Conor Sen

what's going on guys

*BLACKROCK’S $26 BILLION PRIVATE CREDIT FUND LIMITS WITHDRAWALS

Time for the reflexive dip-buying attempt.

Maybe @peark.es already pointed it out, but while the jobs report was obviously not good, initial jobless claims don't show any kind of deterioration that would suggest -90k/month is the state of the labor market.

Still feels like stocks are more afraid of missing the TACO than of losing money.

With the GFC, Covid, SVB, and Liberation Day, throwing money at the problem or putting out a statement was enough to put out the fires. But energy is molecules and the Fed can’t print molecules.

Needs to be a Kalshi market on this.

Strait of Hormuz is gonna open back up ASAP.

*TRUMP WANTS IRAN'S 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER', RULES OUT DEAL

What a mess.

We just haven't gotten the correlations go to 1 mechanical break yet.

It would be a pretty great time for an EV company with good values to launch a mid-sized SUV, wonder if any company has thought about that for say next week.

If the oil prices on the screens are right, stocks aren't cheap enough, but if somehow oil markets did get fixed in 2-3 weeks it doesn't seem like there would be that much upside in stocks either. Just feels like no man's land.

Energy markets to equity traders:

Retail gasoline prices up another 7c/gallon yesterday:

Glad I’m not an oil trader.

You can't fill up your gas tank with a short futures position.

You think about what a science fiction report on AI did to software stocks, and here we have an actual energy crisis and people are largely shrugging at it.

Bloklahoma is still fun to type out/say.

Gasoline futures are up 60c/gallon on the week and a name like $SBUX is flat.

I'm genuinely stunned at how little consumer discretionary/energy-intensive stocks are down on the week.

NOEM OUT

It doesn't seem like he has the ability to do a unilateral TACO here.

Exclusive | Trump Is Preparing to Fire Kristi Noem The president has already been asking aides and congressional Republicans for names of potential replacements.

Noem is toast.

*ORACLE PLANS THOUSANDS OF JOB CUTS AS DATA CENTER COSTS RISE

Reason to think this energy crisis won't resolve soon.

With oil still grinding higher, feels like the risk/reward on stocks is up 2-3% vs down ???

@ivanthek.bsky.social You do the dog tail-wagging graphic with oil/risk assets yet?

Genuinely think at this point people are ignoring the many indicators of a prolonged military engagement that’s likely with Iran (regional escalation, the entire track record of the 20+ year aftermath of every comparable U.S.-led regime-change operation since 2001).

The market rotating into SaaS 10 days after the Citrini shock because it's worried about the oil impact on the real economy is objectively funny.

I wonder where Atlanta will stack up.

I believe just first mortgages, but not sure.