Tom Rees

UK Targets End-2026 for Stablecoin Rules to Keep Pace With US The Bank of England is aiming to have new stablecoin regulations in place by the end of next year, as policymakers around the world battle to contain risks to financial stability from the spread of th...

Trio of Bank of England exclusives:
1) BOE looks to have stablecoin rules in place by end of 2026 to keep pace with US bit.ly/4hq4gVY
2) BOE begins industry outreach over private credit stress tests bit.ly/47mMpuw
3) BOE plans to move out of its Moorgate office where the PRA is house bit.ly/4oyoH5k

Bank of England Considers Shelving Plans for a Digital Pound Bank of England officials are mulling whether to set aside plans to create a digital pound for households amid growing skepticism over the project’s benefits, the latest sign of dwindling support for ...

BOE Governor Bailey has just confirmed our scoop from this morning that the central bank will step back from creating a digital pound if commercial banks press ahead enough with payment innovations.
Read our story 👇
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

How Britain’s Stats Geeks Lost Track of the Economy Just before midday on May 9, employees of the Office for National Statistics were summoned to an urgent call.

This is our inside look at what went so wrong at the ONS. We spoke to over 20 insiders who peeled back the curtain, revealing deep-seated problems from accusations of bullying to chaos at the top of stats body. Lots of new stuff in there. Read here 👇

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

As @gavinfreeguard.bsky.social says, this is big news

The ONS has started to take action to get a grip on data problems

But there are long-standing concerns about the pipeline of stats leaders, so who will fill the vacancy?

From a few weeks ago: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/offi...

Big news 👇

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

ONS confirms our exclusive story that Ian Diamond has resigned as head of the national statistics body! It came after mounting pressures over the ONS's handling of a collapse in response rates to key household surveys. It had made its unemployment and employment figures useless

Britain’s GDP Numbers Will Be Affected by Latest Stats Problem The UK’s embattled statistics agency is quietly shaking up its top team after a string of high-profile problems with key economics data.

Exclusive from us on a shake-up at the top of the ONS:

- The ONS's Deputy National Statistician is leaving after string of high-profile problems with key economics data

- He was official that BOE's Huw Pill sent his infamous letter to last year

Read here 👇

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Starmer’s Battle on the Home Front: Is Labour Delivering on Its Promises? Eight months after Labour’s landslide victory, Bloomberg examines if the UK government is on track to meet key election pledges.

Great report card from Labour's first months in power from
@philaldrick.bsky.social
One of Starmer's pledges even gets a 1/10 score 😬

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

UK Statistician Blames Cuts and Smart Doorbells for Data Crisis The head of the UK’s statistics agency has blamed budget cuts and the spread of video doorbells for a crisis around the quality of its data.

Amazing tale from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social and @irinaanghel.bsky.social
The ONS is struggling to collect critical labour market survey data because people aren't answering the door after checking their video doorbells www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Regulators Investigate How Far Britain’s Data Crisis Has Spread Regulators are investigating whether more of the UK’s official economic statistics have been hit by problems similar to those that plunged crucial labor market data into chaos.

Our latest exclusive on the crisis at the UK statistics agency 👇
- Regulators are doing a sweeping examination of the ONS's surveys to see if more are affected by a plunge in responses
- Problems found with 2 more surveys, inc. one that helps produce GDP estimates www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Faltering UK Growth Risks £30 Billion Hole in Reeves’ Budget Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves would be left with a £30 billion ($36.7 billion) black hole if her plans were based on up-to-date City forecasts instead of the UK’s official growth projectio...

Here is the real world consequence for Reeves of the lack of growth plan so far:

The chancellor would be left with a £30 billion black hole if her plans were based on up-to-date City forecasts, Bloomberg calculations show

Via @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Faltering UK Growth Risks £30 Billion Hole in Reeves’ Budget Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves would be left with a £30 billion ($36.7 billion) black hole if her plans were based on up-to-date City forecasts instead of the UK’s official growth projectio...

Our exclusive story this afternoon reveals how exposed Reeves is to the rapidly deteriorating growth picture.
She would face a £30 billion hole in her budget plans if the OBR downgraded its forecasts to be in line with private sector forecasters. Read here 👇

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

UK Inflation Lowered by Stats Body Using Christmas Eve Air Fares Slower inflation looked like a pleasant surprise for the British economy, when figures for December were published on Wednesday morning — but economists have noticed an unusually festive reason why th...

