Conor Sen

Geez, Talarico up to 90% — I know the nerds have been saying Dallas turnout is soft today, but that’s a lot of confidence!

Congestion Pricing Wins in Court After Lengthy Battle With Trump

BREAKING: A federal judge on Tuesday ruled that New York’s congestion pricing toll is legal and may continue, handing a major victory to the state in its defense of the first-in-the-nation traffic reduction plan, which the Trump administration had tried for more than a year to kill.

*KASHKARI: WOULD LOVE IT IF POWELL STAYS ON AS FED GOVERNOR

*APPLE HIKES MACBOOK AIR, MACBOOK PRO PRICES WITH NEW MODELS

Right, you can't run back "Barack Obama's popular VP."

Clyburn only had the opportunity to do that because the Bernie/Warren lane couldn't coalesce and Buttigieg/Bloomberg/Klobuchar supporters wanted to unify behind a moderate.

Yep, that’s part of the story.

Meanwhile someone like Gavin is clearly trying to win the “Clyburn primary” for 2028, but maybe the circumstances of 2020 were unique rather than a playbook to follow.

This is more food for thought than confident analysis, but it’s interesting how Cuomo and Crockett are/were stronger with Black and older voters while Mamdani and Talarico have bases that are younger, more multi-racial, more TikTok-ish.

Just as a forecasting exercise it’s going to be fascinating to see how prediction markets and the Hispanic vote turn out — someone’s framework was very wrong, we just don’t know which one:

Oh, stocks are down 30% before that happens imo.

I think we’d see risk assets tank more than hikes meaningfully priced and that’s how we’d tighten financial conditions.

I highlight him from time to time but Viresh is one of the better markets/econ follows on here, and particularly in this crisis has better insight than I do.

Yeah makes sense.

From an energy supply shock situation people will turn to Russia/Ukraine, but in February 2022 jobs and incomes and housing were still booming, the Fed was still at ZIRP, stimulus was still running through the economy. We don’t have any of that now.

Just from a game theory perspective, I don’t see how this gets better before it gets worse.

$80 oil isn’t high enough to hit trump’s pain threshold

Current dmg on Iran isn’t enough to hit theirs

Euro Stoxx now flat YTD:

Yep

Gasoline futures are up $0.55/gallon since Thursday morning:

Retail gasoline prices were up $0.11/gallon yesterday. Will probably make this a thread until it settles down:

SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics down 11-12% (Korea was closed yesterday for a holiday):

Stereo MC’s - Connected
Jeff Buckley - Lover, You Should’ve Come Over
Cranberries - Linger

I’m watching any miniseries where you get all that in one episode.

6 troops

Lame for the discourse — c’mon, give us some movement.

Yeah, I think he has less tolerance for views he disagrees with.

I try to have respect for the professionals I disagree with as a matter of decorum.

Yeah, I try to harbor no ill will against anyone online, just prefer not to share a space with him on this platform.

How Trump Decided to Go to War

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel walked into the Oval Office on the morning of Feb. 11, determined to keep the American president on the path to war.” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/u...

Sounds like he got ganged up on over something.

Walter just posted this: IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS COMMANDER SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED, IRAN TO SET ON FIRE ANY SHIP TRYING TO PASS -IRANIAN MEDIA