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Thord Are Iversen

@thelookout.bsky.social

Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank. Special interest: The Russian Navy. Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own

15,029 Followers  |  263 Following  |  1,211 Posts  |  Joined: 29.09.2023
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Posts by Thord Are Iversen (@thelookout.bsky.social)

The same rules apply today as back then.

However, the CO of Graf Spee didn't want his ship to be interned in Montevideo for the duration so he went for scuttling instead.

The Sri Lankans have taken the crew off Bushehr so this is an internment.

05.03.2026 17:55 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Sri Lanka Takes Control of Iranian Ship Iris Bushehr and 208 Crew COLOMBO (News1st); Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced that the government has decided to formally take charge of the Iranian vess - Get the latest breaking news and top stories fr...

The Iranian Navy oiler IRIS Bushehr went for internment in neutral Sri Lanka.

english.newsfirst.lk/2026/03/05/s...

05.03.2026 17:25 β€” πŸ‘ 26    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I appreciate a civil discussion so no hard feelings here either.

05.03.2026 16:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Observing and commenting on war in this short format often requires separating the many layers of it.

That I think the US sub acted in the best traditions of the service doesn't mean I don't have strong concerns about the lack of strategic thinking involved, nor endorsing going to war itself.

05.03.2026 16:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

And I am always sympathetic to the plight of civilian merchant mariners caught by war, which also has a legal side.

05.03.2026 15:24 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I am commenting on the actions of the US subs CO and crew, not on the war in general.

Commenting on naval matters is at the core of what I do here, and regardless of what you may think of the Trump admin or the war itself, this was an historic event in the annals of naval warfare.

05.03.2026 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The legitimacy of the war itself and the legitimacy of the conduct of war are separate issues in international humanitarian law.

05.03.2026 15:02 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This predictably lit a fire so I'll leave the topic now.

If you really care about the legalities of war at sea, do spare a thought for the merchant mariners, civilians of all nationalities, now caught in the war zone and under attack.

05.03.2026 14:45 β€” πŸ‘ 48    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

What matters in regards to my original post is where they were at the time of the attack.

05.03.2026 14:30 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The Iranian commanding officer could have decided to go to a neutral port and be interned but he didn't do so. He remained at sea in international waters instead.

05.03.2026 14:13 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It's an international armed conflict.

05.03.2026 13:57 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

When it comes to the obligations to rescue, it is more nuanced when it comes to submarines. They are not designed to pick up a larger number of survivors.

That Sri Lanka caught on, either picking up a distress call or alternatively being notified or otherwise by the US covers those obligations IMO

05.03.2026 13:54 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

IHL talks about international armed conflict , "No formal declaration of war or recognition of the situation is required".

My view, though not a lawyer, is even if the war itself can be considered illegal, military actions consistent with LOAC are not by themselves war crimes.

05.03.2026 13:54 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

No.

05.03.2026 13:32 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

To address some of the comments, regardless of what it is called and even without any formal declaration of war, regardless of what you think about it, for the purpose of this kind of discussions, we are beyond any doubt seeing an international armed conflict.

05.03.2026 13:24 β€” πŸ‘ 55    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I had intended not to comment but:

The US submarine didn't do anything wrong, there was no war crime.

They sank an enemy warship in international waters, and neutral Sri Lanka caught on, rather quickly it seems, and rescued the survivors.

05.03.2026 13:02 β€” πŸ‘ 87    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 20    πŸ“Œ 5
Library photo Russian Navy Northern Fleet tanker β€œAkademik Pashin” for illustration only. Photograph by kind permission of @Gibdan1

Library photo Russian Navy Northern Fleet tanker β€œAkademik Pashin” for illustration only. Photograph by kind permission of @Gibdan1

πŸ”ΊOOA activity - heads up!

Russian Navy Northern Fleet tanker β€œAkademik Pashin” is assessed a strong candidate for OOA deployment, Spring 2026, & could deploy next 1-4 weeks.

⚠️OPAREA & tasking unknown ATT.

⚠️Possibility of Pr.22350 class (SKR-454/SKR-461) as consort.

05.03.2026 08:36 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Since everyone has been awed by the effects of a heavyweight torpedo today:

This is a good example of why submarines matter and why some countries, relatively, use a lot of funding on them.

Concerning the rise of the PLAN, the USN submarine force is still the big equalizer.

04.03.2026 17:01 β€” πŸ‘ 57    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Of course, got lost cramming it into the limitations on the other site.

