Amanda Michaud

PSA: we've switched the .github repository in which we store our data. Check the google site for the change.

‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️ n/n

Counterpoint to doom and gloom: While most of this data suggests the labor market is turning softer, the starting position is, historically, a pretty strong one. 4/n

Quits continue to fall, often interpreted as pessimism or precaution against higher uncertainty about whether a new job would be easy to find. Layoffs seem to be creeping up as well. 4/n

Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n

Employment to Unemployment flows decline while layoffs remain stable which we show are due to an increase layoffs into non-participation. 2/n

Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Call for Papers | Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

Call for Papers | Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

Ahem: I mean papers **in progress** not (necessarily) papers on Economic development (although those are welcomed too) 🤦

📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

Lots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that K. Ellieroth and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA
Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.

Bottom Line: Quits weaker in level & momentum than other indicators. In forecasting, quits add most info about urate in medium run (+2 quarters). Still, we think current unusual pessimism in quits could reflect increased uncertainty about the future rather than material risks. 7/7

2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n

In the monthly brief (qlmonthly.github.io/updates/QLmo...) we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n

Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n

Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n

Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n

QL Monthly Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

And for the nerds: the monthly brief explains why our data ARE NOT affected by BLS revisions. (but fyi JOLTS are)

tldr; nothing notable in January means we're MORE confident that the labor market is settled in, but also no strong signal from flows about where we'll be tomorrow. Welcome to the random-walk! Of course there is a lot going on, we just report inference from flows.

Job finding rates for unemployed prime age improved in January, but the 6-mo moving average did not shift up. Yet again, the current job finding rate is pretty normal.

Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.

That EU fell more than layoffs means that a larger share of laid off prime age workers exited the labor force in December and January. This was out of historical "normal" but the data are noisy and so we'll check in next month.

QL Monthly Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained.
sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...

I empathize. Our battle, believe it or not, is convincing fellow macroeconomists that there's a difference between a quit and a layoff! But, yeah: point well taken.

I would say we complement the JOLTS in three ways (1) we can break down by worker demographics; (2) we see labor supply after a quit or layoff (go to unemployment or go to non-participation); and (3) in an era of large revisions to JOLTS it's another data point.

It's the same concept as JOLTS but is only quits resulting in non-employment (the worker identifies it as a quit). The Fujita et al series sees all employer to employer flows but cannot distinguish quits vs layoffs (other data sets show many laid-off workers go directly to a new job)

Third, while job finding rates improved in December, the moving average remained low. Moving averages are used to remove monthly volatility common in these CPS series. 3/3

Second, EU rates (employed workers who become unemployed) remain stable although layoffs to non-employment rose in December. This is because the share of laid off workers exiting the labor force also increased in December (fyi: labor force exit data are too on our website). 2/3

QL Monthly Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

#QLmonthly has been updated with December's data. (sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...). Updated charts for prime-age in this thread. First, layoffs to non-employment rose in December but the rolling average remains below the summer 24' spike. 1/3