The Polycrisis

"At present, Europe has no sovereign digital payment system and its entire architecture depends on US service providers"

Roadmap for Euro to become a global reserve currency:
- swap lines
- own payment system
- avoid US stablecoins
- true, common safe asset
- capital markets integration

I agree 100% to the @thepolycrisis.bsky.social take on the oil issue. It’s about oil, but not because of the reasons the oil industry and petrostates rulers wants us to believe.

How to de-risk from America There is no precedent of a dominant power abandoning its primacy, as Trump is doing

Ed Luce's latest column lists examples of "around and without" including Carney's target to cut Canada's US export dependency; finally finalizing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement; UK-India deal... www.ft.com/content/331e...

Polycrisis 2025 | Kate Mackenzie, Lara Merling, Tim Sahay Diplomacy, finance, and extraction in the year ahead

When we wrote a year ago about countries organizing "around and without" the US, we didn't realise the extent to which it was western allies that would be doing this most decisively. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/pol...

“There's a global solar energy revolution happening led by China and it should have been one of the biggest stories of 2025
While the US is committing to a suicide pact with fossil fuels, the rest of the world is leapfrogging into cheap nearly limitless energy”
bsky.app/profile/70sb...

Screenshot of cover art of "Inflation: A guide for users and losers" by Mark Blyth and Nicolo Fraccaroli - cover shows lots of coloured post-it notes with dollar signs, that make up a big arrow pointing upwards/

Mark Blyth, co-author of "Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers" is our holiday book club guest - *today* 3pm EST (9pm CET). You can pre-register here.
us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

A Global Euro | Phenomenal World With the global monetary order on less certain ground, will Europeans seize the opportunity to make the euro a true reserve currency issuer?

The Commission, the Council and finance ministers are MIA, Vallée points out: "The conversation has been left entirely to the ECB, which cannot possibly deal with all the various dimensions of the critical, and urgent, decisions required to make the euro truly global."

Good enough? COP, trade, Mark Blyth inflation book club

Latest edition of our Dispatch email is out, telling you all about our new guest essays; what you might have missed at COP30 on industrial policy & trade; LNG updates; AI thoughts... and:
Mark Blyth inflation bookclub coming up!
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

A Global Euro | Phenomenal World With the global monetary order on less certain ground, will Europeans seize the opportunity to make the euro a true reserve currency issuer?

NEW: In this moment of profound uncertainty over the global monetary order, Europe needs to move swiftly on becoming a truly global currency issuer, writes @shahinvallee.bsky.social www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...

Interesting summary over whether COP30 made much progress "on coalitions of the doing" on climate change. Modest, maybe? A new conversation on green industrialization was something I hadn't picked up on.

COP30 Without the USA | Phenomenal World Ten years after Paris, and with the conspicuous absence of the US, climate cooperation presses onward at COP30 in Belém.

Since their inception in the 1990s, UN climate conferences have aimed to achieve the unanimous consent of more than 190 countries, plus the European Union." But a growing trend in recent years is for countries to unit in smaller groups to set more ambitious targets.

COP30 Without the USA | Phenomenal World Ten years after Paris, and with the conspicuous absence of the US, climate cooperation presses onward at COP30 in Belém.

How bad was it, really? Catherine Osborn, writer of @foreignpolicy.com LatAm newsletter, reflects on COP30 in Brazil. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cop...

2/ At @thepolycrisis.bsky.social , we’ve taken a special interest in the question of how India has been positioning itself in the new world order that has been emerging since 2022.

This thread is on some of those articles and interviews
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...

India in the New Global Order | Shreyas Shende Between hydrocarbon coalitions and the green electric development

Thread on India @thepolycrisis.bsky.social:
"What provides India greater freedom of choice & sovereignty? Locking into hydrocarbon coalitions or doubling down on a green electrostate track?How India chooses will shape the destiny of 1.4Bn citizens—& the world"
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...

War, Climate Crisis and the Economy: Transition Security Project Launch A collaboration between Common Wealth and Climate & Community Institute to investigate the US and UK military industrial complexes.

🚨 HAPPENING SOON!
🎟️ 620+ sign-ups!

Join us to launch Transition Security Project with a panel on the war economy, climate crisis & the geopolitics of the climate transition.

🎙️ @stephensemler.bsky.social @iliasalami.bsky.social @triofrancos.bsky.social
🪑 @lalehkhalili.bsky.social

shorturl.at/njU0q

You can choose to look up—at all that is above. Is "all-of-the-above" energy policy a smokescreen for fossil fuel lock-in? If not, why not?

