Jacob Stokes

How big will China’s nuclear arsenal get? No one knows, but we can game out potential endpoints of Beijing’s buildup.

One of the key questions of the new nuclear age is how big China's nuclear arsenal will ultimately grow. I game out potential endpoints in a new piece. www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/0...

It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington

"The most dangerous occupation in Washington these days is being an expert."

A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...

Chinese state media releases key details about DF-5 nuclear weapons Rare disclosure may signal that the country has ‘far more powerful capabilities it has not shown the world’, according to one analyst.

"it was not clear why the information about the DF-5, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was made public." www.scmp.com/news/china/m...

Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency A contingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment.

I'm delighted to share my newest @cnas.bsky.social report:

Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire

It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...

Russia says Putin will travel to China in August The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.

Russia says Putin will travel to China in August apnews.com/article/russ...

“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs, especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,”
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.

Home - U.S. Senate Daily Press Senate ScheduleThe Senate began a series of two votes at 11:29 a.m. There are two votes at 2:15 p.m. and further votes expected. Senate Hearings & Meetings

By a vote of 67 to 29, the #Senate confirmed David Perdue to be the Ambassador to the People's Republic of China.

Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.

Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.

Donald Trump claims to have received call from Xi Jinping and to have cut ‘200 deals’ on trade Beijing says there are no active talks and Washington should ‘stop creating confusion’

Schrödinger's leaders call between Trump and Xi. Apparently, it happened and didn't happen simultaneously. www.ft.com/content/0192...

Opinion | Pete Hegseth Blunders Into His Forever War (Gift Article) The operation in Yemen has sent the Trump administration into an exorbitant, potentially escalatory spiral.

"Mr. Trump is the latest commander in chief to arrive at the White House with an eye toward China, only to be diverted." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/o...

CNAS Launches New National Security Human Capital Program to Safeguard America’s Warfighting Edge Military personnel, political appointees, and civil servants meet the demands of the National Security Strategy by providing the nation with the…

NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.

www.cnas.org/press/press-...

AI models could help negotiators secure peace deals Some are being developed to help end the war in Ukraine

"To help negotiators work out how...Xi Jinping, might react to a scenario...an AI alter ego, dubbed “Xibot”, is being developed...His team has produced three such AI “advisers” that reason in the distinct styles of George Patton, Genghis Khan and Sun Tzu." www.economist.com/science-and-...

Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China "What the f**k is Elon doing there? Make sure he doesn't go," Trump said.

Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China www.axios.com/2025/04/16/t...

How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance The combative approach marked a hard turn for Beijing, which had tried to avoid a spiraling trade war.

How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance

Extensively reported Reuters piece.

www.reuters.com/markets/how-...

Exclusive | In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks A senior Chinese official linked intrusions to escalating U.S. support for Taiwan.

In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Over 160 Chinese nationals fight for Russia, obtained documents show The documents, obtained by the Kyiv Independent, list the names, personal data, brigades, and ranks of Chinese nationals fighting for Russia.

Not huge numbers, but still interesting and symbolically meaningful (if confirmed).

kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...

Trump tariffs offer opportunity for China In unleashing global tariffs, President Donald Trump has vowed to remake the world to benefit US workers. One beneficiary could be the country he sees as the primary adversary -- China.

I was pleased to share some thoughts with @afpfr.bsky.social on how Trump's tariffs will shape broader US-China relations and Beijing's approach to the rest of the world. www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Quote about universities standing up. "Each act of capitulation makes the next one more likely."

Op-ed text about Harvard and other rich institutions. "If they do not or cannot resist the arbitrary application of government power, who else can?"

Op-ed saying that the resources of rich universities are not there just to be admired.

For some other time: issues where people, including me, have disagreed w Larry Summers.

For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...

Trump National Security Council staffers purged, U.S. officials say One source said the firings come after Laura Loomer presented President Trump with opposition research on NSC staffers she views as neoconservatives or not sufficiently loyal to him.

"Sources said those fired include Brian Walsh, senior director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, another senior director."

Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...

Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"

"the source familiar said they were 'being labeled as an anti-neocon move.'"

www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...

U.S. Sanctions Six Individuals for Undermining Hong Kong’s Autonomy - United States Department of State Beijing and Hong Kong officials have used Hong Kong national security laws extraterritorially to intimidate, silence, and harass 19 pro-democracy activists who were forced to flee overseas, including ...

The US has sanctioned a handful of police, national security and government figures in Hong Kong, for actions that "threaten to further erode the autonomy of Hong Kong"

www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...

Also, post-2016 Abe did plenty of outreach to China of his own.

Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China Four Taiwanese soldiers have been jailed for passing information to China in a case that analysts say shows the extent of Beijing’s infiltration of Taipei.

Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

US adds Chinese tech firms to its export control list, says they sought US knowhow for military use The U.S. has added dozens of companies to its export control, including more than 50 based in China that it says sought advanced knowhow in supercomputing, artificial intelligence and quantum technolo...

"A review committee said the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence and another company, the Beijing Innovation Wisdom Technology Co. were judged to have developed large AI models and advanced computer chips for military purposes." apnews.com/article/chin...

How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China As a U.S. military contractor, SpaceX sees allowing Chinese ownership as fraught. But it will allow the investment if it comes through secrecy hubs like the Cayman Islands, court records say. “It is c...

How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China www.propublica.org/article/elon...

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community:

"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."

www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...

👇

Pentagon changed course for Musk visit after report about him viewing China war plans: Officials A U.S. official had told ABC News that Musk was expected to attend a meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff that, among its topics, would touch on China.

Pentagon changed course for Musk visit after report about him viewing China war plans: Officials abcnews.go.com/Politics/tru...

Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons.

My newest CNAS report: Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses

I identify 3 lenses through which to view how Beijing makes decisions related to nukes: leadership, weapons systems & military organizations, & official policies & doctrine.

www.cnas.org/publications...

Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit the US in ‘not too distant future’ Hint at future summit comes amid escalating trade conflict between Washington and Beijing

Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit the US in ‘not too distant future’ www.ft.com/content/a0f0...

Exclusive | Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin Regular contacts between world’s richest man and America’s chief antagonist raise security concerns. Topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters.

Missed this from a @wsj.com story back in October:

"At one point, Putin asked the billionaire [Musk] to avoid activating his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said two people briefed on the request."

www.wsj.com/world/russia...