Cedric Knight 🌍

TotalEnergies: French court ruling over false climate claims could boost African cases against polluters Some African countries have consumer protection laws that they could use to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for pretending to be green.

More bad news for "Total", and therefore good news for everyone else:
theconversation.com/totalenergie...

Britain withdraws $1.15 billion backing from TotalEnergies-led Mozambique LNG The British government has decided to withdraw its $1.15 billion backing for the TotalEnergies-led Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas project, it said on Monday.

CAMPAIGN WIN 🎉

The UK is withdrawing funding from a massive gas power plant in Mozambique. Funding this carbon bomb would have been a climate and human rights disaster. Thanks to campaigners keeping up the pressure, today we can celebrate this huge win

www.reuters.com/business/ene...

💥 LE FINAL de notre action « Fin de la COP30 : Jour de Colère » - à regarder jusqu’au bout 💙.

@scientifiquesenrebellion.fr et l'Orchestre du nouveau monde jouent le Dies Irae de Verdi après de 8h de lectures de textes scientifiques lors d'une action de 10h marquant les 10 ans de l'Accord de Paris.

Decision time: Tell Keir to #StopRosebank This is the moment we've been building towards: it's final decision time for the UK Government. Equinor is trying to get the new Rosebank oil field re-approved. It's up to us all to convince the Gover...

Hello @scientistsforxr.earth

I hope you all know that the government is shortly to decide whether to scrap or greenlight Rosebank - the UK's biggest undeveloped oil field.

There's a consultation open now. Please have your say BY WEDNESDAY
actionnetwork.org/forms/the-go...

Please share!

Health leaders call on PM to reject Rosebank to protect health - UK Health Alliance on Climate Change Granting access to exploit the Rosebank Field would fly in the face of the Government’s ambition to shift our health service from sickness to prevention, to save our NHS budget, to drive growth in the...

Health leaders: "Granting access to exploit Rosebank would fly in the face of the Gov’s ambition to shift our health service from sickness to prevention, save our NHS budget, drive growth in the green economy & address climate change at pace and scale."
ukhealthalliance.org/news-item/he...

Decision time: Tell Keir to #StopRosebank This is the moment we've been building towards: it's final decision time for the UK Government. Equinor is trying to get the new Rosebank oil field re-approved. It's up to us all to convince the Gover...

Today is the last day of the government Rosebank consultation. If you haven't added your name yet please do:
actionnetwork.org/forms/the-go...

Thresholds of catastrophe in the Earth system The geochemical record of past disruptions of Earth’s carbon cycle reveals thresholds beyond which mass extinction occurs.

There's a difference between non-extinction (some individuals of some genera or families surviving), and abundance.

Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Brannen book:
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

My point is that latent environmental damage (particularly ocean carbon disruption over centuries) *could* end the Cenozoic and sufficient food web productivity and atmosphere to support large mammals.

Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.

The mineral exhaustion reminds me of Stapledon, 'Last and First Men'. I imagine with SLR/climate, there'd also be a taboo against mining. But empires can collapse and leave coil windings.

Why will reactors leak high-level waste? (See criticism of Jem Bendell).

The work of Rothman and associates is so important. There is negative feedback (silicate weathering) at timecales >100,000 years, but positive feedbacks on century/millennia timescales, suggesting potential for a future Canfield ocean. #rothmancarbonthreshold

Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life

PS 3/2: by 'contingent', I mean limited and subject to global change. I can see some European civilisation surviving #AMOCcollapse, but OTOH see human extinction under a Canfield ocean period.

AMOC records are uncertain, as is the tipping point.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

My diagram of four carbon cycles: 400 GtCO₂/year from photosynthesis, 7 to animals, 200 in ocean gas exchange, and very slow natural rates about 0.5 from weathering and carbonate depostion. The slow carbon cycle is massively perturned by 35 GtCO₂/year from coal, oil and gas.

Sorry if you've seen this diagram before, but I use it to argue that biogenic CO₂ and methane is irrelevant on century and longer timescale. We ignore oceans and the #slowcarboncycle at future civilisations' peril.

I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.

#carboncycle

2/2

CO2 proxies over common era (past 2025 years) from Keeling Curve website. Noticeable dip around 1600.

