Conor Sen

Glad I’m not an oil trader.

You can't fill up your gas tank with a short futures position.

You think about what a science fiction report on AI did to software stocks, and here we have an actual energy crisis and people are largely shrugging at it.

Bloklahoma is still fun to type out/say.

Gasoline futures are up 60c/gallon on the week and a name like $SBUX is flat.

I'm genuinely stunned at how little consumer discretionary/energy-intensive stocks are down on the week.

NOEM OUT

It doesn't seem like he has the ability to do a unilateral TACO here.

Exclusive | Trump Is Preparing to Fire Kristi Noem The president has already been asking aides and congressional Republicans for names of potential replacements.

Noem is toast.

*ORACLE PLANS THOUSANDS OF JOB CUTS AS DATA CENTER COSTS RISE

Reason to think this energy crisis won't resolve soon.

With oil still grinding higher, feels like the risk/reward on stocks is up 2-3% vs down ???

@ivanthek.bsky.social You do the dog tail-wagging graphic with oil/risk assets yet?

Genuinely think at this point people are ignoring the many indicators of a prolonged military engagement that’s likely with Iran (regional escalation, the entire track record of the 20+ year aftermath of every comparable U.S.-led regime-change operation since 2001).

The market rotating into SaaS 10 days after the Citrini shock because it's worried about the oil impact on the real economy is objectively funny.

I wonder where Atlanta will stack up.

I believe just first mortgages, but not sure.

I'm not an energy analyst but I don't think we can get back to normal economic analysis/forecasting until energy supply/prices start to normalize.

21% of homeowners who have a mortgage have a mortgage rate above 6%: www.redfin.com/news/mortgag...

All of that together isn't enough to tip things into recession, but it's not the tax refund boost/reacceleration people were hoping for coming into 2026.

I feel like over the next few months headline CPI will be spiky because of energy, you've got the increase in memory prices flowing through consumer electronics, real consumption growth might be negative because of the hit from gas prices, and then housing remains stuck.

*BERKSHIRE COMMENCED SHARE BUYBACKS ON WEDNESDAY: FILING

YouTube video by Jason Esteves For Georgia BREAK THROUGH 30 Youtube

Glad to see Jason Esteves on the air in the Georgia Dem gubernatorial race. I think he'd be the most competitive Dem vs Keisha Lance Bottoms in a runoff, and the most important thing is making sure she's not the nominee: www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEFR...

Retail gasoline prices up 5c/gallon yesterday:

Need to get Martha Stewart here to post one misspelled three letter word.

*CHINA TELLS TOP REFINERS TO SUSPEND DIESEL, GASOLINE EXPORTS

Gasoline futures now up 90c/gallon YTD, if that all flows through to retail and prices stay here it’s a $120 billion/year drag for US consumers:

So glad you did this, I was gonna ask. But ugh 1,000 calories is way over my lunch budget.

Ever since software stocks started selling off and then going through the Citrini post and Iran, markets have largely been responding to scenarios and shocks, probably time to start converging to the data and economic outlook again over the next few weeks.

Bitcoin +6%
$TSLA +4%
$AMZN +4%
$META +2.5%

Just one of those days.