳️ ~ 59% of ballots cast in Dem primary/~ 41% in Rep
🗳️ ~29% ⬆️ compared to 2022
🗳️ Dems ⬆️ ~34%/ Reps ⬆️ ~9%/ Una⬆️ ~46%(!)

🤏 🧵 (1/3)

thanks! That was a fun one. thanks for listening.

The Democrats' Appalachian Problem Democrats are no longer competitive in most of Appalachia. And there's little evidence of the trend reversing.

The Democrats have an Appalachian problem.

Here's the evidence ⬇️

open.substack.com/pub/chriscoo...

Here's some context on the DCCC's "red to blue" program, which includes #nc11's Jamie Ager (see @coryvaillancourt.bsky.social's story below).

#ncpol

Thanks to @the-downballot.com & @cookpolitical.com for making their data available.

Agree, but the Libertarian's vote % was not > than the difference between the top two vote getters.

If you follow #redistricting in #ncpol (specifically, in the #ncga), you've come across reference to the "Stephenson" county clustering rule

@mapblake.bsky.social's resource is the best explainer I've seen of how this process works. It's still here & free. For now. As Marc Maron would say--do it up

good stuff. I would add that the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot was also a factor (not arguing *the* factor, but I am arguing *a* factor)

Hyper-local #ncpol election nerd post:

The Cashiers early voting site is opening a little late today.

That should read story, not sorry. Sorry ‘bout that

National Democrats make serious play in Western North Carolina In a move that underscores shifting political terrain in Western North Carolina, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has placed a candidate in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District ...

More eyes on #nc11

Sorry by @coryvaillancourt.bsky.social

#ncpol

smokymountainnews.com/news/item/40...

An Early Surge Is Surprising North Carolina’s Primary Election Ten days of Early Voting is telling us that Democratic ballots are running well ahead of past primaries, unaffiliated voters are tilting left, and the electorate looks older—and familiar.

With North Carolina entering the last full week of early voting, there's an early surge that is surprising to those in #ncpol world.

New analysis of the first 10 days of early voting by Center director @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social:

open.substack.com/pub/ncpoliti...

There’s a guy running for Jackson County Commission whose name is Worm.

He has short, curved campaign signs that, I presume, are meant to look like a worm.

I love local politics

Usual caveats apply:
🛑 These data are useful for understanding, not predicting elections.
🛑 #s can and will shift w/ normal processing (hence the rounding)

More to follow tomorrow.

(3/3)