@thelookout.bsky.social
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank. Special interest: The Russian Navy. Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
image via ekstrabladet.dk helo footage.
๐บBaltic Sea activity - Update
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet Pr.775 class BDK-110 "Alexandr Shabalin" highly likely departed the Fehmarn Belt loiter area, late PM 3 October 2025.
โ ๏ธUnit ENR an assessed RTP Baltiysk but could conduct further loiter activity along the Polish littoral / SE Bornholm area.
Following the interception of BORACAY / PUSHPA, two websites pretending to be the Benin Maritime Administration got removed from the Benin TLD (.bj). This was the websites that the false certificates pointed to.
This looks to me a lot like a government intervention
Happy to see my work pays off.
Regarding Lake Onega and a Buyan-M:
A claim is just a claim until proper evidence surfaces.
3/3
Link:
www.fe-ddis.dk/da/nyheder/2...
2/3
Provocations: Perhaps old-fashioned but still a good term.
1/3
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has published a new assessment today, on the "hybrid threat to Denmark".
It's 5 pages so here is a short thread with screenshots.
A theory: Belgorod was taken into the halls in mid July.
02.10.2025 20:05 โ ๐ 21 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0โ ๏ธ Arctic activity - Heads up!
There is an increased likelihood of an unspecified probable missile firing event occurring in the Arctic region, evening 2 October 2025, extending into 3 October.
๐ฉ๐ฐDanish, ๐ธ๐ชSwedish and ๐ณ๐ดNorwegian Police works closely together in Copenhagen to secure the EU Summit in a operation planned for a long time. In a similar way, the three police forces worked together at the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 in Malmรถ, Sweden.
02.10.2025 15:02 โ ๐ 79 ๐ 8 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 1Since it's October tomorrow:
A reminder that October is the month where Russia usually conducts it's annual strategic nuclear forces exercise Grom and NATO usually runs the annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.
Both are normal activities, as annual implies.
โ ๏ธ Arctic activity - Heads up!
There is an increased likelihood of an unspecified high priority event, possibly a missile firing, occurring in the Arctic region, during the evening 28 September 2025, into 29 September.
Image courtesy of Mr Peter Ferrary
Image courtesy of Mr Peter Ferrary
๐บOOA activity - Update
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tug "Yakov Grebelskiy" which conducted STROG westbound with B-261 โNovorossiyskโ, 26 September 2025, returned to the Mediterranean Sea, overnight.
โ ๏ธIt could not be determined if Kilo B-261 "Novorossiysk" also returned to the Mediterranean Sea.
There are some rumors regarding the Kilo-class SSK Novorossiysk circulating, that I recommend being very sceptical of.
27.09.2025 10:46 โ ๐ 66 ๐ 11 ๐ฌ 8 ๐ 0Open sources today can give the impression of seeing everything when that certainly isn't the case, sometimes leading to "funny" media coverage.
27.09.2025 07:59 โ ๐ 3 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Avoiding public detection does NOT say anything about what the professionals know or don't know.
All this said, thanks to Extrabladet for flying out and getting us footage of Shabalin.
Since it's in the wind with the footage of the Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin:
Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally.
Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.
Regarding the three Russian violations of Norwegian airspace, it would be interesting to know if there was any communication between the Norwegian Joint HQ and Northern Fleet headquarters.
Contrary to many others and as far as I can tell, direct comms is still in effect.
One can issue harsh statements, loosen ROE's, move assets but engaging will not be the wise decision at every corner.
With UAVs (or missiles), such as over Poland and Romania, things are different and engaging is the correct approach, but not everywhere due to the risk of collateral damage.
Over water incidents, or barely crossing a land border, aren't the same as overflying Gotland, Hankรถ, Hiiumaa or the Varanger Peninsula.
Each incident will be different, so judgement will have to be applied each and every time.
One can use the Russian playbook and be creative in the air without engaging if they don't comply.
I don't think it would have been wise to engage in this Estonian incident. Geography matters, so does what the planes are doing beyond the violation and also how they are armed.
Getting trigger happy on violations by manned Russian aircraft could throw a real wrench in the works for allied ISR in international airspace both off Kola, in the Barents Sea, and the Black Sea.
I still think the bar for engaging should remain high and not something that should go automatically.
There are no easy ways of directly preventing a repeat of such violations up north, along the air defence track, due geography and the distances involved.
23.09.2025 11:59 โ ๐ 16 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0Can't say that the Norwegian government withholding this from the public sphere is surprising, but doing so could create backlash now that it's out.
An appropriate response would be to remove the last self imposed restrictions on allied activity in Finnmark.
Det er oppsiktsvekkende at Regjeringen ikke tidligere informerte offentligheten om disse russiske krenkelsene av ๐ณ๐ด suverenitet. ๐ต๐ฑ๐ธ๐ช๐ซ๐ฎ๐ช๐ช๐ฑ๐ป๐ฑ๐น forteller stort sett samme dag.
Stรธre bรธr forklare oss i รst-Finnmark hvorfor han holdt tilbake info i mรฅnedsvis.
www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/n...
Full text:
www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/n...
In a fresh press-release, the Norwegian government says that Russian aircraft have violated Norwegian airspace three times this year.
Even during the Cold War, Soviet airspace violations were rare, and usually involved aircraft coming from Cuba, running low on fuel.
Nearly regardless of the level of preparedness, it is close to impossible to prevent all types of drone incidents, around all types of "interesting" installations.
Ranting about "impotent NATO" every time won't prevent all new incidents but I can imagine someone applauding it.
Since drones are in the wind again: Do remember that the variety is huge.
Some drones are a safety/security/police/counterintelligence problem.
Some drones are an air defence problem.
Then there are drones that represent a mix of all of the above.
There is no single solution.
A very quick and crudely drawn map in QGIS, just to illustrate the clearest contrails and their locations.
Also, a current map showing current vessel locations around Novaya Zemlya.
Of note, Teriberka left Pankovo in the last few hours.
