The Polycrisis

2/ At @thepolycrisis.bsky.social , we’ve taken a special interest in the question of how India has been positioning itself in the new world order that has been emerging since 2022.

This thread is on some of those articles and interviews
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...

India in the New Global Order | Shreyas Shende Between hydrocarbon coalitions and the green electric development

Thread on India @thepolycrisis.bsky.social:
"What provides India greater freedom of choice & sovereignty? Locking into hydrocarbon coalitions or doubling down on a green electrostate track?How India chooses will shape the destiny of 1.4Bn citizens—& the world"
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...

War, Climate Crisis and the Economy: Transition Security Project Launch A collaboration between Common Wealth and Climate & Community Institute to investigate the US and UK military industrial complexes.

🚨 HAPPENING SOON!
🎟️ 620+ sign-ups!

Join us to launch Transition Security Project with a panel on the war economy, climate crisis & the geopolitics of the climate transition.

🎙️ @stephensemler.bsky.social @iliasalami.bsky.social @triofrancos.bsky.social
🪑 @lalehkhalili.bsky.social

shorturl.at/njU0q

You can choose to look up—at all that is above. Is "all-of-the-above" energy policy a smokescreen for fossil fuel lock-in? If not, why not?

This is from an anon contributor to a really cool new little newsletter/journal from @advaitarun.bsky.social, Daevan Mangalmurti, and @aasthauprety.bsky.social caravanseraiforum.substack.com

You can choose to look up—at all that is above. Is "all-of-the-above" energy policy a smokescreen for fossil fuel lock-in? If not, why not?

ALL OF THE ABOVE? "There are contexts where building a broad energy portfolio makes sense, such as in research and development of new technologies, where failure is part of the process. But when applied to infrastructure, regulation, and deployment, the lack of prioritization becomes a liability."

Access Denied? The Sino-American Contest for Military Primacy in Asia Abstract. How has the balance of power shifted in maritime East Asia, and what does this change mean for the U.S.-China military competition in the region? We examine these questions by focusing on a ...

"Beijing has launched dozens of new satellites and other sensors to locate US forces & 100s of increasingly accurate missiles—ballistic, cruise,& hypersonic—to strike airfields & ships throughout the region. Washington has countered by improving US missile defenses..."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

China warns EV makers to stop price-cutting to protect the economy Overcapacity and oversupply are causing ‘involution’ and putting growth at risk, manufacturers told

2/ Is the Chinese central govt pushback on involution.
The brutal competitiveness of what @70sbachchan.bsky.social calls the "fitness centre" of Chinese domestic markets has become so intense that companies are cutting prices below costs. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

EU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies New requirements will apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors

So here are the actual things that I was looking for:
1/ Total reversal of the old "China steals western IP" story. Now it is China with the tech and know-how. Late last year the EU inserted tech transfer provision into its Innovation Fund call for EV battery grants www.ft.com/content/f4fd...

And the OBBBA's biggest legacy will be ceding 'energy dominance' to China:

www.nybooks.com/online/2025/...

Tim Sahay of @thepolycrisis.bsky.social has been all over this too:

bsky.app/profile/70sb...

"I write about the 3 Americas: one built on AI speculation, one held together by healthcare, and one running on memes"
Brilliant &brooding piece by @kyla.bsky.social that runs a thread through the american shatterbelt
@katemac.bsky.social & I honored to be quoted!
kyla.substack.com/p/how-ai-hea...

Taco is Dead. Long Live Empanada EMPANDA — Everyone Makes Promises And Never Actually Does Anything? The last two weeks have seen a flurry of Trump tariff deals before the August 1st...

TACO is dead, long live EMPANADA?
*Everyone Makes Promises And Never Actually Does Anything*
Will EU, Japan, and South Korea actually buy lots of additional American weapons, more American LNG, and make hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in America...?
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

Got problems of our own But we're still doing Summer Book Club

Our lowkey Dispatch email is back!
This week: Chip wars, tariff wars, BRICS, green cold war, and international solidarity -- or lack thereof.
Subject line inspired by @flavorflav.bsky.social & Nigeria's foreign minister Tuggar, who's rejecting US threats & demands. buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

BRICS in 2025 | The Polycrisis Nations meet in Brasilia for the 2025 BRICS Summit. China's rise and US chaos shape the opportunities and challenges for the group.

"The postwar geopolitical order rested on three pillars: American hegemony, the fossil-fuel energy system, and an open, multilateral trading order. America has now attacked each pillar at the foundation of its hydrocarbon global order."
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

Polycrisis Dispatch A weekly newsletter about economics, geopolitics, energy, trade, climate change, and development. By Tim Sahay and Kate Mackenzie, the authors of The Polycrisis monthly essay at Phenomenal World.

