Stephen Evans

Blue promotional graphic for Week of VocTech featuring logos of each of the partners involved in this week-long event Text next to a 3x3 grid of logos reads: Join us to celebrate the impact of VocTech and inspire action to transform UK skills 16-20 March 2026 In-person and online weekofvoctech.co.uk

Week of VocTech is proudly backed by leading organisations across the skills, training, and adult learning ecosystem

Want to get involved with the Week of VocTech activity happening from 16-20 March 2026?

Explore the full programme of in-person and online events: https://weekofvoctech.co.uk/events

New data show NEET rates are stabilising, but remain too high. Almost 1 in 7 YP estimated to be NEET, 957k 16-24 year olds. Within this there's a rise in the number unemployed & falls in those economically inactive. More YP are looking for work, but facing a tougher labour market.

“Rises in the number of unemployed Neets and falls in the number of economically inactive shows more young people are looking for work but many are facing challenges finding a job.”

📰 Read @stephenevans.bsky.social's comments on NEET levels in @telegraph.co.uk: www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Good news: NEET numbers look to be stabilising. Bad news (with data caveats): more are looking for work but need the jobs to find, and rates are higher for 21-24 year olds most of whom aren't eligible for the 18-21 Youth Guarantee in England.

I think the split by age (with caveats about NSA, LFS etc) is interesting too. Higher NEET rates for 21-22 & 23-24. But those are mostly out of scope of the Youth Guarantee in England...

But a not-much-change stats release is also good chance to zoom out and think bigger about where the UK stands vs other countries. We're not the worst, but look what those top countries achieve. The NEET rate in the Netherlands is a *third* as high as the UK's. That's just such a big difference.

The economy's capacity to absorb AI is heavily constrained by people, institutions, culture. We are not going to see a sudden disruption. This time isn't different (a bit faster maybe).

We have time to get policy right but not unlimited amounts.

www.mckinsey.com/uk/our-insig...

Responding to the latest NEET data, February 2026 - Learning and Work Institute Learning and Work Institute chief executive Stephen Evans responds to the NEET data released on 26 February 2026.

"Almost one in seven young people is not in education, employment or training, risking long-term damage to their career prospects."

💬 L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social responds to today's ONS data on young people not in education, employment or training.

2. Men remain more likely to be NEET, a trend that's emerged since the pandemic. And NEET rates are highest for 21-24 year olds. Reminder the Government's Youth Guarantee in England covers 18-21s. All shows need for more decisive action - being NEET can have LT career impacts.

New data show NEET rates are stabilising, but remain too high. Almost 1 in 7 YP estimated to be NEET, 957k 16-24 year olds. Within this there's a rise in the number unemployed & falls in those economically inactive. More YP are looking for work, but facing a tougher labour market.

‘Fundamentally wrong’: Greater Lincs approves ESOL cuts Plans to cut funding for English language lessons to avoid alleged “segregation” have been approved in Greater Lincolnshire, amid concerns harm to integration

🗣️ Plans to cut funding for English language lessons to avoid alleged 'segregation' have been approved in Greater Lincolnshire, amid concerns about “serious harm” to local community integration.

https://feweek.co.uk/fundamentally-wrong-greater-lincolnshire-leaders-approve-esol-cuts/

#AI adoption drives productivity growth, right? Just see the chart below (R2 = .37, p < 0.01)! Wait - have a closer look. AI-exposed sectors' productivity grew faster until Q1 2020, pre-ChatGPT. Check out the real story in our upcoming article (will post link here when live). #dataisbeautiful

🚨New report from us BCG CfG today🚨 we take a sector & firm view of UK productivity growth over past 3 decades, including benchmarking against peers. UK is falling back from global frontier but for quite different reasons in different sectors 1/

Employment and Skills Convention 2026 - Learning and Work Institute On Thursday 2 July 2026, the Employment and Skills Convention returns to Manchester.

Registrations are open for the Employment and Skills Convention 2026!

This year, we'll explore how to grow opportunity and unlock potential in a changing workforce.

