Martha

Even Electoral Calculus, who still have Labour 6 points ahead of the Greens nationally, think she's toast. I don't think that's going to change but there's 3 years left of this government and if the Green Menace can make Labour dial back the evil (however insincerely) that's a win in itself.

The new politics in microcosm. Reform vs Green where Tory vs Labour used to be. 2/3 of Tamworth voted for Chris Pincher so not a surprise it's a right wing win.

Irrespective of party politics it's good news - give young people a say in their future. I hope schools encourage eligible pupils to vote because if they start voting at that age they'll keep voting later in life. Good news for the greens is a bonus - is anyone polling newly eligible voters in 2029?

Making companies recognise liabilities that they have to the public is vital. I'd like to see a way of bringing the natural capital that organisations have stewardship over on humanity's behalf onto the balance sheet, so that when they degrade the environment that reduces their financial position.

I think there's a chunk of Reform votes based on "we need something, anything, different" when they seemed to be the only non-traditional party with a chance. I think if presented with a choice of Reform or Green both giving off different vibes from Tory/Labour some will definitely pick Green.

So apart from immigrants, trans people, disabled people, the environment, pensioners, the right to protest, and Brexit, what have Labour ever fucked up for us?

There doesn't seem to be much correlation between left-leaning areas and left-leaning Labour MPs - look where Starmer and Mahmood are. That said the left-leaning MPs may have a better chance of holding off the Greens. Who has the authority in Labour to enter into any coalition would be interesting!

Yes, would have been good if they'd got Streeting! 3 of them plus Sultana are still in Your Party, the other two quit because YP wasn't accommodating enough to their homophobia/transphobia.

They look like seats where pro-Palestine indies were 1st or close 2nd in 2024, so the model is giving them the seat. I can see Ilford N on the map - Streeting has a tiny majority over an indy. Local factors will determine Green v ind v YP v WP in those seats I reckon but Labour are toast whichever.

Truss's seat went Labour on something like 26% of the vote - split between Truss, Reform, and someone who left the Tories in protest at Truss. It's politically closer to Lincolnshire than Suffolk and is 100% going Reform at the next election. Shame, because the Labour MP is actually fairly decent.

That's what I'm hoping for. But on these numbers still 30 seats short of a majority. I'd expect no government or short lived RW coaltion + fresh elections in this scenario and I'd hope for at least GRN and LDM to then make a pact with the intention of forming a coalition if they can get the numbers.

I think if that played out we'd see a Ref+Con+Lab (+DUP?) government. I can see Labour now 'the people have spoken and they clearly want a Reform government, in the national interest we will facilitate that rather than allow chaos'.

Waveney Valley is already Green for Westminster, and the Greens have a very strong council base in Suffolk including control of one local council. Very much the middle class hippies end of the Green base, and how much that holds up as the Greens emphasise their leftiness I'm not sure.

They're rattled as hell. Good. Let them race to the bottom - people will vote for positive politics if they get a chance rather than politicians smearing others with the very muck they're covered in themselves.

I dunno, testosterone literally makes me cross.

That's a big drop for Ref+Con without a corresponding boost further left - is this evidence of Rupert Lowe splitting the right?

My Tory councillor family can't stand Farage or Reform - based on vibes, work ethic & Russia. I'd say they're more sympathetic to the Greens than any other party - they like the environmental side and think they're more likely to be genuinely trying to work for the community than Lib Dems or Labour.

Corbyn's Labour proved that left wing policy can poll 40% in a general election. The sky's the limit for you Zack - you're better than Jeremy at facing down the smears. Nice to see no mention of boobs or teeth there - they're having to take you seriously enough to talk policy where you will win.

The Senedd system punishes small parties. Greens are polling below the key 12% threshold nationally so I'd encourage Greens (and Lib Dems tbh) in seats where they are weaker to switch to Plaid. For me in Gwynedd Maldwyn that's made what might have been a difficult decision between the two quite easy

Your Party seems to be serving a purpose of distracting the leftier-than-thou purists who are more interested in fighting each other than the right, allowing the Greens to get on with making the case for actually popular economically left and socially liberal policies.

The world could be such a nice place if we allowed it. It's all so goddamn unnecessary. There's no need for any of it. It's so beautiful here. It should be so cool to be alive

I was at uni with this guy. He was already fully formed as ... whatever this is. It's almost a relief that he hasn't got any less weird and horrible over the years.

Farage would *hate* actually having to bother running the country. I think he's self-aware enough to know that. And he doesn't need it, he's achieving all his policy objectives from the sidelines. As Blair was Thatcher's legacy so Starmer is Farage's.

Ahem, England! 🌼🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Environmentalism can't succeed without social justice and vice versa. Not in a world where billionaires who fund the right want to abandon net zero and use all the world's resources to power their replacing humans badly machines, while rising seas will create millions of refugees. It's one fight.

I can understand how people get to having concerns over trans women in elite sport, new research notwithstanding, but what on earth is the point with amateur sport other than performative cruelty? More and more sports are going this way, I've basically stopped exercising since I transitioned.

Ha, you're probably right. Churchill was always able to project power and enjoyment of life from behind the scowl though. This guy just presents a sort of damp misery.

Like I know it's not fair to mock people's appearance but he genuinely looks like his entire face is about to slough off and slump to the ground in despair at being attached to him. You don't get a face like that from helping people and making their lives better.

If this were true (which it isn't) what would be the point of stopping Reform if it leaves Labour in charge to implement Reform policies with a bit more hand-wringing? Your race-to-the-bottom politics means everyone loses.

A lot of it is generational. Thatcher won with every age group including 18-24 year olds in 1983 and 1987. A lot of those people's views haven't changed much.