Michael Harris

A Remarkably Robust Anti-Correlation The US dollar index and gold have exhibited a remarkably robust anti-correlation since the mid-1970s, while stocks and gold have been uncorrelated.Here is a chart that shows the 24- and 60-mon

A Remarkably Robust Anti-Correlation www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/07... #SPX #DXY #gold #bonds

YouTube video by Quantitative and Technical Analysis Unusual Market Gains and Naïve Bullish Forecasts

New video: Unusual Market Gains and Naïve Bullish Forecasts youtu.be/T1yrhSlylAA?... via #YouTube

YouTube video by Quantitative and Technical Analysis Combining Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Seasonality

Combining Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Seasonality youtu.be/IR6zm1YOdi4?... via #YouTube #SPY #TLT #GLD #QQQ

Buying New Highs and the Effect of Upward Drift In a recent article, Barry L. Ritholtz, co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC., wrote that all-time highs are bullish. Here is the analysis but with some

Buying New Highs and the Effect of Upward Drift www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/07... #SPX #investing

Crude Oil the Peacemaker The rally in crude oil prices probably forced a cancellation or delay of further US plans for attacks in Iran and imposed a ceasefire deal.The ceasefire decision on June 23, 2025, was most pro

New article: Crude Oil the Peacemaker www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/06... #CL_F #ES_F #IranUSConflict #inflation #CrudeOil

YouTube video by Quantitative and Technical Analysis Trading strategies for alpha

Trading strategies for alpha youtu.be/zu_rERHxevo?... via #YouTube #tradingstrategy #trading

Confusing Finance Terminology is Driving Investors to Passive Index Funds Recently, investors have pushed back against confusing marketing that uses academic finance terminology. We briefly discuss volatility drag and convexity.In the 1980s and early 1990s, investin

New free article: Confusing Finance Terminology is Driving Investors to Passive Index Funds www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/06... #SPY #SPX #UPRO #markets

YouTube video by Quantitative and Technical Analysis Trading strategy design: Quant vs. speculation

New video: youtu.be/HzmZPHbdRmA #tradingstrategy

YouTube video by Michael Harris - Common Sense Macro Are extinctionists in control of geopolitics? Elon Musk's position and the future of equities.

New video from Common Sense Macro: Are extinctionists in control of geopolitics? Elon Musk's position and the future of equities youtu.be/lIyIlDFZro4?... via #YouTube

The Elusive Gold-to-Silver Ratio Precious metals traders and gold bugs often make references to the gold-to-silver ratio and attempt to make inferences about price action in that market and especially about the potential of silver to

The Elusive Gold-to-Silver Ratio www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/05... #GLD #SLV

Investing in Managed Futures is a Long Term Commitment Managed futures can experience long "winters," high drawdowns, and long recovery periods. Investing in managed futures is a high-risk, long-term commitment.Below is an example based on the per

New article: Investing in Managed Futures is a Long-Term Commitment www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/05... #SPX

YouTube video by Quantitative and Technical Analysis Market price action on May 12, 2025, large gaps, short squeeze, and financial engineering

New video: Market price action on May 12, 2025, large gaps, short squeeze, and financial engineering youtu.be/G7s0ur1IMiE?... via #YouTube #market #trading #investing #SPY #SPX

Regime change in S&P 500 Index 2-Standard Deviation Moves An intriguing regime change in the forward performance of 2-standard deviation moves in the S&P 500 index has occurred after 2008.Equity indexes are surging today due to optimism about tariff

Regime change in S&P 500 Index 2-Standard Deviation Moves www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/05... #SPX

An Extremely Rare 5-Sigma Event in the Stock Market April 2025 delivered multiple tail events. The latest was an extremely rare 5-sigma event.The first rare event was a two-day, -7-sigma event. The second was a daily +9-sigma event. The third

New free article: An Extremely Rare 5-Sigma Event in the Stock Market www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/05... #SPX #SPY #markets #risk #trading #investing

YouTube video by Quantitative and Technical Analysis Price Action Stats Blast—April 24, 2025

New video: Price Action Stats Blast—April 24, 2025 youtu.be/O7zZnFDpUxM?... via #YouTube #SPY #SPX #markets #trading

