Jim Messina

Trump is breaking the law so he can block food assistance for millions of hungry kids, veterans, & the elderly in his attempt to stop Democrats from lowering your health care costs.

Cruel policy *AND* bad politics, especially on an Election Day where "affordability" is a top issue!!

The Post-Election Wilderness Come Wednesday morning, Democrats are going to be tempted to look for a single takeaway from Tuesday’s results, desperate for a clear path out of the wilderness.

By tomorrow, the hot takes will be everywhere, but there will be no single headline that explains today's results. Virginia, New Jersey, & NYC each tell a different story about where power is shifting. Read my new post, "The Post-Election Wilderness", here: messinamemo.substack.com/p/the-post-e...

Polls are open, New Jersey! Find your polling location here:

MikieSherrill.com/polls

🚨Virginia! Polls are now open.

Make your voices heard. Find your polling location at abigailspanberger.com/vote

Sen. Warner: We're the wealthiest country in the world. We shouldn't have 1 out of 8 of Americans now going hungry, and also seeing their health care costs \triple. I don't know whether Trump has any empathy. He should get in the damn room, get the government open, get these benefits going.

Gov. Maura Healey: “The President should be more focused on feeding the American people than throwing parties for his rich friends.”

Health insurance sticker shock begins as shutdown battle over subsidies rages Many states have shown rising premiums ahead of open enrollment for Affordable Care Act plans. The government shutdown is driven by Democrats and Republicans being far apart on the issue of extended s...

Health care & econ issues are two most important issues to voters right now. Families across US are experiencing health care sticker shock while GOP keeps the govt shut down instead of extending ACA subsidies. Smart Dems like Ossoff are locking in on this.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...

Why won’t Ashley Hinson stand up for Iowa farmers getting crushed by tariffs?

She admitted in January they’d cause harm – now she’s silent as $40 billion in taxpayer money goes to Argentina. #IASen

How to win an information war with the White House Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, unusual among the president’s antagonists, has begun to beat the White House at its own game — the visual, visceral, and at times post-literate politics of 2025.

Pritzker has taken Trump’s troop deployment to court *and* the media battlefield—using video evidence, facts, and local voices as tools of accountability rather than just statements. Interesting model for how governors can push back against federal overreach. www.semafor.com/article/10/1...

The Front Lines of Trump's Trade War? Look at Kentucky Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear on how Trump’s trade war is hitting the state’s manufacturing hubs – not to mention bourbon.

Know there’s a lot of handwringing about Dems, but wanted to highlight some great work going on in cities and states. Beshear’s doing what Dems need to do nationally as Trump’s tariffs jack up prices—talk straight about kitchentable economics & fight for workers. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Republicans shut the government down so they could raise health costs for 22M Americans, 80% of whom live in states Trump won.

Couples earning $32K could see premiums jump to $1,300; at $53K, costs double to $4,240; at $95K, premiums soar to $19K.

4.8M could lose coverage entirely.

Government shutdown: a guide for advocates Polling report on awareness of and blame for the government shutdown.

👀 numbers on the shutdown and health care from new @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social polling

- Overall, Americans blame Trump & Republicans for the shutdown by 13 points.
-Independents reject compromising on health care by a massive 29-point margin.
navigatorresearch.org/government-s...

Leader Jeffries: The House Republican spending bill continues to gut the health care of the American people. House Democrats rejected it because it was an attack on veterans, children, housing affordability, and health care.

GOP Districts ‘Supercharged’ Obamacare Use Is Risk in Shutdown Fight The health insurance subsidies at the center of the US government shutdown fight disproportionately benefit areas of the country represented by Republican lawmakers, posing a potential vulnerability f...

The GOP's government shutdown over ACA subsidies hits their own base:

• 12M enrollees in GOP districts vs 9M in Dem ones
• GOP holds 47 of 75 highest-enrollment districts
• Ending subsidies = premiums ↑114%, 4M lose coverage

Stay on offense: tie every GOP vote to rising costs & spotlight pain.

Opinion | These 6 Charts Explain Why the Government Shut Down

From @steverattner.bsky.social's op-ed:

"Thanks to Republican legislators, a 55-year-old couple making $85k annually could see their health insurance cost more than triple, to $24,535 a year. Obviously that’s unaffordable, which is why so many will drop coverage." www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/o...

