Thord Are Iversen's Avatar

Thord Are Iversen

@thelookout.bsky.social

Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank. Special interest: The Russian Navy. Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own

15,057 Followers  |  263 Following  |  1,229 Posts  |  Joined: 29.09.2023
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Posts by Thord Are Iversen (@thelookout.bsky.social)

There probably are but I can't help but think that the size of the US international maritime industry, compared to a lot of us others, might have been a factor too.

09.03.2026 17:27 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Still a failure but hiring Sal as Special Advisor for Civilian Shipping to the Joint Chiefs of Staff when they started planning would probably have helped them a lot.

Seems Mahan was on to something that there is more to sea power than pure naval strength.

09.03.2026 17:15 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The failure to understand the global shipping industry, and the impact the war would have on it, is fast emerging as a big US strategic mistake.

09.03.2026 17:02 β€” πŸ‘ 114    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 1
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UPDATE 009-JMIC-ADVISORY NOTE

www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmt...

09.03.2026 16:53 β€” πŸ‘ 43    πŸ” 16    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2
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My mood from monitoring the situation.

09.03.2026 16:40 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Kharg Island related topics are frequently popping up now.

If the US wants to strangle Iranian exports, formally declare and properly enforce a blockade of Iran.

Kinetic action against Kharg itself would be a grave strategic mistake.

08.03.2026 14:23 β€” πŸ‘ 33    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Laden tankers heading to China. There's quite a gap between southern India and the Middle East.

#OOTT #Tankers

08.03.2026 12:46 β€” πŸ‘ 36    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

The Third Gulf War is the name I have chosen to use, don't think it "official" in any way yet.

I treat the Iran-Iraq war as the Iran-Iraq war, the Tanker War as the international maritime a side of that one and Desert Storm as the First Gulf War.

08.03.2026 11:30 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Eksplosjon ved den amerikanske ambassaden i Oslo Det er naturlig Γ₯ se eksplosjonen ved USAs ambassade i Oslo som et mΓ₯lretta angrep, mener politiet.

Seems the Third Gulf War has likely spilled over into Norway.

The explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo is deemed a targeted attack by Norwegian Police: "it is natural to view this in the context of the current security political situation."

www.nrk.no/norge/eksplo...

08.03.2026 11:19 β€” πŸ‘ 53    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 0
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False flagged/stateless merchant ship Caffa, boarded by Sweden yesterday, remains at anchor off Trelleborg.

She was moved a short distance to an anchoring position late last night .

07.03.2026 10:44 β€” πŸ‘ 59    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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ΠŸΠΎΠ²Ρ–Ρ‚Ρ€ΡΠ½Ρ– Π‘ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ Π—Π‘ Π£ΠΊΡ€Π°Ρ—Π½ΠΈ / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ⚑️ Π—Π‘Π˜Π’Πž/ΠŸΠžΠ”ΠΠ’Π›Π•ΠΠž 19 Π ΠΠšΠ•Π’ ВА 453 Π’ΠžΠ ΠžΠ–Π˜Π₯ Π‘ΠŸΠ›Π βž–βž–βž–βž–βž–βž–βž–βž–βž–βž– Π£ Π½Ρ–Ρ‡ Π½Π° 07 бСрСзня (Π· 18:00 06 бСрСзня) ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΡ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΊ Π·Π°Π²Π΄Π°Π² ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠ±Ρ–Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡƒΠ΄Π°Ρ€Ρƒ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΎΠ±'Ρ”ΠΊΡ‚Π°Ρ… ΠΊΡ€ΠΈΡ‚ΠΈΡ‡Π½ΠΎΡ— інфраструктури Π£ΠΊΡ€Π°Ρ—Π½ΠΈ Ρ–Π· застосуванням Ρƒ...

Source:
t.me/kpszsu/57337

07.03.2026 08:09 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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There was a Russian combined strike on Ukraine overnight, with the Ukrainian AF reporting a total of 509 inbounds.

