Conor Sen

Obama’s Fed picks included Powell, Yellen, Brainard, Fischer.

40-year JGB yields:

Yeah, who knows how long this current era lasts but Obama’s 2012 looks more and more impressive (and even his party still got routed in 2014).

In the same way that MLB teams know that starting pitchers tend to do much worse in their third time through the batting order, political parties probably shouldn’t run presidents for second terms.

Fox News Poll: Voters say White House is doing more harm than good on economy President Trump faces record-high disapproval ratings among core supporters as 76% of voters view the economy negatively, according to a new Fox News poll.

“Ratings are notably bad (roughly 70% negative), among non-college voters, Hispanics, Blacks, independents, and those under age 45. For those with household income below $50K, fully 79% rate their finances negatively.” www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

The Biden Administration’s Federal Reserve Failures The Biden Administration did not send the best central bankers. What will the Democrats learn from the experience?

“The real failure here is not the seedy behavior of one unethical central banker, it is the failure of the entire Biden Administration to take central bank appointments seriously.” petercontibrown.substack.com/p/the-biden-...

We’ll see what happens but this $NVDA report doesn’t feel like it’ll be a big narrative/market mover.

Claude got it wrong:

No worse business in the world right now than a supplier for the residential construction industry:

$META vs $GOOGL is a fun one too:

In the past 5 years $MSFT has basically always had a higher valuation than $AAPL but because of how much it's underperformed since August it's now at 28x forward earnings vs 32x for Apple:

GMTA

If you forced me to trade it I'd sell vol.

"Many participants, however, remarked that overall inflation had been above target for some time and had shown little sign of returning sustainably to the 2 percent objective in a timely manner."

15-20% chance of a December cut seems about right at the moment.

If they're skipping a meeting the only way they cut a couple times in the first half of 2026 is with some nasty labor market data or a stock market decline.

25-50bps of cuts from here wouldn't do anything.

"Many" is more than "several."

"Likely not" is more definitive than "could well be."

Choose your adventure:

*FED: `MANY' SAW DECEMBER RATE CUT AS LIKELY NOT APPROPRIATE

*FED: `SEVERAL' SAID DECEMBER CUT `COULD WELL BE' APPROPRIATE

Sub-$89k

Credit where it’s due — there continues to be slow and steady improvement in this platform.

This is a good take. 100% endorse.

So no jobs report until after the meeting, no cut.

There’s this inherent tension between the Pelosi-era Dem view of “Our unity is our strength” and the message from voters that Dems need to change.

"AI, Gemini, stagflation, Trump, demographics..."

idk 6.5% free cash flow yield for bleach

I feel like at some point over the next 2 years I'll have wished I just went 100% long $CLX and ignored all the noise.

Yeah I like it there.

Software in general trades poorly.

$COST $HD $V $MA $META all trade at ~April levels. Quibble about valuation or industry dynamics all you want, that's a pretty big swath of the economy and high-quality companies.

I've never heard a compelling reason why it deserve to be structurally way higher than 35x forward earnings. Maybe it gets there!