At risk of being too in the weeds on inflation, the fall may be partially down to a quirk on air fares
The ONS took return leg prices on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve, artificially bringing down prices and services inf as travelers don't like to fly on those days
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The UK has seen gilt yields rise sharply in early 2025 no doubt but they don't look quite as horrific when you look at it like this. Gloomy UK narrative looks overdone
- 2-yr yield in line with rest of Europe/US
- 10-yr yield 5bps above average move
- 30-yr yield a bit worse, 7bps above average

Is Britain’s Labour Party Facing a Liz Truss Moment? A rout in UK bonds has evoked memories of the market crisis during Liz Truss’s calamitous premiership and raised questions over Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ budget plans.

Great explainer from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social on why recent UK market turmoil isn’t quite another Liz Truss moment - but is still causing headaches for Chancellor Rachel Reeves www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Is Britain’s Labour Party Facing a Liz Truss Moment? A rout in UK bonds has evoked memories of the market crisis during Liz Truss’s calamitous premiership and raised questions over Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ budget plans.

Really great (and very accessible!) explainer by @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social on what’s been going on in UK markets, including why it’s not as bad as the Truss disaster but still very worrying for Reeves >>>

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Pretty dismal numbers to end the year on:

- No growth in Q3 even before budget hysteria really ramped up
- GDP per head still below pre-pandemic levels
- Saving ratio remains elevated at over 10%, suggests consumer caution lingering
- No growth in real disposable incomes per head

Doubts About UK Statistics Agency’s Surveys Spread to GDP Data The same kind of survey failures that have left the UK unsure about the number of people in Britain’s workforce are now raising doubts about the size of its economy.

Latest exclusive from us on the ONS data crisis:

- a survey that helps produce the GDP data has seen a collapse in responses similar to those that hit the labour market figures.
- ONS forced to take action after drop in responses to as low as 22%
Read here 👇

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bailey playing down the wage surprise and the MPC's new judgement that the labor market is now in balance felt pretty dovish to me. Any reason to dismiss those?

The PMIs can overreact to political news but other labour market surveys have also shown demand for workers sinking post budget.
The silver lining was the PMI suggested this was more about cutting working hours and not replacing leavers than redundancies

UK Statistics Failing on Multiple Fronts Pose New Policy Risk Britain has a data problem that is raising fears of policy mis-steps at a critical juncture for the UK economy.

Bad UK economic stats are new policy risk. The ONS failures on jobs and migration, the Bank of England’s “shocking” data handling. OBR errors. At a time when Reeves is trying a fiscal experiment, it’s a risk

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Slightly complicated signals on the NI hike impact from the BOE's CFO survey:

-Over half of firms plan to raise prices, far fewer will curb wages instead. Clearly that's bad for the BOE

-But also 54% of businesses expect to reduce employment, which in the longer term could reduce wage pressures

Costs Almost Double in UK Building Program to Ease Prison Crisis Britain’s prison building program aimed at easing an overcrowding crisis will be five years late and cost almost double the original estimates, according to the spending watchdog.

National Audit Office damns the Tory record on justice and prisons

Prison rebuilding programme will cost £4b more than planned, double the original estimate, and run 5 years late

Shortage of 12,000 prison places by end 2027

Via @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Great story this: Culture of fear causes crisis at the ONS

Culture of Fear Blamed for Crisis in Britain’s Statistics Agency A crisis around Britain’s employment statistics has been blamed on funding constraints, a lack of modernization and staff being afraid to raise problems, according to official documents and people fam...

A culture of fear at the ONS is partly to blame for the collapse in quality of UK jobs data. Staff fear for their "psychological safety”, have "anxiety" & believe they must relay "positive messaging/" Managers should raise "candour" w/ @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

- Officials pressed the government over funding shortfalls that weakened the key survey
- A reluctance to embrace administrative data that could have helped when survey responses plunged
- Issues around hiring with economic statisticians also in high demand in the City
2/2

Culture of Fear Blamed for Crisis in Britain’s Statistics Agency A crisis around Britain’s employment statistics has been blamed on funding constraints, a lack of modernization and staff being afraid to raise problems, according to official documents and people fam...

Me and @philaldrick.bsky.social have published our exclusive probing what has gone wrong at the ONS. After speaking to lots of people and trawling docs, we found:
- A culture of fear stopped officials raising issues with the labor market data
- Insiders lament a number of missed opportunities. 1/2

What news would have to break to stop the BBC splashing on Greg Wallace

ONS has confirmed our report from last month this morning. BOE will be setting policy with one hand tied behind its back for the foreseeable future given these delays to the new labor market survey.
Perhaps why BOE ratesetters have been turning up the heat on the ONS is recent days

UK May Have to Wait Until 2027 for More Reliable Jobs Statistics The UK may delay by years the rollout of a new survey to provide a more reliable picture of who’s working and who’s not, deepening concern about key economic indicators the Bank of England relies on t...

Good to see FT catching up with @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social piece two weeks ago on the UK's faulty jobs data not being replaced with a working version until 2027.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...