Conor Sen

Trump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlash Some of the president’s advisers privately encouraged him to look for an exit plan amid spiking oil prices and concerns that a lengthy conflict could spark political backlash.

“Trump has hinted in public, and told aides in private, that he would back the killing of the younger Khamenei if he proves unwilling to cede to U.S. demands, current and former U.S. officials said.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

It helps that in baseball our players are much better than theirs.

It’s cool to finally have a big US-Mexico game in Houston instead of like Provo.

Images in DM’s!

My 2-cent take — he’ll try to jawbone to keep oil below $100, but he won’t deescalate to bring oil below $80 (to the extent he’s really in control here anyway). And the oil floor probably keeps going up while SoH flows are impaired.

I’m not the first to make this observation but it is a bit curious how they did the whole thing about calling it the Department of War but are going out of their way to call this everything except a war.

🤷🏻‍♂️

No need to decide in the next 10 minutes whether this means anything, we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Well here’s the TACO attempt.

Financials are interesting because private credit has been a boom but regional banks have largely been on the sidelines since SVB.

Residential construction and non-investment bank/non-alt asset manager financials are the most interesting names on my watch list.

$LEN at a 3-year low, reports earnings this week.

Case in point just there.

*LESCURE: G-7 NOT THERE YET ON RELEASING OIL STOCKPILES

While Irans use of the energy weapon is probably going to work it will degrade it through the policy response elsewhere: absolutely breakneck decarbonisation. A bit like US sanctions.

I didn’t predict it but it wasn’t totally out of character for him.

This is the first thing he’s done in 5 years that I genuinely, truly didn’t think he do.

They’d probably be too small to matter but wonder if the meme traders who rotated from crypto into gold and silver will rotate into oil.

See @hmeisler.bsky.social’s pinned tweet:

Even if the actual barrels at risk isn’t the full 20mn b/d due to various pipeline and re-routing capabilities, the number is still bigger than anything we’ve seen.

Also, Iran is stil sending drones to attack oil fields and refineries everyday.

There is no positive case until this ends.

I feel like people are in shock at these opening prices and haven’t really processed them.

Err make that 25c cc: @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social

Gasoline futures open up ~15c/gallon

Yep!

*WTI OIL RISES ABOVE $100/BARREL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2022

Funny you should ask, @conorsen.bsky.social and I were having this conversation.

#eyetwitches

Until it opens for real I can’t say with certainty, but COSM Atlanta looks really cool. Between IMAX, COSM, and the Sphere it feels like 3 makes a trend — maybe the Regal/AMC numbers never return to pre-COVID levels but there’s clearly something going on with an elevated “movie theater” experience.

Yep — we’re fortunate to live near an international/Asian corridor and the stores there are all over whatever the latest trend is.