bird facts

With today’s Essential likely being the last poll we’ll get before Christmas, I’ve done a regression model of this year’s data. Not much happened until the last two months.

Local cubic regression estimate is LNP 39.3 (+3.6), ALP 28.9 (-3.7), GRN 13.5 (+1.3), with +/- since 2022.

New Resolve poll from The Age/SMH reporting a new record low primary vote for Labor.

ALP 27 (-3)
LNP 38 (-1)
GRN 12 (+1)
ON 7 (+2)
OTH 16 (+1)

(Some weirdness with the region/gender breakdowns, which seem to suggest GRN 13 and are incompatible with GRN 12 even with rounding).

However that 2PP is *very* generous for Labor on those PVs, for which I get a 52.3-47.7 2PP using previous election prefs.

That knocks another 7 seats off Labor and puts them firmly into minority regardless of the decision of the Libs (who could plausibly win a tiny majority).

Published 2PP is 51-49 in favour of the LNP.

On a uniform swing, Labor loses 12 seats (8 to the Libs and 4 to the Greens) and ends up in minority (albeit only by one seat).

That requires the Libs repeating their 2022 decision to put Labor last however, which seems unlikely.

New VIC State election poll from Redbridge (@kossamaras.bsky.social’s firm) ALP 30 (-7) LNP 43 (+9) GRN 14 (+3) OTH 13 (-5) (+/- since last election)

Labor would probably end up with more seats than the LNP (the seat map in VIC is dire for them) but may need the Greens to form government.

Labor’s attempt to bring on all of their legislation for a vote today was just defeated 33-34.

David Pocock followed through on his threat to vote against the government unless Labor reversed their decision to scrap their deal with the Greens to pass environmental legislation.

Checking in on how things are going for Labor relying on the Coalition to get their legislation through the Senate

Albanese intervenes to scupper Plibersek’s negotiations with the Greens Tanya Plibersek’s negotiations with the Greens over a major environmental reform were close to bearing fruit. But the prime minister halted talks.

A deal between Labor and the Greens to pass legislation has been scrapped after a personal intervention by Albanese.

If Labor loses their majority at the next election (as current polling suggests is likely), a change in leadership might look tempting.

www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...

The only viable path to Ananda-Rajah getting elected is with a 4-2 left/right split in the VIC senate results (ALP 3, LNP 2, GRN 1).

Labor would need to be winning the nationwide 2PP by something like 54-46 for that to happen, and they’re currently losing the 2PP in most polls.

Michelle Ananda-Rajah, the Labor MP for the abolished seat of Higgins, will run for the Senate in the third spot on the party’s ticket according to reports this morning.

Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.

This is also the third poll in a row now to report Greens support going up in contrast to Resolve (SMH/The Age) who found a 1 point drop in their vote in their latest poll.

A good reminder not to base multiple days of editorialising on a margin-of-error movement in one poll.

New Essential poll this morning has LNP 35 (+1), ALP 30 (-1), GRN 13 (+1), and OTH 16 (-2), with 6% undecided.

2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.

Dutton best suited to handle Trump, Labor still facing minority: poll The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy polling shows the Albanese government remains behind the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.

New Freshwater poll in the AFR puts gov firmly into minority territory.

LNP 40 (-1)
ALP 30 (n.c)
GRN 14 (+1)
OTH 16 (n.c)

LNP lead 51-49 on a 2PP basis, but Labor probably in a better position to form government (with GRN/IND) on a uniform swing.

www.afr.com/politics/fed...

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