Dr Maria Shagina

Excited to share my latest piece on American state capitalism and critical-mineral diplomacy, which now runs on three tracks:

🏈 “America First” deals;
🤝 Bilateral agreements;
🌍 Pax Silica, a coalition-of-capabilities framework.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

My final publication of the year is on supply-chain resilience as the backbone of economic security.

Without resilient supply chains, no economic security, and thus no national security.

The US' growing intervention in corporate America signals a shift towards a more state-influenced capitalism–one that blends market power with political leverage, which resembles the 🇷🇺 model, where firms share profits in exchange for market access or protection. My take
www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Why the EU won't hit China with the 100% tariffs that Trump wants Donald Trump's request for 100% tariffs on China is unlikely to gather the necessary support among European Union countries. #EuropeNews

No, the EU won't impose 100% tariffs on China overnight as Donald Trump has demanded.

Here's why.

The recent US-China tit-for-tat over chip-design software and rare earths raises key strategic questions. Which export controls are non-negotiable and which can be used as leverage? How do US and Chinese strategic leverage compare? And how are chokepoints evolving?
www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Since 2019, China has been modernising its economic statecraft, beefing up one economic tool in particular – export controls. China’s recent use of export controls demonstrates the evolution of Beijing’s economic statecraft.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Druck auf Putin: Haben die Sanktionen Russland geschadet? Seit dem Angriff auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat der Westen mehr als ein Dutzend Sanktionspakete gegen Russland verhängt. Sind Folgen im Land spürbar?

"Druck auf #Putin: Haben die #Sanktionen #Russland geschadet?" Mit einigen Einschätzungen, mit @mshagina.bsky.social und Alexandra Prokopenko. Danke, Sabine Adler
www.deutschlandfunk.de/druck-auf-pu...

China has been modernising its economic statecraft, beefing up one economic tool in particular – export controls. On the latest changes in China's use of export controls from me and my colleagues 👇
www.iiss.org/online-analy...

One rouble to leave - one billion to return. Sounds fair!

Renault's Russia buyback to cost at least $1.3 billion, says Russia's Avtovaz Should French carmaker Renault wish to buy back its majority stake in Russia's top carmaker Avtovaz, it would have to pay at least 112.5 billion roubles ($1.3 billion) to cover investments made since selling for only one rouble in 2022, Avtovaz said.

Consider returning to Russia? Be prepared to pay for it. RU Avtovaz says Renault can buy back its majority stake if it pays $1.3 bn. Another bonanza for the Kremlin and Moscow is ready to leverage it: stricter demands for localization and tech transfers à la China.
www.reuters.com/business/aut...

‘The U.S. came to the peace talks unarmed’ Sanctions expert Maria Shagina explains how the West can use its main economic weapon in negotiations with Russia — Meduza The U.S. and its allies have levied more than 20,000 sanctions against Russia in the three years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Though they’ve failed to stop the Kremlin’s…

How do sanctions give Washington leverage in negotiations with Moscow? And what can Europe and Ukraine do if the U.S. eases restrictions? For answers to these and other questions, Meduza spoke to researcher @mshagina.bsky.social.

Russia’s Withering Economy Is a Tricky Place to Do Deals—Even for Trump The country abounds in oil and mineral wealth, but in many cases it is hard to reach and the threat of intervention from the Kremlin casts a long shadow.

On the prospects of Western corporates returning to Russia (spoiler: very low). In great company with @jakluge.de and @edwardfishman.bsky.social
www.wsj.com/world/russia...

EU Seeks Ways to Seize Part of Russia’s Frozen $280 Billion The European Union is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as the bloc scrambles to ensure financial and military support for Ukraine amid indications the US m...

The EU is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as a collateral to compensate for the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Exclusive: Russia could concede $300 billion in frozen assets as part of Ukraine war settlement, sources say Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, three sources told Reuters.

Russia says it could concede $300bn in sovereign assets as part of the peace deal. Further evidence that Moscow wrote off the assets a long time ago, but is happy to leverage them b/c it knows the West thinks Russia cares about them.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...

🎶Tune in to listen to our podcast on Trump's Russia policy, sanctions and the peace deal:
www.iiss.org/podcasts/sou...

