Conor Sen

Just as a forecasting exercise it’s going to be fascinating to see how prediction markets and the Hispanic vote turn out — someone’s framework was very wrong, we just don’t know which one:

Oh, stocks are down 30% before that happens imo.

I think we’d see risk assets tank more than hikes meaningfully priced and that’s how we’d tighten financial conditions.

I highlight him from time to time but Viresh is one of the better markets/econ follows on here, and particularly in this crisis has better insight than I do.

Yeah makes sense.

From an energy supply shock situation people will turn to Russia/Ukraine, but in February 2022 jobs and incomes and housing were still booming, the Fed was still at ZIRP, stimulus was still running through the economy. We don’t have any of that now.

Just from a game theory perspective, I don’t see how this gets better before it gets worse.

$80 oil isn’t high enough to hit trump’s pain threshold

Current dmg on Iran isn’t enough to hit theirs

Euro Stoxx now flat YTD:

Yep

Gasoline futures are up $0.55/gallon since Thursday morning:

Retail gasoline prices were up $0.11/gallon yesterday. Will probably make this a thread until it settles down:

SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics down 11-12% (Korea was closed yesterday for a holiday):

Stereo MC’s - Connected
Jeff Buckley - Lover, You Should’ve Come Over
Cranberries - Linger

I’m watching any miniseries where you get all that in one episode.

6 troops

Lame for the discourse — c’mon, give us some movement.

Yeah, I think he has less tolerance for views he disagrees with.

I try to have respect for the professionals I disagree with as a matter of decorum.

Yeah, I try to harbor no ill will against anyone online, just prefer not to share a space with him on this platform.

How Trump Decided to Go to War

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel walked into the Oval Office on the morning of Feb. 11, determined to keep the American president on the path to war.” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/u...

Sounds like he got ganged up on over something.

Walter just posted this: IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS COMMANDER SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED, IRAN TO SET ON FIRE ANY SHIP TRYING TO PASS -IRANIAN MEDIA

I blocked Jamelle Bouie on here awhile ago not over a disagreement (though we did have a disagreement), but because the network effects of his followers on here led to some pretty toxic outcomes after he QT’ed me a couple times. Hope he’s okay.

No, he’s bullshitting, he doesn’t mean it.

You would think of all people the biggest proponent of return-to-office would never ever tolerate a 4 day a week work culture.

What does Dubai give me that I can’t get in Las Vegas?

Oil up/rates up/consumer confidence down obviously not great for housing heading into March.

Let's see if the Nasdaq dip-buyers want to play for more than 30 minutes.

Not sure what it means but silver's selling off:

This picture of David Scott qualifying for reelection…

Can't have any confidence that we're past the market-moving supply shocks.