More Voters Say They’d Blame Republicans Than Democrats for a Shutdown Awareness of funding talks has grown as more see a funding lapse as likely compared with the March standoff

Trump and Republicans own this shutdown and voters agree by a big 13-point margin.
pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/gov...

Joining Chris Jansing on @msnbc.com at 12:25pm ET/10:25am MT to talk Trump's fourth government shutdown.

Trump & GOP knows they have a losing argument. Here’s what they want: 22 MILLION Americans seeing their health insurance premiums double because Republicans refused to extend ACA tax credits.

Not a great answer when Trump is 17 points underwater on his handling of health care.

77% support Congress extending the ACA tax credits, including *80% of Independents* and *63% of Republicans*.

Health care costs are about to skyrocket for 22 MILLION Americans by an average of *75%* because Republicans failed to extend ACA premium tax credits in their disaster of a budget bill.

Assume polling is going to be bouncy these next few weeks but in the Economist/YouGov weekly track Trump's job approval with adults went from -13 (41-54) last week to -18 this week (39-57). He's -50 with independents, 19-69.

Walkinshaw's win last night is part of a bigger story. Dems have won or over-performed the top of the '24 ticket in 42 of 43 key elections in 2025.

Trump's Big Ugly Bill & tariffs are failing. The GOP is running scared. They've given us the opening on economic messaging—time to take it and run.

Joining Chris Jansing at 12:50pm ET/10:50am MT on @msnbc to discuss yesterday's tech CEO meeting at the WH + today's new (and bad) jobs data. Tune in.

The 1988 Trap: Democrats Are in Danger of Repeating a Painful Lesson Why Democrats Must Work to Avoid Repeating Another Devastating Loss

Trump’s approval numbers are brutal — but bad GOP numbers don’t elect Democrats. We learned that lesson the hard way in 1988. Fail to deliver a clear economic vision, and Trumpism will write the ending in 2028. messinamemo.substack.com/p/the-1988-t...

Exclusive | Americans Lose Faith That Hard Work Leads to Economic Gains, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds Trump is contending with a disconnect between the nation’s sour outlook and traditional measures showing a robust economy.

www.wsj.com/economy/wsj-...

Trump Ratings and U.S. Mood Stay Tepid in August Americans haven't changed their minds about President Trump or the economy over the past month, with ratings of both holding at less-than-optimal levels.

Gallup: Trump’s econ. approval just 37%, down from 52% avg in first term.

WSJ-NORC: 75% say the next generation won’t be better off. Nearly 70% say American Dream is dead or never real--highest in 15 yrs.

Brutal combo for Trump & GOP heading into Nov. elections & 2026 midterms.

The 1988 Trap: Democrats Are in Danger of Repeating a Painful Lesson Why Democrats Must Work to Avoid Repeating Another Devastating Loss

Being anti-Trump isn’t a strategy. To win in 2028, Democrats need a clear economic message, credible leadership, and values voters actually connect with. I’m breaking this down (and more) in my new Substack, The Messina Memo. messinamemo.substack.com/p/the-1988-t...

Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets Among Medicaid Recipients In the wake of deep cuts by the GOP, Americans on Medicaid increasingly disapprove of the president

Keep an eye on this⬇️ Trump's approval rating has completely tanked with Medicaid recipients.

First week in office...

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 34%

Today?

Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 55%

That's a net approval drop of *37 points*!
pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/don...

Host: Headline PPI number is whoppingly big. Oh my goodness. Up 0.9%. And if you strip out food and energy guess what? It's still up 0.9%. Now let's look at ex-food, energy and trade; triple the expectations. Every single metric is higher than expected

Trump promised his tariffs wouldn’t hurt Americans, but
prices for producers are soaring, and inflation is on its way to your wallet.

Trump's tariffs aren’t “making China pay.” They’re making YOU pay.

Looking forward to joining Joe Mathieu on @bloomberg.com "Balance of Power" at 5:45pm ET/3:45pm MT to talk about the GOP's partisan redistricting power grab. Tune in.