Javier Corrales

Stephen Miran (2024), one of Trump's econ advisors and tariff advocate, warned us. Unless tariffs come in "coordination" with allies and the Fed, expect "adverse" material consequences. Guess what. There is no coordination. Instead, allies are targetted, and the Fed, bypassed. Result: Turmoil

Trump is talking about a third term. Hmm. What do we know about presidents who defy constitutional term limits in Latin America? The typical path: they become dictators (Chávez, Ortega, Bukele, Fujimori). Another path: bring on the chaos (Zelaya, Morales, Fujimori, Lugo).

And just like that, the U.S. is now on Russia's side.

The National Science Foundation: 11% of its staff while.
and
The Federal Aviation Administration: number unknown (makes flying safer).

Dept of Health and Human Services: figure unknown (this includes Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Food and Drug Adm, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

Federal Housing Adm: 40% of staff (the FHA provides mortgage insurance on loans for people who otherwise can't qualify).

Firings this past weekend in the United States:

Massive enough to weaken govt services but too tiny to make a dent on the the national debt (it's like seeking to pay your mortgage with a bake sale).

Opinion | This Is What the Courts Can Do if Trump Defies Them How the escalating measures available to courts would work.

11. Defy the courts when they turn against you. Make sure you have a conflict with the court, so that you can counterattack them en bloc www.nytimes.com/2025/02/16/o...

Donald Trump is plunging government websites into darkness, with profound consequences for American democracy Since Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, his administration has systematically shut down US government websites and deleted information relating to many issues, including diversity initia…

10. Create information blackouts. blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

Trump White House escalates feud with AP, threatens to bar reporters from Air Force One The administration blasted the news organization for “misinformation” over its refusal to refer to the “Gulf of America.”

9. Harass the free press. Create a hierarchy: good press (treat me kindly), full access; bad press, no access. Entangle news organization in legal battles www.politico.com/news/2025/02...

As Trump shakes Justice Department, deeply conservative prosecutors head for exits President Donald Trump's drive to shake up the U.S. government drove out a rising star in conservative legal circles: A career federal prosecutor who once clerked for the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.

8. Replace the rule of law with autocratic legalism, which means: for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law. For autocratic legalism, you need to end the independence of the justice department www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Trump blames Democrats, DEI for deadly plane crash without evidence President Trump said the midair collision over the Potomac River was a dark night in our nation's history during a press conference Thursday before shifting blame without evidence to Democrats as well...

7. Mobilize hate across society. Encouraging people to develop intense hate of some out-group (illegal immigrants, trans folks, ethnic minorities, Hollywood celebrities, elite colleges, dissenters) www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...

At USAID, Waste and Abuse Runs Deep For decades, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been unaccountable to taxpayers as it funnels massive sums of money to the

6. Trash-talk institutions govt dislikes. Create images of institutions as guilty actors, harming agents, without conducting reviews or involving court procedures. Argue that their campaign is intended to save taxpayers' money www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Trump's Attempt to Unilaterally Control State and Local Funding is Dangerous, Dumb, and Undemocratic | ACLU Donald Trump's attempts to withhold vital funding to bully and coerce states into compliance is plainly unconstitutional.

5. Defund institutions as a way to force compliance. www.aclu.org/news/civil-l...

Which agencies have been hit by federal layoffs? What to know about NPS, NIH, IRS, more Over the last week, thousands of federal employees were fired or laid off as part of President Trump's cost-cutting plan.

4. Colonize the federal bureaucracy. Fire the staff. Replace them loyalists. www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...

Trump's 2025 Executive Orders | Holland & Knight

3. Overuse of executive orders, including declaring national emergencies www.hklaw.com/en/general-p...

How Each Senator Has Voted on Trump’s Nominees So Far The Senate has confirmed each of President Trump’s cabinet nominees that faced a vote to this point.

2. Ruling party acts like a rubber stamp. They like his policies and/or fear his retribution. Either way, they never say never. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Trump Suggests No Laws Are Broken if He’s ‘Saving His Country’ President Trump shared a quotation on social media, making it clear it was one he wanted people to absorb: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”

1. President thinks he is saving the country. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/u...

All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.

Donald Trump to halt enforcement of law banning bribery of foreign officials. The mafia is now in charge.

Opinion | Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew, Janet Yellen: DOGE Is a Threat to U.S. Democracy. Former Secretaries Rubin, Summers, Geithner, Lew and Yellen argue that DOGE is a threat to America.

In Argentina 2007, there were signs of autocratic populism when the government began to intervene economic agencies to manipulate inflation figures, as cover up. Similar type of autocratic creeping in the US now www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/o...

5) Status-quo bias v. Nostalgia bias

4) Money-bros rising v. Tech-fems challenging

3) Right-wing populism v Left-wing populism (hard-line against crime or hard-line against capitalism)

2) Dolphins represent renewal especially if they are women v. Dolphins represent autocracy-washing

1) Incumbent's advantage v. anti-incumbent feeling

Ecuador elections: Noboa narrowly beats González. 2nd round required. The fact that it was a close win is a perfect illustration of key polarizations in LatAm (emphasis on plural).

The Trump Doctrine: for my trade partners, sanctions. For autocrats, let’s make a deal (no worries, we won’t talk human rights).

x.com/marteljr/sta...

Autocracy Rising How Nicolás Maduro reinvented authoritarianism for the twenty-first century Venezuela, which once enjoyed periods of democratically elected governments in the latter half of the twentieth century, has...

I study the rise of autocracy in Ven and Nic. Key reason autocracy went far: bureaucratic capturing. Presidents colonized state agencies. If you were not loyal to the president, as a civil servant you were fired, demoted, defunded. Feels like Trump read my book. www.brookings.edu/books/autocr...