Giuseppe Spatafora

🛡️ From securing supply chains and defence ties to fighting transnational organised crime, the EU, Latin America & the Caribbean face common security challenges.

🤝 Ahead of the 2025 #EUCELAC Summit, we held an event to level up the security dimension in cross-regional relations.

Deep Strikes are Hurting Putin & Russia: The Big Five 5 October edition My regular update on global conflict. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads.

My regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict is now available. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...

Fighter jets are too costly against cheap #drones and Europe can’t rely on the US, which is also new to this game. @gspataf95.bsky.social in the Washington Post on the EU's planned "drone wall". www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

“The other side can just keep throwing things at you,”... “There’s only a certain number of fighter jets, each of them carries a certain amount of munitions, which tends to be quite high-tech and expensive. You cannot expend them easily.”

👉“Although NATO has the top-level defense capabilities,” Spatafora added, “they are not enough to deal with cheap drones that can be sent in droves and make a lot of damage.”

👉“The U.S. is sort of new to this game as well,” Spatafora said. “So the Europeans, basically they cannot just rely on U.S. capabilities. It’s new for everyone.”

As Russia menaces NATO skies, E.U. plans to build a shield against drones E.U. leaders say they want to build a “drone wall” along the borders with Russia and Ukraine after incursions into NATO airspace have raised alarm.

A little present this morning: being quoted on the @washingtonpost.com article on Europe's drone wall plan: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Denmark drone incidents expose European airspace vulnerabilities Job of protecting critical national infrastructure grows more complex as Russia tests Nato members

Glad for the conversation I had with @benhallnews.bsky.social @financialtimes.com in preparation for their article on European airspace vulnerabilities and Russia's growing boldness.
Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...

Prepare for possible US troop drawdown in Europe, Estonia says President Alar Karis warns that all European countries should be prepared for Russian provocations.

European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told us.

Previewing the latest @euiss.bsky.social research at #EUISS2025 Annual Conference

EUISS 2025 annual conference: Kaja Kallas keynote speech YouTube video by EU Institute for Security Studies

Follow the discussion: www.youtube.com/live/6AKxO0z...

#EUISS2025 Annual Conference under way, with HRVP @kajakallas.bsky.social & @sbeverts.bsky.social

Where do we stand after the Alaska and Washington Summits? After the high-stakes Alaska and Washington summits, Europe has managed to hold the line, buying time and keeping Ukraine at the centre of transatlantic diplomacy. Yet, Trump’s commitment remains a do...

This week has seen a whirlwind of diplomatic summits, full of drama and controversy but not much clarity.

If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts:

#EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump

Europe is sending heavy hitters to Washington alongside Ukraine’s president to bolster Kyiv European leaders are on an all-out push to forestall Oval Office conflict at a crucial stage in diplomacy to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.

“In general, the Europeans talk much more often to Trump than during the first 100 days, which is good. They have influence. But it’s limited,” says @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Yesterday, I was interviewed by @france24.com for "Around the World" on the phone call between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. We touched upon EU attempts to influence Trump, the risks of the meeting, Putin's intentions, and the real obstacles to a ceasefire.

How NATO is using creative accounting to meet Trump's spending demands In the Trump-brokered agreement for NATO to increase its defense spending, 'defense-related' projects take on a new definition.

A fundamental question this article raises is whether Trump & Co. care about NATO allies who use "creative accounting" or whether they are going to look the other way and declare victory.

www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...

Graph showing the 'snail pace' of R&D in the EU compared to US R&D. While overall defence spending among EU Member States has gone up, investment in defence R&D is not keeping pace with procurement.

💡 The EU can address both its security & competitiveness crises with a new tool: increased defence budgets.

Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...

Maybe that's the point...pressure on spending 5% quickly will lead to pressure to buy off the shelf american...

Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting

While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.

My rant in the @financialtimes.com

Absolutely yes. And the keyword here is "strategic": it's not smart to give yourself the means without the ends, and Europeans are clearly failing in defining the ends.

OPINION - Eurofighter Typhoon agreement: Türkiye, Europe, and the future of defense cooperation Turkish army, the 2nd-largest force in NATO, appears a natural substitute for decreased US presence in Europe. Türkiye’s role in patrolling the Black Sea, protecting NATO’s southern flank, and reachin...

Glad to be back on @anadoluajansicom.bsky.social to discuss the Turkish acquisition of Eurofighter Typhoons: is it a step forward in defence integration w. Europe? Pragmatism wins, but structural issues remain. @euiss.bsky.social www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/op...

Short reading x the summer break: Europe should be ready for the US NDS & force posture review - coming up in late summer/fall. We should hope for the best but prepare for the worst. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:

Inside Trump's Frantic, Failing Mission to Crush the Epstein 'MAGA Rebellion' President Donald Trump and his administration are doing everything they can to make MAGA forget about Jeffrey Epstein. They are failing.

NEW: “They won’t shut the fuck up about it,” Trump privately vented — referring to conservative influencers and media types lashing out over the Epstein memo — according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

Vipin and I welcome Austin Long to the show (and MIT CNSP) Austin Long joins us to discuss damage limitation (shocking, I know), arms races and arms control, the recent UK-France Northwood Declaration, and more

1. This is a very rich podcast discussion between Vipin Narang, Pranay Vaddi & Austin Long (who did nuclear policy on the joint staff until recently). Covers UK-France nuclear co-op but most interesting bits are on the US policy of 'damage limitation' strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/vipin-and-...

Rutte really deserves an award for his handling of Trump.
Yes, this may not stick and Trump is at the same time seeking to weaken Europe with tariffs.
But on security this is the best day for Europe during Trump's time in the White House.

Lastly, if Bridge Colby is going to halt Patriot deliveries because of low US stockpiles - a real concern. The Pentagon should then tell Europeans to ramp up production of European systems. They aren't conveying that. Instead, State is sticking to its same old buy-American talking points.

this is overall a suboptimal outcome for European defense. In a high-end attritional war, Europe would want its own production capacity even if its system wasn't quite as good. But it won't get better w/o orders. More orders, more capital, more innovation. As SAMP-T is used it w/d get better.

Glad to be on @france24.com "The Debate" last night with @francoisf24.bsky.social & other excellent guests to discuss "Deterrence made in Europe", the 🇬🇧-🇫🇷 summit, the Ukraine Recovery Conference, and the latest developments in the White House regarding Ukraine. Link below:

🌐 The US is not the only force driving the current aid crisis. European governments and institutions are cutting development assistance, too. Who will fill the void?

Find out more in our latest Munich Security Analysis: securityconference.org/en/publicati...