Those were mostly UAVs but due note that the Black Sea Fleet participated.

While attention is diverted to the Middel East, there is still a major war in Europe.

07.03.2026 08:09 β€” πŸ‘ 76    πŸ” 22    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Sweden has boarded a suspected stateless merchant ship.

06.03.2026 18:05 β€” πŸ‘ 97    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

One of the notable exceptions and soon now 44 years ago.

06.03.2026 15:13 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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One such a moment caught on film was the sinking of HMS Barham.

She blew up 4 minutes after the torpedoes from U-331 hit, taking with her 872 men.

Naval history, especially between 1914 and 1945, saw many such moments.

06.03.2026 14:30 β€” πŸ‘ 49    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Since naval warfare after 1945, with a few notable exceptions, have been a rarity, I think many are unaware of the brutality and lethality involved.

A tranquil moment can at the blink of an eye turn into carnage, destruction, suffering and death, the latter in large numbers.

06.03.2026 14:21 β€” πŸ‘ 76    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
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UKMTO WARNING 015-26

06.03.2026 13:51 β€” πŸ‘ 51    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3

...Zhigulevsk returned to Baltiysk area by early evening hours on 5 March, concluding a 20-day mission (14 February-5 March) likely focused on monitoring French Navy aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle

06.03.2026 13:10 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The same applies to interceptor UAVs. They need queuing too.

Air defense requires integrated systems and layers.

06.03.2026 11:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This Ukrainian system has been developed- and evolved based on the resources available to them.

Amongst other things, in general, I still see an unused potential for small and medium caliber AAA, with modern fire control, for point defense of high value targets.

06.03.2026 11:40 β€” πŸ‘ 44    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

On defense against Shahed type UAVs:

There's a lot more to the Ukrainian approach than the small interceptor UAVs by themselves. They have a large organization and a system that has been developed- and evolved over time, based on wartime experiences.

06.03.2026 11:40 β€” πŸ‘ 61    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

What would be surprising was if the Russians weren't sharing intelligence with Iran.

06.03.2026 11:30 β€” πŸ‘ 127    πŸ” 29    πŸ’¬ 10    πŸ“Œ 1

The same rules apply today as back then.

However, the CO of Graf Spee didn't want his ship to be interned in Montevideo for the duration so he went for scuttling instead.

The Sri Lankans have taken the crew off Bushehr so this is an internment.

05.03.2026 17:55 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Sri Lanka Takes Control of Iranian Ship Iris Bushehr and 208 Crew COLOMBO (News1st); Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced that the government has decided to formally take charge of the Iranian vess - Get the latest breaking news and top stories fr...

The Iranian Navy oiler IRIS Bushehr went for internment in neutral Sri Lanka.

english.newsfirst.lk/2026/03/05/s...

05.03.2026 17:25 β€” πŸ‘ 36    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I appreciate a civil discussion so no hard feelings here either.

05.03.2026 16:54 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Observing and commenting on war in this short format often requires separating the many layers of it.

That I think the US sub acted in the best traditions of the service doesn't mean I don't have strong concerns about the lack of strategic thinking involved, nor endorsing going to war itself.

05.03.2026 16:48 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

And I am always sympathetic to the plight of civilian merchant mariners caught by war, which also has a legal side.

05.03.2026 15:24 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I am commenting on the actions of the US subs CO and crew, not on the war in general.

Commenting on naval matters is at the core of what I do here, and regardless of what you may think of the Trump admin or the war itself, this was an historic event in the annals of naval warfare.

05.03.2026 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The legitimacy of the war itself and the legitimacy of the conduct of war are separate issues in international humanitarian law.

05.03.2026 15:02 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This predictably lit a fire so I'll leave the topic now.

If you really care about the legalities of war at sea, do spare a thought for the merchant mariners, civilians of all nationalities, now caught in the war zone and under attack.

05.03.2026 14:45 β€” πŸ‘ 67    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0