Center for NC Politics & Public Service

Folks interested in #ncpol need this resource:

uncpress.org/978146968171...

A couple of folks have asked whether Page or Berger could simply run again an independent. The answer is no.

For the history, see this clip from chapter 8 of Anatomy of a Purple State ⤵️

#ncpol

A Political Earthquake Rattles the North Carolina Legislature

A Political Earthquake Rattles the North Carolina Legislature

#ncpol #ncga

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/u...

The Morning After NC's Primary Election, and the Story is: 2 Votes Something nobody could have predict was an extraordinary election unofficially decided by 2 votes, a coronation & pattern-based US Senate primaries, and now the race to November

An early morning reflection post after a late night of primary results from @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

#ncpol

open.substack.com/pub/ncpoliti...

NC-01: Laurie Buckhout, the 2024 nominee, won the GOP primary and will face Rep. Don Davis (D) in November. Race rating: Lean R

Coming up in 15 minutes!

Join us on Substack!

open.substack.com/live-stream/...

LIVE SOON: Live with Center for NC Politics: It's Primary Election Night! Starting Mar 3 at 8:15 PM EST

Join @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social & @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social at 8:15 PM tonight on Substack Live for a quick hit before the #ncpol polls completely close at 8:30 PM and returns begin to roll in!

open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Tomorrow's the Day: NC Primary Election Awaits! Email from Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service Tomorrow's the Big Day! Get Ready for NC Primary Election Insights. It's Primary Election Day Tomorrow in NC! With early in-person voting

Today's NC Politics Center newsletter just hit inboxes.

Get analysis before tomorrow's NC primary election, along with registering for our upcoming Lunch & Learn webinars, at: myemail.constantcontact.com/Tomorrow-s-t...

And while you are there, sign up for it.

#ncpol

North Carolina Divided on Potential U.S. Military Action Against Iran The January 2026 Catawba–YouGov survey shows that while partisans have clearer views on U.S. military action against Iran, the politically inattentive are far more likely to say they’re not sure

As the nation starts day 3 of the US/Israel/Iran military conflict, a reminder where #ncpol public opinion is on the issue of military strikes against Iran, from January's Catawba-YouGov Survey:

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/north-caro...

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/more-cataw...

Early Vote Energy Before Tuesday's Finish Line for NC's Primary Election North Carolina’s early primary vote hints at shifting enthusiasm, familiar coalitions, and a turnout battle that won’t be settled until the polls close on March 3rd.

Early Vote Energy Before Tuesday's Finish Line for NC's Primary Election

North Carolina’s early primary vote hints at shifting enthusiasm, familiar coalitions, and a turnout battle that won’t be settled until the polls close on March 3rd.

#ncpol

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/early-vote...

In the January Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians, approval of Iran strikes were -8.

But demographic divides exist, along with division among Trump Republicans versus Party Republicans in #ncpol.

Read more at: ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/more-cataw...

Not all NC Republicans agree on Iran strikes:

Trump NC GOP-aligned: 77% approve, 11% disapprove
NC GOP-aligned: 51% approve, 28% disapprove

Iran hawkishness is a Trump base position — not a GOP consensus.

(Catawba-YouGov, Jan. 2026, n=1K weighted NC adults)

substack.com/@ncpoliticsc...

#ncpol

Demographic groups on military strikes vs Iran from January Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 NCians:

Women slightly more disapprove

Whites evenly divided

Conservatives strongly approve / Moderates disapprove / Liberals strongly disapprove

Central cities & rural counties most disapprove

#ncpol

North Carolina Divided on Potential U.S. Military Action Against Iran The January 2026 Catawba–YouGov survey shows that while partisans have clearer views on U.S. military action against Iran, the politically inattentive are far more likely to say they’re not sure

North Carolina Divided on Potential U.S. Military Action Against Iran

January's Catawba–YouGov Survey finds more disapproval than approval of U.S. military action against Iran, with sharp partisan divides and big doubts among the least politically engaged

#ncpol

open.substack.com/pub/ncpoliti...

As of this morning, NC is only ~69K early votes away from surpassing the 2024 presidential primary election number.

Early voting ends today at 3 PM.