Thanks for links. Hadn't heard of 2030s 'moon wobble'. I'd seen Maslin on CO2 from European invasion. That and Mongol invasion may be detectable on proxy records, but are tiny compared to industrial perturbation. Plus... 1/2.

Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.

The Cuban missile crisis was not the only time we came very close to nuclear war. There are accidental near-launches, and speaking of accountability, scenarios like "A House of Dynamite". Even a India-Pakistan was has been projected to cause 2 bn deaths from nuclear winter. 3/3

...since there is thermal inertia in the oceans. Sea-level rise and glacier retreat would continue, and co-extinctions. Even the AMOC shutdown could take decades to tip. One slow but massive tipping point is the Rothman carbon threshold.

As for nuclear war, that's a little optimistic too IMHO. 2/

Thanks for the reply. These are just my speculations. Hope to read Luke Kemp soon.

I disagree with "on an EOC-inducing pathway, the self-destruction occurs early enough, and EOC causes a climate-rollback." There are slow tipping points not rollback. EOC doesn't lower temperatures... 1/

Gates is thinking about impacts now and tech of the future, when IMHO we should be thinking about impacts now and in future decades and centuries and how we can reduce them immediately.

3/3

Actions now may determine the end of the geological era or epoch. Nuclear war seems more likely to me to cause EOC than economic collapse, but whatever the civilisational risk, my point about climate breakdown is it threatens ecosystem services needed for recovery in future centuries.

2/3

While what Daniel says is true, I'd agree we need to consider low-probability high-impact systemic failures, and they may not be as low-probability with knowledge about tipping points since Schneider.

Climate damage to ecosystems is deeper than extreme weather. That goes even bigger than EOC..

"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.

Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.

"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.

Climate folk can worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also want attention on less certain risks and #tippingpoints.

a chart showing the shifting projections of temp each year

Here's the other problem: as @climateactiontracker.org point out in the report Gates' staffers either didn't read or chose to ignore - the shifting projections from 'bad' to 'less bad' STOPPED SHIFTING after covid and MIGHT BE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS MORE BAD

climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...

National Emergency Briefing on climate & nature An unfiltered assessment of the latest threats to UK food supply, health and national security from eight leading experts to an invitation-only audience - also covering positive solutions. Westminster...

Very much agree about urgency of ending fossil fuels, so in the UK doing what I can to #StopRosebank and ask representatives to attend nebriefing.org.

Even for tipping points that take more than a century to play out, we should think responsibly in terms of the #SevenGenerationsPrinciple.

🌍💚

Climate-fueled hurricane Melissa is in "extreme rapid intensification" now. Already a cat. 4 hurricane with winds of 225 km/h, having added 65 km/h in just 12 hours.
Looking very bad for Jamaica.

A damaging hurricane in a warmer world The value of considering historical extreme storms

As Hurricane #Melissa approaches Jamaica, we look back to a similar event in August 1903.

The rainfall from that storm would have been more intense in today’s warmer climate.

#Melissa will likely drop more rain now than it would have done a century ago.

climatelabbook.substack.com/p/a-damaging...

It's one of the more technical climate papers I've tried to read. My reading: most models need more tuning.

Does it mean collapse is likely years or decades after SPG tipping point?

"The delayed positive feedback from SPG to SSS [salinity] ... is expected to have a lag of 5–10 years."

YouTube video by Dr Gilbz We've reached the climate's first tipping point

🪸 Coral reefs are already reaching breaking point - and we're rapidly approaching other critical climate red lines.

That's according to the latest tipping points report that came out last week.

Watch here: youtu.be/p9S_IKwwyeM

Stand in solidarity with the Odette Case claimants! Survivors of Typhoon Odette are taking Shell to court over its contribution to the climate crisis and the devastation of the super typhoon. Stand with them!

Profits should never cost lives. I’m standing with the survivors of #TyphoonOdette in the #Philippines in their fight against Shell. #TheOdetteCase

Add your name to join me:
www.odettecase.org/take-action

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Specifically, we have fossil fuel companies and related social institutions to blame for risks like collapse of AMOC and the subpolar gyre.

🚨BREAKING: fossil fuel reps met government ministers 500+ times in Labour’s first year in power.

💀 That’s two meetings every working day, overshadowing the meetings held with climate and social justice groups by three to one (1/5)