Richard Colwell

Latest RED C @businesspost poll sees FF fall again, as SF & Soc. Dems make gains.
Sinn Féin 24% +2
Fine Gael 18% +1
Fianna Fáil 15% -3
Independent 13% -1
Soc. Dems 10% +2
Labour 5% +1
Aontú 5% -1
Ind. Ireland 4% =
PBP-Solidarity 3% =
Green Party 2% -1
Net: Other 1%

@businesspost.bsky.social our final presidential poll for @businesspost.bsky.social will be released tonight at 8pm.

Well that this weekends poll fieldwork messed up 😂

UK well on its way to follow the US to loony politics after those local election results.

Oh David. From someone who loves polling, that is a very strange comment. Understanding the publics political leanings and trends in support for parties over the longer term is always useful. I’m sure you have used these trends in the past to understand voter sentiment between elections.

Hers is my article on those gains for SF. Look great, but also very similar to the gains seen post the 2020 election. Can they translate this into real votes at an election?

Latest @businesspost.bsky.social poll out today sees SF extend their lead in first preference vote to 4% ahead of other parties.

Latest @businessposthq poll sees signs of “buyers remorse” as FF loses share, and opposition parties make small gains. businesspost.ie/api/oc-post/?u…

So wrong Anton

#GE24

RED C are very proud of how close our final @businessposthq pre election poll was, matching our success at the last GE in 2020. With an average error of just 0.8%, we predicted Fianna Fail as the largest party & that they would be most transfer friendly. redcresearch.com/red-c-accuracy…

@REDCResearch & @businessposthq last poll vs. exit poll. Average error of just 0.9%. Plenty of votes still to be counted. But suggests very accurate polling from all the Irish polling industry. Putting to bed the view that polls are always wrong AND that online polls don’t work!

Politics podcast: Exclusive final poll before General Election 2024 The Business Post politics team discuss the last poll of the campaign with Richard Colwell, of Red C Research

www.businesspost.ie/politics/pol...

@businesspost poll
27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov)

Fianna Fáil 21% (=)
Fine Gael 20% (-2%)
Sinn Fein 20% (+2%)
Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%)
Soc Dems 6% (=)
Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%)
Green 4% (=)
Labour 4% (+1%)
Aontú 4% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 2% (=)
Others 1% (=)

Moe +\- 3%
FW 20th-26th

Is it just me or is the @irishtimes.bsky.social poll only adding up to at best 98% with other parties. Understand this can happen due to rounding, but unusual to be 2% off the total.

VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates Phase two of the Irish Independent’s election tool ‘VoteSmart’ has gone live.

Here’s one for those wanting to know how their policy positions compare with the parties

www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates

Great if you want help trying to decide who to vote for

Was there a “moment” of the week? 😂

Great book

Anyone else think Mary Lou just seems a little out of sorts tonight? Not her usual assured self, and appears caught slightly off guard each time she is asked a question. #ge24 #upfront

Probably “right”

A lot more time for larger parties in this 10 party debate as expected and probably tight. Yet have to feel sorry for some of the smaller parties. Think Joan Collins has had about 20 seconds speaking time so far.

Can I have a yes or a no - will be a constant refrain me thinks #GE24 #Leadersdebate

Not sure we are going to see much change tbh. Baked in already maybe? SF will do better ham at locals, but that already in the numbers. Big question is who of FF or FG gets more seats.

If you’re looking for accounts to follow, this is a very good tool.

bsky-follow-finder.theo.io

To be clear, he won—I've seen zero evidence suggesting fraud. My point is that a 128,000-vote swing in 3 states would have led to a Harris administration. We remain a closely divided nation where informed voters voted for Harris and uninformed voters are about to be wildly surprised at what happens.

go.bsky.app/6jV8qvJ This starter pack of Irish Media Personalities & Outlets has reached 100. These are suggestions not endorsements.

Thanks @stefanmueller.bsky.social
Also worth noting that the upward trend in support for SF went in a similar way. Youngest age groups grew support first, then support for grew for SF among mid age groups and only after that the oldest age groups (The growth among oldest age groups was the least)

Only 2 polls so far this GE campaign. Face to face by Ipsos polling seems to show FG with a greater lead. But FF historically outperforms polls. FF currently higher share in the online polls, that they gave out about 3-4 months ago! Very tight among the top 3 tbh. Key to see any momentum in next wk.

Lucky enough to be in Venice today, visiting amazing sights and eating amazing food, but glued to rugby. Seems to be going much better for Ireland tonight.