04.03.2026 15:56 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

*disregarding the plight

04.03.2026 15:55 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

1/
As The Third Gulf War spills over, European countries need to remember that we already have a major war in Europe.

Ukraine still needs to be sustained, preferably more than now.

Russia needs to be "handled" in the short, medium- and long term perspectives

04.03.2026 13:36 β€” πŸ‘ 182    πŸ” 41    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

3/
This does in no way mean sympathy for the Ayatollahs, nor the plight of everyday Iranians living under them, but the current European security situation requires clear headed strategic level thinking.

We are where we are in terms of Eur capabilities, resources and industry.

04.03.2026 13:36 β€” πŸ‘ 78    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

2/
Given the lack of clarity in US strategic level thinking, endgame and exit strategy here, one should be cautious in uncritically latching on to their scheme, even if ones own interests and/or obligations seem to require more direct intervention than we have seen so far.

04.03.2026 13:36 β€” πŸ‘ 67    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

1/
As The Third Gulf War spills over, European countries need to remember that we already have a major war in Europe.

Ukraine still needs to be sustained, preferably more than now.

Russia needs to be "handled" in the short, medium- and long term perspectives

04.03.2026 13:36 β€” πŸ‘ 182    πŸ” 41    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2
Archive image, undated

Archive image, undated

RF Navy Northern Fleet Akula-class nuclear-powered fast attack submarine departed port in mid-February and remains underway through 2 March

- could be positioned to trail French Navy aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) when/if it enters the Norwegian Sea

02.03.2026 21:59 β€” πŸ‘ 66    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Library image of NEWCON Pr.23700 rescue support vessel β€œVoevoda”  courtesy of Aleksei Akenteev.

Library image of NEWCON Pr.23700 rescue support vessel β€œVoevoda” courtesy of Aleksei Akenteev.

πŸ”ΊBaltic Shipbuilding - Update

NEWCON Pr.23700 rescue support vessel β€œVoevoda” commissioned into the Russian SAR Service ORBAT following a ceremony at Yantar shipyard, 2 March 2026.

⚠️Originally built for GUGI, but transferred to SAR Service duty, Voevoda should be regarded as dual role.

03.03.2026 08:45 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Macron varslet atom-opprustning: Norge takket nei til Γ₯ bli nevnt Tidligere mandag holdt frankrikes statsminister Emmanuel Macron en tale hvor han varslet at landet vil ruste opp atomprogrammet sitt for fΓΈrste gang pΓ₯ 30 Γ₯r. Dette vil innebΓ¦re at Frankrike kan utsta...

Comment from the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs on why Norway wasn't mentioned by Macron today.

NOR is not opposed to this initiative but is reluctant and needs more time to consider it due to a desire to deal with nuclear matters within NATO.

www.nrk.no/nyheter/macr...

02.03.2026 18:18 β€” πŸ‘ 41    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0
De Belgische militairen enteren gesanctioneerde olietanker van schaduwvloot | Defence Ook op zee gelden wetten. Dat hebben Belgische militairen vannacht extra duidelijk gemaakt door op de Noordzee mee een controle uit te voeren op een gesanctioneerde olietanker. Defensie monitorde het ...

Belgian MoD statement on the tanker seizure.

Her being stateless / false flagged is given as the legal justification, UNCLOS article 110 specifically mentioned.

www.mil.be/fr/news/les-...

01.03.2026 11:47 β€” πŸ‘ 85    πŸ” 19    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3
Library image of Marshal Ustinov for illustration only courtesy of the Irish Armed Forces

Library image of Marshal Ustinov for illustration only courtesy of the Irish Armed Forces

A Pr.885/885M for illustration only. Courtesy of Oleg Kuleshov I think.

A Pr.885/885M for illustration only. Courtesy of Oleg Kuleshov I think.

πŸ”ΊMissile firing - Heads up!

There is increased likelihood of missile firing in the Arctic region, 1 March 2026.

⚠️Highly likely submarine launched cruise missile (SS-N-19 / SS-N-27A - Shooter: UI Pr.885M/Pr.949A

⚠️Likely SS-N-12 from Pr.1164 Slava class RKR-055 β€œMarshall Ustinov”

01.03.2026 10:10 β€” πŸ‘ 35    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The information environment was bad before US-Israeli operations commenced.

Take care when choosing your sources, always apply a healthy dose of skepticism and recognize uncertainty and that there are many unknowns.

Open sources don't see everything, far from it.

28.02.2026 09:13 β€” πŸ‘ 158    πŸ” 40    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 1