Casey Michel

Pre-order UNITED STATES OF OLIGARCHY here: us.macmillan.com/books/978125...

In order to have a sphere of influence, you have to have both a "sphere" and actual "influence"—which Russia is losing by the day.

Russia's pretensions at great power status are obviously ridiculous.

But at some point—given that Moscow is now a vassal state for China, that its influence in the Caucasus and Europe has collapsed, etc etc—you have to wonder if it's fair to still call Russia even a *regional* power.

Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

"Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East" www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Maybe there was a deal to be had. Maybe there wasn't. But when your lead negotiator is taking billions from the regime's bitter rivals, negotiations are poisoned from the start.

(And this isn't even getting into all that Kushner has done to aid Israeli imperialism!)

Jared Kushner has loathed Iran for years, has taken billions from the Saudis, and hundreds of millions more from the UAE. (He and MBZ first bonded over mutual hatred of Iran!)

Why anyone is taking Kushner's claims that there was no deal to be found with the Iranians at face value is beyond me.

Benno Weiner, a historian of modern China, Tibet and Inner Asia at Carnegie Mellon University:
“such policies, if enforced, meant there was ‘no way’ that non-Han people would be able to safely express ‘any type of discontent without being accused of being essentially separatists or terrorists’.”

There's plenty to regret about the US's policy toward Russia in the 1990s, but it's boggling in hindsight how little the US cared about Russia's occupation of a chunk of Moldova, for years and years—and ignored what that might tell us about Russian revanchism.

Chisinau Pressures Tiraspol, 34 Years Since the Transnistrian War and Other Updates Weekly Roundup: March 3, 2026

"We need to call things by their proper names. In war, the aggressor is the one who attacks. In 1992, the aggressor [in the Transnistria War] was Russia."

www.moldovamatters.md/p/chisinau-p...

FWIW, there's also zero indication the Obama administration ever thought about Ukraine potentially re-arming as a nuclear power after 2014.

Even after telling Ukraine to stand down in Crimea, no indication Obama ever considered the implications of a nuclear power invading a non-nuclear neighbor.

Russia Sees War in Iran Squeezing Vital Air Defenses for Ukraine Russia is dismayed by US and Israeli attacks on Iran but mostly powerless to aid its ally, and sees potential benefits for President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, according to five people familiar ...

"Russia is dismayed by US and Israeli attacks on Iran but mostly powerless to aid its ally" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Rwanda's dictator posted a video of his trip to the @nba.com's All-Star Game, yukking it up with Adam Silver: www.instagram.com/reel/DU1Vq7Y...

Thanks to Donald Trump, 2025 was a good year … for white-collar criminals | Casey Michel Why would the Trump administration choose to set aside consequences from criminals whose actions threaten the stability of the broader American economy?

Am reminded of something I wrote a few months ago:

"This dynamic not only rewards crime but incentivizes it. How stupid a corporate leader do you have to be to continue complying with rules and regulations that are no longer even enforced?"

www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...

How Washington Is Weaponizing Anticorruption Law The era of neutral enforcement is over.

Great look at how the White House is using America's anti-corruption playbook as statecraft.

"For our corporate enemies? Anti-corruption prosecutions. For our corporate friends? Everything."

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Greenland has been tabled for right now, but all of the ingredients are still there for Trump to revisit threatening Greenland whenever he wants.

This pause is completely reminiscent of the same pause we saw last year, when so many thought Trump wouldn't revisit Greenland.

Wrong then. Wrong now.

What Russia Really Thinks About Trump The U.S. president believes Russia “respects” him, but Kremlin-controlled media have turned him into a joke.

“Russian TV routinely features jokes about how Trump can be manipulated into doing things that clearly damage U.S. interests.”

foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/25/r...

All of the past few days—Trump's belief in the lightning efficacy of American power; Congress rolling over; no real costs whatsoever (yet)—make an American move on Greenland even more inevitable. And on Canada's Arctic.

Has there ever been any indication that Russian leadership (or even Russian analysts) ever discussed Ukraine potentially re-arming as a nuclear power as a result of Russia's invasion?

A dozen years later, I can't say I've ever seen anything to indicate that was ever even a passing thought.

The money behind the new Iran War In private calls over the last several weeks, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged President Trump to attack Iran.

We know Saudi/UAE have splurged on Kushner for years, sending billions to Kushner's fund.

We know that Saudi/UAE both lobbied Trump to attack Iran.

And we know Kushner was the US's lead man supposedly negotiating with Iran.

So much smoke you could choke on it.

popular.info/p/the-money-...

The entire UAE model of presenting itself as some sort of quasi-libertarian utopia for sleazy tax-dodgers and a playground for money launderers while also being a very nasty authoritarian state that exploits slave labour, was literally built on a foundation of sand.

And this is before even considering the partisan dynamics in the UAE. If and when the Democrats retake Congress (or the White House), all eyes will be on just how far the UAE went to bribe its way into Trump's good graces—and even interfere in US politics writ large.

Between the drone attacks on the UAE, the revelations about UAE's involvement in genocide in Sudan, and even the recent fallout with Saudi, it sure seems like the best days of the UAE as some kind of haven—financial, lifestyle, geopolitical, whatever—are clearly behind it.

"I never thought that uprooting to live in a dictatorship involved in inflaming a genocidal civil war and serving as the sanctions-dodging capital of the world would affect *my* life!"

Also strange that there... aren't more comparisons between Putin and Salazar.

Decades-long European dictator of a decrepit regime; obsessions with past glory; refusal to give up colonies (or even see them as colonies); bizarre ideologies to explain away empire (Eurasianism, Lusotropicalism).

We've overestimated Russia for too long The recent anniversary of Russia's expanded invasion, which is now stretching into its fifth year, is as good a time as any to take stock of the state of the war itself. For Ukraine, the fighting rem...

As many casualties as the US had in WWII. An offensive that's moving slower than WWI. An economy that's now in stagflation. And a wild collapse in geopolitical influence.

Call Russia's invasion of Ukraine what it is: the greatest strategic failure we've seen in decades.

Me in @kyivindependent.com:

We've overestimated Russia for too long The recent anniversary of Russia's expanded invasion, which is now stretching into its fifth year, is as good a time as any to take stock of the state of the war itself. For Ukraine, the fighting rem...

"At this point, Russia's ability to ride to the rescue of places like Transnistria or Aleksandr Lukashenko's Belarus is an open question — as is, increasingly, the future stability of the Russian Federation writ large."

kyivindependent.com/weve-overest...

As always, good thread from @profsaunders.bsky.social. @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social talk about how Trump admin hollowed out these processes, why it did so, and what some of the costs are in our recent @foreignaffairs.com article.

Spoiler: a combo of far-right ideology and self-dealing.

Couldn't do anything when Assad fell. Couldn't do anything when Maduro was snatched. Couldn't do anything to prevent Iran being bombed.

Incredible to watch how geopolitically impotent Russia has become, in such a short period of time.

We've overestimated Russia for too long The recent anniversary of Russia's expanded invasion, which is now stretching into its fifth year, is as good a time as any to take stock of the state of the war itself. For Ukraine, the fighting rem...

"Ukraine stands largely independent, largely sovereign, and, perhaps for the first time ever, as the most powerful military on the European continent," writes Casey Michel, Director of the Combating Kleptocracy Program at the Human Rights Foundation, in this op-ed.

Since Putin invaded Ukraine... and views Ukraine as "part of Russia"..... sure seems like he's making a mistake that Napoleon would recognize!