Caroline Krafft

Education policy doesn’t always require sweeping reforms. Getting the basics right—retaining strong teachers, adopting high-quality curricula, and ensuring students have sufficient time in school—can go a long way.

Chartbook 436 Unseasonal war. How the US-Israeli war on Iran threatens the global agricultural cycle. One impact of the war being waged by the US and Israel against Iran that is not getting as much attention as it deserves, is the impact on the global supply of fertilizer.

8/ Read Tooze on why the Fertilizer shock during planting season is going to cause a lot of pain. Guess where most people in the world live & farm - Asia!

Most people don't know -I didnt!- Gulf countries as a whole are 2nd largest fertilizer exporters
adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

I planned to share my report on the body cam footage early next week when I learned that a DC news station had obtained some of the footage as a result of my lawsuit and they were going to scoop me. After working on this for a year, I couldn't let that happen. Published 2 mins before they aired :)

Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success. Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302

The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted.

What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards.

Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.

Refugee Arrivals by State and Nationality Fiscal Year 2024 October 1, 2023 through September 30, 2024 Actual Destination PA Nationality Oct Mar May Jul Sep Grand Total State Name Grand Total 7,361 Nov 7,468 Dec 6,968 Jan 9,198 Feb 10,251 7,439 Apr 6,388 7,477 Jun 6,458 Aug 9,522 15,743 100,034 Alabama Total 15 7 6 26 32 47 38 75 。丝ps 85 120 559 Afghanistan 6 11 5ss 13 9 Angola 1 str ss Burma 13 Colombia 4 5 4 13 Cuba 1 1 Dem. Rep. Congo 7 1 5 5 1 22 El Salvador 5 9 1 20 Eritrea 2 8 TN 11 Guatemala 5 5 12 10 4 9 14 3 11 11 84 Haiti 2 3 Honduras 4 7 Iraq t2rw Nicaragua 3 6 2 16 2 Rwanda Somalia 1 9 4 4 Syria 13 5 DDLLN Venezuela 8 35 15 18 218E9r 68 Yemen Alaska Total 11 15 9 7 25 14 28 27 9 Afghanistan 5 Burma 4 4 Colombia GL z Dem. Rep. Congo 1 8 1 6 29 4 1 NN 1 2 Eritrea Guatemala 5 Tw Republic of South Sudan 1 4 8 s 8L ∞ Russia 5 Somalia 4 1 5 Sudan SL Ukraine 6 6 Venezuela Arizona Total 299 261 287 8otmrt8 9E 5eo2w Afghanistan 27 16 r8esx 9gz6e porm I8s8zob 400 Burma 20 26 ャob se 9t8zze8 rtie 8s Burundi 11 9z4tesszg Cameroon 1 Central African Republic 2 4 8 Chad 1 Colombia 8 3 96 10 3 4 Congo 1 Cuba Q2+ w 1 1 Dem. Rep. Congo 121 116 79 87 30 49 1,274 El Salvador 5 rrtut 8wgt St w 46 22 Eritrea 2 3 6 15 10 Ethiopia 2w w 69 ٢atamدlد 101 37 14 16 120

Refugee Arrivals by State and Nationality Fiscal Year 2026 October 1, 2025 through January 31, 2026 Actual Destination State Name PA Nationality Nov Dec Jan Grand Total Grand Total Alabama 125 595 931 1,651 Total 7 7 Alaska South Africa 7 7 Total 4 4 Arizona South Africa 4 4 Total 2 7 21 30 Arkansas South Africa 2 7 21 30 Total 1 1 California South Africa 1 1 Total 12 28 59 99 Colorado South Africa 12 28 59 99 Total 10 39 31 80 Afghanistan 3 3 South Africa 7 39 31 77 Connecticut Total 9 14 23 South Africa 9 14 23 Florida Total 14 48 59 121 South Africa 14 48 59 Microsoft Pol

notice any changes in which refugees are allowed to come to the US

This is not good.

An Economic View on Investment to End Child Marriage Child marriage is an economic issue, not purely a human rights issue. The Institute for Global Politics Women’s Initiative at Columbia University launched a report yesterday titled “Accelerating Effor...

An Economic View on Investment to End Child Marriage from @cgdev.org's Kehinde Ajayi, @gsmarrelli.bsky.social and Radhika Nagesh www.cgdev.org/blog/economi...

#EconSky

Today's jobs report was much weaker than expected. Payroll jobs fell 92k in Feb, and revisions to Dec data show a loss of 17k jobs. Average job growth over the last 3 months now under 6k.

