Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 12pts

➡️ Ref: 30% (-1)
🔴 Lab: 18% (-5) <---‼️
🔵 Con: 18% (+2)
🟢 Grn: 13% (=)
🟠 Lib: 12% (+1)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 364
🟠 Lib: 77
🔴 Lab: 45
🟡 SNP: 44
🔵 Con: 39
🟢 Grn: 38

Poll: @OpiniumResearch, 25-27 Feb (+/- vs 6 Feb)

🗳️ In 2019, Labour won 67% of the vote in Gorton and Denton. The Greens won a mere 2.5% of ballots.

Tonight, the Greens stormed to victory with 41% while Labour crashed to an all-time low of 25%.

Pre-election polls pointed to a Green victory of ~4pts

They ultimately won by exactly 12 percentage points 🟢

Labour were reduced to third place, with their vote cut in half

‼️ BREAKING: Greens WIN Gorton and Denton by-election in a landslide victory

🟢 Grn: 41% (+27)
➡️ Ref: 29% (+15)
🔴 Lab: 25% (-25)
🔵 Con: 2% (-6)
🟠 Lib: 2% (-2)

Green GAIN from Labour (+/- vs GE2024)

‼️First-ever Green win in an MP by-election

🗳️ Gorton and Denton turnout: 47.6% (+0.8)

This is HIGHER than in the 2024 general election!!

🚨 Final estimate for Gorton and Denton:

🟢 Grn: 31% (+18)
➡️ Ref: 28% (+14)
🔴 Lab: 27% (-24)

Green GAIN from Labour (+/- vs GE2024)

I reduce value of poll by 0.5pts for every day that passes since it was conducted. My model, with Workers vote reallocated based on Opinium's crosstabs, gets 50% value

As you can see, all polling evidence points to Green victory. The polls may be wrong! But it is what they say.

My estimate is based on three components:

🟢 Opinium poll (99% weight)
🟢 Omnisis poll (97% weight)
🟢 My model / national trends (50% weight)*

*Includes adjustment for absence of Workers Party candidate as we now have data showing 80% of WPB voters switching to Greens

🚨 Final estimate for Gorton and Denton:

🟢 Grn: 31% (+18)
➡️ Ref: 28% (+14)
🔴 Lab: 27% (-24)
🔵 Con: 6% (-2)
🟠 Lib: 3% (-1)

Green GAIN from Labour (+/- vs GE2024)

🗳️ Holyrood MRP points to SNP **majority**

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
➡️ Ref: 25 (+25)
🔴 Lab: 15 (-7)
🟠 Lib: 8 (+4)
🟢 Grn: 7 (-1)
🔵 Con: 7 (-24)

Source: @stonehaven_uk, Feb 2026 (+/- vs 2021)

🚨 NEW | Gorton + Denton polling:

🟢 Grn: 28% (+15)
🔴 Lab: 28% (-23)
➡️ Ref: 27% (+13)

Source: @opiniumresearch.bsky.social , 16-24 Feb
+/- vs GE2024

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 6pts

➡️ Ref: 24% (=)
🔴 Lab: 18% (-1)
🔵 Con: 18% (=)
🟢 Grn: 17% (=)
🟠 Lib: 14% (+1)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 285
🟠 Lib: 90
🟢 Grn: 68
🔴 Lab: 61
🔵 Con: 58
🟡 SNP: 45

Poll: @YouGov, 23 Feb (+/- vs 16 Feb)

🚨 NEW | Major tactical voting website "Stop the Tories" backs *Greens* in Gorton and Denton.

The campaign says that only Greens can beat Reform, largely because polling data shows that Green voters would NOT tactically vote for Labour in a two-horse race.

(Source: @MVTFWD)

🚨 POLL | Greens LEAD in Gorton and Denton
** Labour drop to distant 3rd **

🟢 Grn: 33% (+19)
➡️ Ref: 29% (+15)
🔴 Lab: 26% (-25)
🔵 Con: 5% (-4)
🟠 Lib: 2% (-1)

Source: Omnisis, 13-19 Feb (+/- vs GE2024)

🚨 BREAKING | **All** remaining Filton 24 defendants have just been found NOT GUILTY of aggravated burglary, the most serious charge they were facing.

This follows 6 being acquitted of the same charge just two weeks ago. They are expected to apply for bail.

