Emre Ozdenoren

The interesting thing is not that the 20% probability event occurred but that the probabilities did not continuously converge to the correct outcome. Until the last second market was not only putting strictly positive probability on the wrong outcome, this probability was 60%!

I thought it meant passing up the three point shot.

Papers might as well declare "Data available upon victory in a duel."

This recent fraud case is also a cautionary tale for any research based on proprietary data source.

The race between automation and new work | Microeconomic Insights Casual observation and historical evidence suggest this picture is incomplete: as employment in previously labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture, textiles, mining, and manufacturing has eroded, ...

The race between automation and new work | Microeconomic Insights | The findings raise urgent new questions about how labor demand changes as new work emerges, and how AI technologies will reshape tasks and occupations in the decades ahead. microeconomicinsights.org/the-race-bet...

The old global economic order is dead

Get ready for tomorrow's talk:

Sad news. I overlapped with Pat for a year at Michigan. He managed to supervise PhD students during his short time there and made an impact.

The upcoming crisis is so needlessly self inflicted. You cannot replace actual experts with pseudo-experts and believe that nothing will go wrong. Would you accept medical treatment from your barber however good he or she is at cutting your hair?

X’s dominance ‘over’ as Bluesky becomes new hub for research Data indicates more scholars turning to alternative social media site to post about their work after Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover

Bluesky has overtaken its flailing rival X in hosting posts related to new academic research, indicating the platform is fast becoming the go-to place for scholars to share their work, reports @patrickjack.bsky.social
#AcademicSky

Soon we will discover that markets don’t care about demagoguery on podcasts by know it alls.

To be fair (and I have no idea who he is) he is not asking what comparative advantage is. He is asking why it would lead to trade deficit which seems to be a fair question.

All that will happen is that consumers will experience higher prices and/or lower quality products.

It will take a long time for the industries to recover if at all, and if they do they will most likely still be not competitive since whatever the underlying structural reasons that they failed in the first place will still be there.

The most difficult part of moving from a protectionist trade environment to one without trade barriers is the transition where industries that can’t compete lay off workers. But once that transition is complete, going back to protectionism won’t bring those jobs back.

You are paternalistic by default not by choice.

Watch out. There is a new tariff in town.

There is a world of difference between finite, countable infinite and continuum. If you don’t believe me ask Cantor.

Boeing and Intel each had one major competitor (AirBus and TSMC). They are both losing market share to competition. And it has little to do with trade barriers. Instead of focusing on tariffs, government should ask why these big manufacturers are losing out to competitors.

It was joke playing on the fact that the post is about worrying about worrying.

Technically it can be true. Just means outflows of immigrants.

It seems to me that you are over-worrying about over-worriers.

Presidential pardons seem to be a questionable part of the US constitution. It is a reminder that constitution is a document written by humans under the constraints of its day.

I also put algebra there that I don't want to delete (in case I want to recall my steps) but I don't want others to see.

What they are doing is something like seeing that your kitchen tap is dripping and cutting off water from the whole house and blowing up your kitchen. Obviously every large and complex enough system has inefficiencies but the way to correct them is not to destroy the entire system.

Bread art:)

It may be relevant if the originator of the fiat money cares about its seignorage. Only the originator incurs the cost and the subsequent holders do not incur the cost, which creates a wedge.

How do you think of something like alpha fold? It does not involve any conceptual innovation but does something which is an input for other things extremely efficiently. I guess this type of innovation is not all that useful in economics and social sciences but may be useful in natural sciences.

Rani Spiegler’s take on the email game in his recent book is worth reading.

Wow. Glad you are not hurt.