Hugh Lovatt

Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics | ECFR Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab stat

✍️ Squeezed by a brutal occupation, the dysfunctionality of the PA and the broader political system is apparent to all and each want a different fix. What is often ignored in this is what Palestinians want. @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/publication/...

Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…

Political renewal is needed to argue Palestinian positions internationally, build consensus and apply pressure on actors that deviate from this. Until Palestinians have legitimate institutions that speak for them, some will be driven to violence to make themselves heard. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Backed by far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the settler movement seeks to incorporate the West Bank, Gaza and, at its most extreme interpretation, parts of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, into Israel.
ecfr.eu/publication/...

Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…

Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social

The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence.

A very interesting new @ecfr.eu report about countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by @willbrownecfr.bsky.social. I am glad to see that the report really underlines one of my recent pet peeves: The need to go on the offensive on cyber.+

Western Sahara shuffle: Trump’s foray could make or break peace | ECFR President Donald Trump’s quest for a peace prize has led him to Western Sahara, where American diplomacy risks either sparking more violence or seizing a rare c

✍️ Europeans should capitalise on the Polisario’s willingness to engage in renewed negotiations that would preserve the current economic interests of Morocco relating to Western Sahara’s natural resources, writes @hlovatt.bsky.social buff.ly/9ducliL

Tweet by Taha Hadeed (@t-hadeed.bsky.social) on X listing cargo flights between UAE and Libya during October 2025

Part of the background to the fall of El Fasher and RSF atrocities there is the sustained airlift from the UAE to the RSF via Libya - sixty Il-76 flights during October alone.

For the past six months, Haftar-controlled eastern Libya has supplanted Chad as the RSF's most important supply route.

'Europeans, driven by fear of uncertainty, tend to support the authoritarian leadership of Abbas and the illusion of stability. Yet, Palestinian politics is dysfunctional and many Palestinians desire a new kind of leadership that moves beyond the entrenched Hamas–Fatah divide'

The Future of Palestinian Governance The events of the past two years represent one of the darkest pages of the history not only of Israel-Palestine, but of the entire Mediterranean region. In Gaza, where more than 60,000 lives have been...

Pleasure to be at ISPI's MED Dialogues on a panel moderated by @martinkonecny.bsky.social talking about the future of Palestinian governance with Obada Shtaya and Hiba Husseini

Watch what we had to say 👇

events.ispionline.it/the-future-o...

New @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social:

"The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight, but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to the logic of perpetual war."

t.co/LPBLj4qNV8

Meanwhile, Polisario is also warning against US draft UNSCR (to be voted next week) that would try to impose Moroccan autonomy as the only option.

Were it to pass, Polisario says it "will not engage in any political process or negotiations based on the content of the draft resolution."

'Free Association provides a useful framework for fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination. As existing practices show, there is a degree of variance in how free association can be applied. This provides some latitude in devising a final peace agreement with Morocco.'

Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination…

In @ecfr.eu's 2021 report "Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara", Jacob Mundy & I advocated for Free Association - a realistic third way for Western Sahara between independence & inclusion/autonomy in Morocco

Polisario now showing interest.

ecfr.eu/publication/...

W. Sahara's Polisario Would Accept Morocco Autonomy Plan If Backed By Referendum: FM Western Sahara's pro-independence movement the Polisario Front said Thursday it would accept an autonomy plan proposed by Morocco, so long as it was validated in a referendum that included independenc...

More Polisario movement

Real news is not it accepting Moroccan autonomy if voted in referendum (an old position) but its potential shift towards negotiating a free association arrangement for Western Sahara "which could resemble what Morocco proposes"

barrons.com/news/w-sahar...

.@ecfr.eu has consistently called for an EU-negotiated trade liberalisation and fishery partnership agreement between Morocco and Polisario that could lay the economic foundations for a future WS peace agreement. Now is the chance!

Significantly, Polisario is now willing to negotiate with the EU "to reach mutually acceptable provisional arrangements that would preserve the current economic interests of the Kingdom of Morocco and any other third parties relating to the natural resources of Western Sahara."

Having read the full 10 page proposal --this is a serious, realistic and good faith shift by the Polisario. There is a lot to work with and the UN, Europe and US should welcome.

Most critically, while a final Polisario-Morocco agreement is still far, it provides the key to unlock direct talks.

"The Polisario does not need to abandon its dream of Sahrawi self-determination...But it does need to rethink how self-determination can best be achieved given the current geopolitical realities....There may also be a potential deal to be struck between the US and Algeria to support this..."

Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...

Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza.

European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza, write @hlovatt.bsky.social @jbdacey.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42YPEqn

Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its reg...

European governments need to recognise the destabilising effects of ever-escalating Israeli actions on European interests. Europe must do much more, write @jbdacey.bsky.social @hlovatt.bsky.social and Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3IhltUe

Netanyahu: Boycotts will force Israeli economy to become self-reliant PM’s declaration comes as European nations harden their attitude to country over its war in Gaza

📰 “A far more significant shift is happening among long-standing supporters of Israel, predominantly on the political Right, who are also becoming increasingly critical." comments @hlovatt.bsky.social for @telegraphnews.bsky.social. For more 👇 buff.ly/vAddSsv

Byron Rogers, brilliant Telegraph journalist and author who was Prince Charles’s first speechwriter A connoisseur of the offbeat, he interviewed the last human cannonball and wrote a superb biography of the eccentric poet RS Thomas

Wonderful @telegraphnews.bsky.social obituary of my (soon to be) father-in-law Byron Rogers, Welsh writer & journalist.
"His interviewees included Helen Mirren – whose convivial boyfriend, Liam Neeson, got him so drunk that he fell off his bicycle on the way home"
www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2...

Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.

New for @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social:
Hamas is battered but unbroken. The group is now quietly opening up to decommissioning. European leaders, long sidelined in the diplomatic arena, now have a real chance to help chart a new course away from perpetual war. ecfr.eu/article/deco...

It is vital that EU pressure is maintained on Israel to uphold and expand its humanitarian commitments, while pressing it to agree to a permanent ceasefire deal and end its all IHL/IHRL violations in Gaza and the West Bank. --> This requires the EU to move forward with sanctions.

Getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, preferably in a ceasefire context, is a priority. But this should not mean total absolution for doing only the bare minimum even as Israel continues to kill civilians, destroy Gaza, & expand WB settlements (incl E1) in violation of EU redlines.

Undoubtedly strong supporters of Israel such as Germany, Italy etc will point to Israel's reported acceptance of increased aid deliveries to Gaza as vindication of their preference for engagement -- BUT -- this has been show to work only if backed-up with the threat of sanctions.

A few thoughts ahead of tomorrow's EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting to discuss possible restrictive measures against Israel, including suspension of preferential trade tariffs and Horizon Europe, arms embargo and a settlement trade ban...
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34. Right to life (ICCPR Art. 6)
35. Right to prompt judicial review (ICCPR Art. 9(3)–(4))
36. Right to self-determination (ICCPR and ICESCR Art. 1)
37. Right to work (ICESCR Art. 6)
38. Duty to investigate alleged acts of torture / right to complain (CAT Art. 12 and 13)

30. Right to health and contact with the outside world (ICCPR Art. 10)
31. Right to highest standards of health (ICESCR Art. 12)
32. Right to liberty and security of person (ICCPR Art. 9)
33. Right to liberty of movement and freedom to choose one’s residence (ICCPR Art. 12)