(Via @HudaAmmori)

GE2029 POLL | Scottish voting intention:

🟡 SNP: 32% (=)
➡️ Ref: 23% (+2)
🔴 Lab: 17% (=)
🔵 Con: 11% (=)
🟢 Grn: 8% (+1)
🟠 Lib: 7% (-2)

-- Seats --
🟡 SNP: 44
🟠 Lib: 5
➡️ Ref: 3
🔵 Con: 3
🔴 Lab: 2

Poll: @NorstatUKPolls, 10-13 Feb (+/- vs 16 Jan)

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 5pts

➡️ Ref: 24% (-3)
🔴 Lab: 19% (=)
🔵 Con: 18% (=)
🟢 Grn: 17% (+1)
🟠 Lib: 13% (-1)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 278
🟠 Lib: 84
🔴 Lab: 74
🟢 Grn: 65
🔵 Con: 60
🟡 SNP: 44

Poll: @YouGov, 15-16 Feb (+/- vs 9 Feb)

nope, it's baffling, even if all they do is repeat their 2024 result they would win an outright majority because the seats up for election this year are all Labour and last time Hastings voted the Greens won a majority of wards. Cannot imagine why the local party doesn't want a majority but ok

🚨 BREAKING | Labour has DUMPED its plans to cancel 30 local elections after legal challenge by Reform.

Leadership of councils who had requested delays:

🔴 Lab: 20
🔵 Con: 4
🟠 Lib: 2
🟢 Grn: 1 (Hastings)
⚪️ Ind: 1 (Burnley)

(Source: @BBCNews)

🗳️ Poll | Should Britain rejoin the EU?

🟡 Rejoin: 61% (+13)
🔵 Stay out: 39% (-13)

Source: @YouGov, 22-23 Jan (+/- vs 2016 ballot)

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 11pts

➡️ Ref: 30% (+2)
🔵 Con: 19% (-1)
🔴 Lab: 17% (-2)
🟢 Grn: 15% (+2)
🟠 Lib: 14% (-1)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 361
🟠 Lib: 84
🟢 Grn: 54
🔵 Con: 47
🟡 SNP: 44
🔴 Lab: 33

Poll: @TechneUK, 13 Feb (+/- vs 16 Jan)

🚨BREAKING: The High Court has ruled that Labour's proscription of Palestine Action was ILLEGAL and must be quashed. The ban, used to justify detention and torture of protesters, has been ruled illegal.

Proscription remains in place pending an appeal by Labour.

(Source: @FT)

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 10pts

➡️ Ref: 29% (-2)
🔵 Con: 19% (+1)
🟢 Grn: 18% (=)
🔴 Lab: 16% (=)
🟠 Lib: 11% (=)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 354
🟢 Grn: 78
🟠 Lib: 75
🔵 Con: 50
🟡 SNP: 44
🔴 Lab: 15

Poll: @findoutnowUK, 11 Feb (+/- vs 4 Feb)

🚨 NEW | Greens lead with youth (16-25)

🟢 Grn: 34% (+2)
🔴 Lab: 28% (+3)
➡️ Ref: 18% (-2)
🔵 Con: 10% (-1)
🟠 Lib: 8% (-1)

This is a proper weighted poll, not a subsample.

Via @Savanta_UK, Feb 2026 (+/- vs 7 Nov)

🗳️ As Starmer's leadership teeters on the brink, his approval rating falls to an all-time low of -50

✅ Approve: 17%
❌ Disapprove: 67%

(Rolling average of approval polling)

18-24

🗳️ How young women would vote in #GE2029:

🟢 Grn: 44% (+21)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-21)
🟠 Lib: 19% (+3)
🔵 Con: 8% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 5% (-1)

Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan
(+/- vs GE2024)

🗳️ How young men would vote in #GE2029:

🟢 Grn: 30% (+18)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-19)
🟠 Lib: 17% (+1)
🔵 Con: 12% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 12% (=)

Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan (+/- vs GE2024)

🗳️ MRP | Gorton and Denton:

➡️ Ref: 33% (+19)
🟢 Grn: 24% (+10)
🔴 Lab: 20% (-31)
🔵 Con: 10% (+2)
🟠 Lib: 5% (+1)

Via @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 1-8 Dec
(+/- vs GE2024)

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 13pts

➡️ Ref: 31% (+2)
🟢 Grn: 18% (-1)
🔵 Con: 18% (+1)
🔴 Lab: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib: 11% (=)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 370
🟢 Grn: 76
🟠 Lib: 72
🟡 SNP: 46
🔵 Con: 38
🔴 Lab: 14

Poll: @FindOutNowUK, 4 Feb (+/- vs 28 Jan)