I didn't mean it as a bargain. Leveraging = using the powers to seize the assets

US and Russia agree to ‘lay the groundwork’ for ending Ukraine war Negotiations were first high-level talks on the conflict since early months of Vladimir Putin’s invasion

What can give the EU a seat at the table? Sanctions can play a key role here. Brussels and London can leverage their lion's share of Russian sovereign assets.
www.ft.com/content/b427...

Secretary Rubio’s Meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov - United States Department of State The below is attributable to Spokesperson Tammy Bruce: Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today as a follow up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with...

"Lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine." Wtf?
www.state.gov/secretary-ru...

Waltz: the negotiated exchange serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine.

Low-level exchange from Russia. The Q is what concessions the US gave in return.

www.ft.com/content/00d0...

US Attorney General disbands DOJ’s kleptocracy task force, curtails AML and corruption work   - Compliance Corylated US attorney general Pam Bondi disbanded the DOJ Task Force KleptoCapture and refocused the criminal division’s FCPA unit and AML section.

New US attorney general Bondi has disbanded DOJ's Task Force KleptoCapture responsible for enforcing sanctions on Russian oligarchs and refocused the resources to tackle cartels and transnat'l crime organisations. So much for Trump's harsh talk on Russia!
www.compliancecorylated.com/news/us-atto...

Great example, which shows the limitations of a 'smart sanctions' approach: Russia and Turkey used the nuclear project in 2022 to dance around US sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank, with Rosatom and Gazprombank playing the key role.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine peace deal Advocates say reopening pipelines could help settlement with Moscow and cut energy costs

🤦When will Europe learn from its past mistakes? It's Russia who gambled and lost its game of weaponization. Going back to business as usual on energy will not incentivise Russia to come to the negotiating table, but encourage it to double down on its maximalist goals in UA
www.ft.com/content/a19a...

On Trump's madman strategy: "Persuading leaders of foreign governments to yield to a demand, after all, requires not just convincing them that resisting will be punished. It also requires convincing them that yielding will actually prevent punishment."

Russian Oil Ships Hunt for New Flags to Hide From Sanctions A chunk of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under as US and UK sanctions heap pressure on Moscow’s shipping network.

Russia's shadow fleet isn't immune to Western chokepoints: flags of convenience are convenient until the US, UK and EU exert enough pressure on them. Barbados will remove 48 ships b/c of UK sanctions, Panama will delist 68 ships sanctioned by the US.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

3. Entourage: despite Waltz and Rubio's rhetoric to give Ukraine more leverage ahead of negotiations, it's Trump who will define the course. Bessent will support sanctions if Trump tells him so. Kellogg is a fiercely loyal guy whose peace plan will not deviate from where Trump's head is.

2. Sequencing: Trump wants to use sanctions *after* the negotiations with Putin kick off. The trouble is that without sanctions pressure *before* the negotiations Putin doesn't feel the need to negotiate in the first place, let alone to concede to its maximalist objectives on Ukraine.

1. Endgame: Trump isn't interested in ensuring a long-term peace. He wants to "stop the killing" - how it's done doesn't matter to him, as long as he looks strong. Putin isn't interested in a ceasefire, but in redrawing the European map based on Russia's spheres of influence.

Trump tells Putin to reach Ukraine ‘deal’ soon or US will increase sanctions US president says Washington could impose more trade restrictions on Moscow

Despite all the hype, Trump is unlikely to succeed in using sanctions as leverage to bring Russia to the negotiating table. Three reasons why:
www.ft.com/content/64b7...

EU eyes enlisting Belgian king to help safeguard Russia sanctions Royal wartime decree seen as fallback option to keep Russia’s frozen €190bn in EU if Hungary vetoes renewal of sanctions

The EU's finally thinking out of the box: to ensure that Russia sanctions are extended and thus to safeguard the bloc's measures on sovereign assets, Brussels' one fallback option is to utilise a wartime decree from Belgium to block the transfer of assets from the country.
www.ft.com/content/3c99...

Facing a Flurry of U.S. Sanctions, China Prepares to Hit Back With days until Donald Trump is sworn in, China is bracing for a trade war, aiming at industries as diverse as semiconductors, apparel and industrial plastic.

"In the past, Beijing’s responses were measured. But its words and actions are growing sharper, and the targets of its retaliatory blows are widening to include supply chain vulnerabilities, critical minerals and individual companies."
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/17/b...