📆 Thursday 2 July
🕑 All day

Thank you to our sponsors Maximus, Ingeus, Edge Foundation and Youth Futures Foundation.

#EmpSkills26

Join our team - Learning and Work Institute

Join the L&W team!

There's still time to apply to be a:
⭐ Deputy Director - to help us generate insights that enable more people to move into and progress through better work
⭐ Head of Research - to lead innovative, impactful research and evaluation projects on employment and skills

#hiring

Important & well made point. Declining graduate premium tells us at least as much about the state of the economy as about an oversupply of graduates. I wonder if rising minimum wage, compressing the distribution, also has an impact? Same with overqualification; flipside is underutilisation of skills

Is AI making work more intense? Using agents appears to increase the number of hours worked and the exhausting nature of tasks

Really interesting back and forth by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and @sarahoconnorft.ft.com in their newsletter today:

Why men are finding themselves out of work and on the scrapheap Males tend to work in industries that have been hardest hit by tax increases and structural change

"More men are looking for work, and the sectors where vacancies and jobs have declined more are male-dominated."

Read L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social's comments on male unemployment in @telegraph.co.uk. 📰

Normally you'd expect growing sectors to have to increase pay to attract people. But sectors with the fastest pay growth have seen some of the biggest falls in payroll employment. Partly, I'd say, because employer costs (NMW & NICs) are rising faster than employers can rise prices or productivity.

Labour Market Briefing: February 2026 - Learning and Work Institute Our analysis of the ONS labour market statistics, released on the morning of 17 February 2026.

📉🤯📉 Should we be panicking about the labour market? I have commandeered the L&W monthly briefing + our expert team to help me think this question through. 🤯📉🤯

You can read the whole thing here - but here are some headline thoughts...

learningandwork.org.uk/labour-marke...

Working in the think tank sector Webinar for undergraduates or those with similar experience interested in working in the sector Think tanks are research organisations that develop ideas and suggestions for action on a whole range of subjects affecting society. Using research, analysis and commentary, we aim to inform and influence politicians, policy makers and the public. This event is aimed at people from Black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups, people with work-limiting health conditions or impairments, young adults with caring responsibilities (including young parents), mature students, people from lower-income backgrounds, care leavers and LGBT+ students. Wednesday 18 February 2026 3:30 pm - 6:05 pm

Thinking of a career in think tanks?

On Wednesday, we're hosting a webinar for undergraduates or those with similar experience interested in working in the sector. We'll have speakers from numerous organisations sharing their insight and experience.

Register here 👉 buff.ly/a3cO0df

ASHE data shows a similar picture. And I've included real terms for comparison. [Charts produced by copilot as an experiment - I've sensechecked the data thought].

On pay, PAYE data (which is partial, e.g. doesn't include most self-employment) shows lower paid have generally had bigger pay rises than average or higher paid as minimum wage has risen over last decade. These are nominal data & overall growth slow so not claiming 'we've never had it so good'!

Bonus chart. Here's the change in 3m average payroll employment. 3m average to limit the effect of latest data being more provisional. But this is not a good picture. Reminder: population rises over time so some running to stand still on jobs. Reminder 2: like all data, PAYE has its flaws.

By the way, the Government has an ambition for an 80% employment rate (no timeframe - in my view would need c10 years). When it took office, 75% of 16-64 year olds were in work. Now, 75% are in work. OBR projection for 2030 equivalent to, 75%. Hmm...

Really great column

Another cheery pull quote from me. Points of hope would be that the labour market isn't going off a cliff, figures get revised, and the Government can take action to create a more business friendly environment & help more people look for work.

Definitely the case that rising employer costs plus a flattish economy equals likelihood of reduced hiring, yes.

To illustrate the point about hiring. 600k people started a new payroll job in December; down from 650-700k in post-pandemic years. Proportion of people LFS estimates are starting a new job (from out of work or another job) also trending down. Labour market softening is broadly falling hiring.

Correction, PAYE drop last month is revised to 5.6K (rather than 2k). Point still stands: these figures can be revised a fair bit, but overall no doubt the labour market is flattening / weakening.