Peter Tillmann

How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Great to see our short note in print

UK interest rates: Bank of England cuts rates to 4% in tight vote Monetary Policy Committee forced into unprecedented second vote after initially failing to reach majority

Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland

www.ft.com/content/236c...

Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic.

Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976.

Mohamed El-Erian: Top-Ökonom fordert Rücktritt von US-Notenbankchef US-Präsident Trump möchte Fed-Chef Jerome Powell absetzen, doch die Wall Street unterstützt den Chefbanker bislang. Mit Mohamed El-Erian verlangt nun ein bekannter Ökonom Powells Rückzug. Er hat wohl ...

Er liefert dem MAGA Lager die Munition. Unverantwortlich.

www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/m...

A normal day in the Oval Office
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)

Could you check the website link, please?

Literally the Russian flag in the post. Two of them

Zum 150sten.

New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Stanley Fischer was incredibly influential

www.ft.com/content/0990...

Foreign tax provision in Trump budget bill spooks Wall Street Legislation would erode the appeal of US financial assets, warn banks and investors

This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies."
www.ft.com/content/b400...

Noch dazu war Weimer früher selber in der FAZ Redaktion.

Absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible from El Erian.

If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence

-25bp #ECB

Its 1970 again

Sentiment falling off a cliff:

Wenn es um den Größen geht, die Matthäus-Passion nicht vergessen

A close-up of a spiral galaxy, seen face-on. Its center glows brightly. From the sides of the galaxy’s core emerge spiral arms which wind through the round disc of the galaxy, filled with shining pink spots where stars are forming and more dark-red dust. Some faint stars can be seen around the galaxy, as well as a particularly bright star in the lower left of the image.

🦑💫This NASA/ESA Hubble image features the spiral galaxy Messier 77, also known as the Squid Galaxy.

It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy!

#HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭

Der Klassikbetrieb als trojanisches Pferd – russische Kulturhegemonie (S01E22) Der Klassikbetrieb als trojanisches Pferd – russische Kulturhegemonie (S01E22)

Dazu auch dieser Podcast:
player.blubrry.com/id/118803381...

Hans-Joachim Frey: Putins Konzertmeister Im Propagandakrieg mit dem Westen benutzt Russland die Kultur als Waffe. Dabei hilft der deutsche Kulturmanager Hans-Joachim Frey. Die Geschichte einer Indienstnahme

Kultur und russische Propaganda:

www.zeit.de/kultur/2025-...

Here's how that compares to this point in Biden's term and Trump's first term:

Going off-piste

HK is in a particularly bad position. Very open economy, yet subject to tariffs on China, and currency tied to the USD.

Genau. "Protection for Sale" reversed.

All major currencies appreciating against USD today 1.5-2.5%

Our cover this week.

Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...

This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +

The US announces big tariffs and the Dollar falls on the day. That could mean: (i) markets don't believe any of this after all the back and forth on tariffs; (ii) markets think this hurts the US more than the rest of the world. I think it's (i), which means USD rises a lot if these tariffs stick.