This is from an anon contributor to a really cool new little newsletter/journal from @advaitarun.bsky.social, Daevan Mangalmurti, and @aasthauprety.bsky.social caravanseraiforum.substack.com

You can choose to look up—at all that is above. Is "all-of-the-above" energy policy a smokescreen for fossil fuel lock-in? If not, why not?

ALL OF THE ABOVE? "There are contexts where building a broad energy portfolio makes sense, such as in research and development of new technologies, where failure is part of the process. But when applied to infrastructure, regulation, and deployment, the lack of prioritization becomes a liability."

Access Denied? The Sino-American Contest for Military Primacy in Asia Abstract. How has the balance of power shifted in maritime East Asia, and what does this change mean for the U.S.-China military competition in the region? We examine these questions by focusing on a ...

"Beijing has launched dozens of new satellites and other sensors to locate US forces & 100s of increasingly accurate missiles—ballistic, cruise,& hypersonic—to strike airfields & ships throughout the region. Washington has countered by improving US missile defenses..."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

China warns EV makers to stop price-cutting to protect the economy Overcapacity and oversupply are causing ‘involution’ and putting growth at risk, manufacturers told

2/ Is the Chinese central govt pushback on involution.
The brutal competitiveness of what @70sbachchan.bsky.social calls the "fitness centre" of Chinese domestic markets has become so intense that companies are cutting prices below costs. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

EU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies New requirements will apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors

So here are the actual things that I was looking for:
1/ Total reversal of the old "China steals western IP" story. Now it is China with the tech and know-how. Late last year the EU inserted tech transfer provision into its Innovation Fund call for EV battery grants www.ft.com/content/f4fd...

And the OBBBA's biggest legacy will be ceding 'energy dominance' to China:

www.nybooks.com/online/2025/...

Tim Sahay of @thepolycrisis.bsky.social has been all over this too:

bsky.app/profile/70sb...

"I write about the 3 Americas: one built on AI speculation, one held together by healthcare, and one running on memes"
Brilliant &brooding piece by @kyla.bsky.social that runs a thread through the american shatterbelt
@katemac.bsky.social & I honored to be quoted!
kyla.substack.com/p/how-ai-hea...

Taco is Dead. Long Live Empanada EMPANDA — Everyone Makes Promises And Never Actually Does Anything? The last two weeks have seen a flurry of Trump tariff deals before the August 1st...

TACO is dead, long live EMPANADA?
*Everyone Makes Promises And Never Actually Does Anything*
Will EU, Japan, and South Korea actually buy lots of additional American weapons, more American LNG, and make hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in America...?
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

Got problems of our own But we're still doing Summer Book Club

Our lowkey Dispatch email is back!
This week: Chip wars, tariff wars, BRICS, green cold war, and international solidarity -- or lack thereof.
Subject line inspired by @flavorflav.bsky.social & Nigeria's foreign minister Tuggar, who's rejecting US threats & demands. buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

BRICS in 2025 | The Polycrisis Nations meet in Brasilia for the 2025 BRICS Summit. China's rise and US chaos shape the opportunities and challenges for the group.

"The postwar geopolitical order rested on three pillars: American hegemony, the fossil-fuel energy system, and an open, multilateral trading order. America has now attacked each pillar at the foundation of its hydrocarbon global order."
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

Polycrisis Dispatch A weekly newsletter about economics, geopolitics, energy, trade, climate change, and development. By Tim Sahay and Kate Mackenzie, the authors of The Polycrisis monthly essay at Phenomenal World.

As well as our big essay-newsletters with @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, we run a (mostly) weekly newsletter. You can subscribe here. It is free of course.
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

Did @theguardian.com ed.s just plagiarize @70sbachchan.bsky.social & @katemac.bsky.social's @thepolycrisis.bsky.social?

"The postwar order stood on three pillars: US dominance, hydrocarbons and open trade. Today, all three are cracking..."

Don't settle for cheap knock-offs from sunsetting empires.

Heavy Metals Music Zamrock emerged from the optimism of postindependence Zambia, fusing psychedelic rock with nationalist ambition. Its rise and fall mirror the promise — and the exhaustion — of a country built on coppe...

I should mention that @thepolycrisis.bsky.social has been all over this narrative, esp @70sbachchan.bsky.social. And it's everywhere you look... even the past jacobin.com/2025/06/heav...

“For the first time in two centuries, the West is no longer the leader in future technology, but the follower"
NEW: @katemac.bsky.social and I @phenomenalworld.bsky.social write about what China's tech acceleration means for the world. Subscribe & read here: www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

New @thepolycrisis.bsky.social essay alert: China has made advances in green energy, manufacturing, and non-dollar trade. But for BRICS, moving away from the entrenched King dollar in trade & finance still remains the biggest challenge.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...