Household survey population controls indicate a significant drop in the labor force.

#NumbersDay #EconSky

There Is No Housing Affordability Without Building More Housing If we make it easier to build dense housing in cities, then the resulting supply boost will ease the cost burden on renters and put homeownership within closer reach for millions of households.

Every couple of months or so, someone puts out a piece of bad social science meant to undermine the case for more housing. For Roosevelt Institute, I wrote a blog post responding to the two most recent specimens. rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/there-i...

From arrival to settlement. Vulnerabilities of asylum seekers and refugees in Europe - N-IUSSP download pdfPrintShare this post

N-IUSSP Ebook: From arrival to settlement. Vulnerabilities of asylum seekers and refugees in Europe, edited by Daria Mendola, explores the issue from a multidisciplinary perspective, placing Italy within the broader European context.

www.niussp.org/ebooks/from-...

#demography
#populationstudies

Summer plans? Oh - we are just hanging out with the best group of people at the Data-Intensive Workshop on July 20 -21. That amazing crew could include you! Apply by April 1st! https://lcc.umn.edu/DIRC-workshop

Despite rising educational attainment, women’s employment rates have declined in Egypt, falling to just 15% as of 2023. This chapter explores the determinants of declining female employment rates in Egypt. The research considers demand side factors, including potential discrimination and the changing structure of the economy, as well as supply side factors, such as gender norms, domestic responsibilities, and education mismatch. Analyses illustrate trends in women’s employment and review the rich literature on drivers of women’s employment in Egypt. A particular focus is how the policy environment shapes both supply and demand for women’s labor. While women have become increasingly educated, restrictive gender norms and disproportionate care responsibilities limit what types of employment they can accept. Those types of jobs have become decreasingly available since structural reform curtailed public sector hiring. The private sector has not created sufficient “women-friendly” employment. Policy and programmatic interventions that try to increase women’s employment will have to either create woman-friendly jobs or shift gender norms that restrict women’s employment.

📣 "Why are women’s employment rates declining in Egypt?" New GLO working paper! Explores demand side, incl. potential discrimination & the changing structure of the economy, & supply side, incl. gender norms, domestic responsibilities, & education mismatch. #EconSky

www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

Female and minority students are underrepresented in economics. This paper uses longitudinal data to compare persistence in economics for female and male/non-binary students, as well as minority-identifying and non-minority students, along with the potential role of identity-focused institutions (women’s colleges and minority-serving institutions) in shaping persistence in economics. Plans to persist in economics diminished over time, although less so for female students than male students and less so for minority students than non-minority students. This finding is contrary to previous research and suggests that efforts to improve representation in economics should focus on recruiting more underrepresented students because it seems that those underrepresented students who are already in the major are at least as inclined to persist as their white male counterparts. Women’s colleges and MSIs did not lead to significantly different changes in overall persistence.

📣New: “Persistence in Economics: Differences across Identities and Institutions.” w/Kristine West, Allen Bellas, Ming Chien Lo, Joy Moua, Natalie Chanlder, J Dombroski, Najma Hussein, Ayah Makled, Mollie Pierson. Advances in Economics Education #EconSky #TeachEcon www.elgaronline.com/view/journal...

Illustration of people with text that states, “Apply Mar. 1–31 for Minneapolis Boards & Commissions. The City welcomes applicants with diverse backgrounds, experiences and perspectives to strengthen the work of our boards, commissions and advisory committees.”

Your voice matters! We’re looking for community members to serve on several Minneapolis boards and commissions. Apply March 1–31: minneapolismn.gov/boards

"Women strategically sort into family-friendly sectors w lower returns to experience but lower per-child penalty. This ex-ante cost of motherhood is missed by child penalty measures. Income loss from career sorting is small, revealing effectiveness of quality-quantity & time-expenditure trade-offs"

Helsinki just went a full year without a single traffic death The capital city is Finnish’ed with car-related fatalities.

“Helsinki hasn’t registered a single traffic-related fatality in the past year…Citing data that shows the risk of pedestrian fatality is cut in half by reducing a car’s speed from 40 to 30km/hr, city officials imposed the lower limit in most of Helsinki’s residential areas and city center in 2021.”

A line graph showing NSF grant awards made through 2/27/26 for fiscal year 2026 compared with grant awards for fiscal years 2021-2025.

NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26)

Directorates to follow

1/10

We are currently seeking organizational and individual support for our FY27 Funding Recommendation Letter and hope you will join us in asking for more robust funding for BLS. We are asking Congress to approve $754 million for BLS in FY27 which is a 5% increase over FY26. These funds will allow BLS to train new staff, implement delayed modernization efforts, and sustain response rates in multiple programs. We are accepting sign-ons from both organizations and individuals no later than COB Wednesday March 4. Please select the appropriate link below to read the full letter and sign-on.

Care about Americans, employment, earnings, consumer prices, your local or our national economy?

@usbls.bsky.social empowers us to better recognize these & make decisions.

Consider signing onto Friends of BLS's new letter to Congress re its budget.

And spread the word.

Daron @DAcemogluMIT uses his language and authority to weigh in pointing out to the possibility of a breakdown of knowledge transmission and the reduction of the stock of skill as consequence of AI. In some societies, this has already happened in the world of "physical skills"...

📢 New paper accepted at Economics of Education Review by Bedoya, Hoyos & Estrada: "Rule-based civil service: Evidence from a nationwide teacher reform in Mexico"

#EconSky #EconomicsOfEducationReview

@ckcarruthers.bsky.social
@tyleransom.bsky.social
@sandramcnally.bsky.social

1/N

The Birthrate Is Plunging. Why Some Say That’s a Good Thing.

Happy to have contributed to this along w/ @karenguzzo.bsky.social @marthajbailey.bsky.social & Melissa Kearney. My favorite from Karen: “We spent decades shaming women 4 having kids under the wrong circumstances, 4 not having their ducks in a row. Now they are holding up their end of the bargain.”

"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is that our exports are a better buy for foreign buyers.

Students on the Job Market: 2024-2025 Graduate Placement Data | APSA Data on the Profession The 2024-2025 APSA Graduate Placement Survey was conducted from November-December 2025. Collecting data from 31 participating institutions that provided data about 181 doctoral students on the job market, the survey gathered information about the job placements, demographics, and fields of study of doctoral students on the job market during the 2024-2025 academic year. Despite a lower overall placement rate than in previous years, broad placement trends remain the same, with candidates with PhD in hand being much more likely to successfully place and a majority of candidates specializing in American Politics, Comparative Politics, and International Relations.

Students on the Job Market: 2024-2025 Graduate Placement Data | APSA Data on the Profession

The 2024-2025 APSA Graduate Placement Survey was conducted from November-December 2025. Collecting data from 31 participating institutions that provided data about 181 doctoral students on the job market,…

🚨 A defining moment for global health data.

The termination of the #USAID-supported Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Program has wide-ranging consequences. We reflect on the collapse and argue what should come next in a new PNAS: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2…

📊 9,000+ studies

Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries? (Forthcoming Article) - We consider why fertility has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries. We begin by documenting declining total fertility and rising childlessness across cohorts, highlighting the need to focus on cohort versus period-specific fertility rates. With this motivation, we propose a conceptual model of fertility determination that augments the standard Becker model with an explicit role for social norms and cohort-specific contextual factors, including broad social and economic influences and an expanded set of consumption and lifestyle options. We posit that these forces have led to “shifting priorities,” reducing the centrality of parenthood. We then review existing empirical evidence –and conclude that the decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure consistent with our cohort-based conceptual framework. We conclude with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?" by Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine.

These dogs are having the time of their lives following this week's historic blizzard in the Northeast. Please enjoy. 14/10 for all

Truth

FRED Blog:

State and metro employment: Fourth quarter 2025

fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2026/02/stat...

Altmetric from: https://nature.altmetric.com/details/187977106/twitter showing 1 X post from an account with 2,567 followers.

Altmetric for bsky from: https://nature.altmetric.com/details/187977106/bluesky saying Altmetric has seen 136 Bluesky posts from 126 Bluesky users, with an upper bound of 530,794 followers.

Some academic papers show everyone how people are posting about the paper, using a tool called Altmetric. Here's the how our new paper reached folks on twitter vs. bluesky. No comparison. Twitter is gone gone. Deader than the Monroeville Mall in The Dawn of Dead. www.nature.com/articles/s43...

ICE detained a Minnesota teen, labeled him an ‘unaccompanied minor,’ and lost him The Trump administration is apprehending and designating immigrant kids as “unaccompanied,” even as their parents in the U.S. search for them.

ICE agents grabbed a 16-year-old asylum seeker--which they aren't supposed to do

They kept him from his parents -which they aren't supposed to do

They shipped him out of state, to a Christian ministry, which they aren't supposed to do.

Then they *lost* him.

www.startribune.com/how-ice-labe...