Is Gold the New Zero Yield Perpetual Bond? After decades of accumulated debt due to irrational monetary and fiscal policies coupled with significant geopolitical challenges, an unavoidable regime change is occurring this year, with significant

New article: Is Gold the New Zero-Yield Perpetual Bond? www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #GLD #gold

Trend Following: Complexity, Dispersion, and the Role of Luck Trend following is not a specific trading method but a large variety of methods that emerge from the high complexity of markets. As a result, depending on the method used, the performance of a group o

Trend Following: Complexity, Dispersion, and the Role of Luck priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #SPX #trading #investing #markets

Trading and Investing: When the Going Gets Tough Avoiding the market pain during periods of turmoil by staying on the sidelines is often the cause of missing the next opportunity and even never recovering previous losses. When the going gets tough i

New free article. Trading and Investing: When the Going Gets Tough priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #SPY #QQQ

YouTube video by Michael Harris - Common Sense Macro Tariffs, deglobalization, and the end of financial engineering

New video from Common Sense Macro: Tariffs, deglobalization, and the end of financial engineering youtu.be/Set4A7vvzjE?... via #YouTube

The Year of the Tails After a negative 7-sigma two-day drop last week in the S&P 500 index, yesterday there was a positive 9-sigma rally. These tail events are rare and have historically occurred during large correctio

The Year of the Tails www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #SPX #SPY #market #investing #trading

Traditional Hedges Have Not Delivered During This Correction Bonds, gold, commodities, and managed futures have not delivered a hedge during this correction. Bitcoin has disappointed. Only long volatility has provided a hedge.Gold (GLD) and bonds (TLT)

Traditional Hedges Have Not Delivered During This Correction priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #IVOL #TAIL #DMBF #DBC #TLT #GLD #SPY

Rare 7-Sigma Two-Day Drop: Time to Reflect After a rare 7-sigma drop in the stock market, macro analysts should consider their recent analysis, and tactical asset allocators should not celebrate any outperformance. The markets are in an "unfor

New article: Rare 7-Sigma Two-Day Drop: Time to Reflect www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #SPX #SPY

An Excuse for a 5-Sigma Stock Market Plunge Although many analysts and market participants associate the stock market drop on April 3, 2025, with the tariff announcement, the market has been looking for an excuse to correct since at least Janua

An Excuse for a 5-Sigma Stock Market Plunge www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #SPX #market #trading #investing

Are Reflex Rallies Disappearing? The frequency of "reflex rallies" occurring in stock market downtrends has diminished after the GFC bear market. New financial products and crowded trades may have imposed a regime change.For

Are Reflex Rallies Disappearing? www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/04... #SPX #SPY #markets #trading #investing

YouTube video by Michael Harris - Common Sense Macro New complexity, peace prospects, gold's rally, and crypto woes

New video: New complexity, peace prospects, gold's rally, and crypto woes youtu.be/XWF-mFmOwec?... via #YouTube

Highly Leveraged ETNs May Not Be Suitable for Investing The long-term performance of highly leveraged ETN products depends on the duration and depth of the drawdowns of the underlying instrument. Depending on the volatility of the underlying, these product

Highly Leveraged ETNs May Not Be Suitable for Investing www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/03... #SPYU #SPY

Stock Market: Focusing on the Wrong Problem Predictions of when the next bear market will arrive are futile exercises and they focus on the wrong problem. A better problem to focus on is how to minimize the inevitable losses.When it com

New free article and must-read: Stock Market: Focusing on the Wrong Problem www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/03... #SPY #SPX #markets #investing #trading

YouTube video by Michael Harris - Common Sense Macro The village economy is booming. The citizens are poor. CPI rose, and recession odds.

New video: The village economy is booming. The citizens are poor. CPI rose, and recession odds. youtu.be/OGULDrtG8gs?... via #YouTube

Foreign Stocks: Will History Repeat? Are the new China, emerging markets, and Eurozone bulls the old US permabulls? We should make some exceptions for those who are market timers, but it may as well be the case.From 2015 to the e

Foreign Stocks: Will History Repeat? New free article. www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/03... #SPY #EZU #EEM #FXI

YouTube video by Michael Harris - Common Sense Macro China's New Deal; Pro-labor policies; New collateral; Safest country in World

New video: China's New Deal; Pro-labor policies; New collateral; Safest country in World youtu.be/EDgl-Bixfl8