As well as our big essay-newsletters with @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, we run a (mostly) weekly newsletter. You can subscribe here. It is free of course.
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

Did @theguardian.com ed.s just plagiarize @70sbachchan.bsky.social & @katemac.bsky.social's @thepolycrisis.bsky.social?

"The postwar order stood on three pillars: US dominance, hydrocarbons and open trade. Today, all three are cracking..."

Don't settle for cheap knock-offs from sunsetting empires.

Heavy Metals Music Zamrock emerged from the optimism of postindependence Zambia, fusing psychedelic rock with nationalist ambition. Its rise and fall mirror the promise — and the exhaustion — of a country built on coppe...

I should mention that @thepolycrisis.bsky.social has been all over this narrative, esp @70sbachchan.bsky.social. And it's everywhere you look... even the past jacobin.com/2025/06/heav...

“For the first time in two centuries, the West is no longer the leader in future technology, but the follower"
NEW: @katemac.bsky.social and I @phenomenalworld.bsky.social write about what China's tech acceleration means for the world. Subscribe & read here: www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

New @thepolycrisis.bsky.social essay alert: China has made advances in green energy, manufacturing, and non-dollar trade. But for BRICS, moving away from the entrenched King dollar in trade & finance still remains the biggest challenge.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

New dispatch alert: #China has made advances in green #energy, manufacturing, and non-dollar trade. But for BRICS, moving away from the #dollar in #trade & finance still remains the biggest challenge.

More in our latest edition of The Polycrisis⤵️
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

China is building 74% of all current solar and wind projects, report says Beijing is dominating construction of renewable energy sources, according to Global Energy Monitor

In an effort to win this contest, China is building hegemony by exporting not just its green products but also in a structural shift exporting its technology, engineering, supply chains, and financing.
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
www.ft.com/content/e517...

New dispatch alert: BRICS export ties with the #US have weakened since 2000, except for #India.
While others pulled back, India’s exports to the US have quietly grown.

More on this in our latest edition.⤵️
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

BRICS in 2025 | The Polycrisis Nations meet in Brasilia for the 2025 BRICS Summit. China's rise and US chaos shape the opportunities and challenges for the group.

China has made major gains in green #energy, manufacturing, and non-dollar trade.
But for BRICS, breaking from the #dollar in #trade and finance remains a challenge.

For more, have a read of our latest newsletter 👇
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

BRICS in 2025 | The Polycrisis Nations meet in Brasilia for the 2025 BRICS Summit. China's rise and US chaos shape the opportunities and challenges for the group.

Our new BRICS post is out, as the annual summit begins today.
What even *is* this expanding group of middle income countries with different agendas?
Not an anti-western effort, or even an anti-dollar one.
We start with China's technological revolution.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

Why the Rest of the World Can’t Just Work Around U.S. Climate Policy We’re too enmeshed in the global financial system for decarbonization to work without us.

“While Republicans attempt to shut down America’s entire scientific research apparatus, the rest of the world moves on. The demise of the IRA would decisively surrender the global market for all types of commercialized clean energy sources (and nuclear energy) to China.” @advaitarun.bsky.social

Minerals stockpiles, 'geoeconomics' and debt Hello readers! This week we look at stockpiling minerals as a security and transition strategy; “geoeconomics” [scare quotes: correct]; and how to evaluate...

This week: Who is and isn't stockpiling critical minerals, and everything you wanted to know about "geoeconomics" but were afraid had already been covered by political scientists and political economists.
(It has, but now economists have modelled it, and it's fine.)
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

Love this recommendation; good company to be in!

LAUNCHING…. The first issue of our new journal – now available to pre-order on The BREAK—DOWN website 👇

linktr.ee/breakdownradio

Uncertainty Hello! Our recent preoccupation with LNG has been realised in a new Polycrisis / Phenomenal World essay. This fuel has the allure of versatility and...

Our latest @thepolycrisis.bsky.social Dispatch is out (actually was out a couple of days ago). In it we muse on LNG - of course - and
u n c e r t a i n t y
Also, leopards eating faces of US O&G sector. buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

Global Conjuncture w/ Ilias Alami and Tim Sahay Podcast-Folge · The Dig · 19.03.2025 · 1 Std. 52 Min.

Two of the smartest people I know (@iliasalami.bsky.social & @70sbachchan.bsky.social) take a deep dive - and provide indispensable context and analysis- into the contemporary mess, in this latest not-to-be-missed episode of @thedigradio.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/t...

Energia em transição no Brasil | Entrevista com Gilberto Cervinski Estrutura do setor elétrico brasileiro e desafios para uma transição climática justa e popular

"Brazil perhaps has the best conditions in the world for renewable energy. When we talk about changing the energy matrix, it’s not about changing the source of electricity, but about energy policy."

Now in EN, PW's Hugo Fanton interviews MAB leader Gilberto Cervinski