#ncpol #ncearlyvote

NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans haven’t closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day

NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script

With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans haven’t closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day

#ncpol

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-early-v...

NC Early Accepted Ballots continue record-setting pace

Through 2-24: 419,714.

Overall, ahead of 2022’s same day total by 30% & 9% of 2024’s.

Dem Primary Ballots 52% ahead of 2022’s same day totals & 38% ahead of 2024’s.

Rep Primary is 8% ahead of 2022 but down 16% from 2024.

#ncpol

Data comes from NC State Board of Elections "absentee_2026_0303.zip" file found here:

dl.ncsbe.gov?prefix=ENRS/...

#ncpol

--30--

NC Early Voter race-ethnicity & party primary picked so far (early in-person voting continues to 3 PM Saturday): racial partisan divide very clear.

Generations: 'younger' voters are gaining some ground (now 15% of all ballots cast), while Boomers are dropping in overall %.

#ncpol

More 'consistent' Democratic registered voters voting this year in primary than Republicans, based on 2020-24 primary voting participation.

Both parties attracted same Unaffiliated 'party' primary voters as they did in the past 3 primaries.

#ncpol

Breakdown of NC voter party by party primary:

Registered Democrats ~54K ahead of Reg Republicans.

Registered Unaffiliated (who can pick either party primary) breaking more Democratic than Republican (~11K)

#ncpol

1/?: Quick update on latest #ncpol NC Early Accepted Ballots cast through yesterday (2-23-26):

Overall, up 32% from 4 years ago (same day 2022) and 10% ahead of 2024's presidential primary.

Democratic primary still well ahead of both years; Republican primary ballots slightly > 2022; < 2024 #s

The Democrats' Appalachian Problem Democrats are no longer competitive in most of Appalachia. And there's little evidence of the trend reversing.

The Democrats have an Appalachian problem.

Here's the evidence ⬇️

open.substack.com/pub/chriscoo...

An Early Surge Is Surprising North Carolina’s Primary Election Ten days of Early Voting is telling us that Democratic ballots are running well ahead of past primaries, unaffiliated voters are tilting left, and the electorate looks older—and familiar.

An Early Surge Is Surprising NC’s Primary Election

Ten days of Early Voting is telling us that Democratic ballots are running well ahead of past primaries, unaffiliated voters are tilting left, and the electorate looks older—and familiar.

#ncpol

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/an-early-s...

An Early Surge Is Surprising North Carolina’s Primary Election Ten days of Early Voting is telling us that Democratic ballots are running well ahead of past primaries, unaffiliated voters are tilting left, and the electorate looks older—and familiar.

With North Carolina entering the last full week of early voting, there's an early surge that is surprising to those in #ncpol world.

New analysis of the first 10 days of early voting by Center director @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social:

open.substack.com/pub/ncpoliti...

State-wide distribution of NC accepted primary ballots by Democratic & Republican party primaries, through 2-21-26:

Democrats heavily concentrated in key urban counties (Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham, Guilford, Buncombe)

Republicans more diffused but concentrated in traditional GOP counties

#ncpol

NC accepted Dem & GOP primary ballots through 10 days of early voting (in-person & mail):

By Race-Ethnicity & Generations

Primary voters: more White & Black vs. voter registration pool (voter pool: White = 63% Black = 19%)

Much older (Gen Z + Millennials = 44% of voter reg pool)

#ncpol

Note: Keen observers will note that 180 registered Republicans and 71 registered Democrats have voted in the other party's primary.

NC voters can "switch" their party registration very easily, so they may 'bounce' in registration status and then return to their 'preferred' party registration.

Going back to 2020 primary election, 46% of 2026 accepted ballots (148K) have come from consistent party primary voters (meaning they voted in 20, 22, 24, and now 26).

So far:

48% of 2026 Dem Primary Voters are consistent
43% of 2026 Rep Primary Voters are consistent

(note in next post)

#ncpol

Numbers by voter party in NC Democratic & Republican primaries, with %s divided between partisan registered voters (who can only vote in their party's primary) and Unaffiliateds (who can pick on party primary to vote in) within each party primary (accepted ballots, both in-person & mail).

#ncpol