Dr. Noa Balf נועה באלף نوعة بالف

Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk

Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient

PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time

Kalshi? 78%

Polymarket? 67%

Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage

Our paper on how cross-cutting group memberships predict warmer out-party affect and analyses suggesting this is why Latinos in the US have warmer feelings toward the out-party is now fully published in the most recent @polbehavior.bsky.social issue.

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

My latest article is now up on ASR. In it, we argue that the U.S. LGBTQ movement is in the midst of a widespread, conflictual process of generational turnover—with important implications for the future of the movement.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Banner displaying "#OpenAccess" in white text on a green background above the text "American Political Science Review" in white on a blue background.

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social -

Attitudinal and Behavioral Legacies of Wartime Violence: A Meta-Analysis - https://cup.org/43QCUmg

- @joan-barcelo.bsky.social

#FirstView

When Serving the Public Interest Generates Private Gains: Private Actor Governance and Two-Sided Digital Markets When Serving the Public Interest Generates Private Gains: Private Actor Governance and Two-Sided Digital Markets By Guillaume Beaumier, l'École Nationale d'Administration Publique and Abraham Newman, Georgetown University From speech to privacy, broad public interests are increasingly governed online by policy decisions taken by private companies. We examine when and how firms make such decisions. In contrast to the shadow of hierarchy and functionalist explanations of private authority, we build an analytical framework based on business power and the economics literature concerned with two-sided markets.

When Serving the Public Interest Generates Private Gains: Private Actor Governance and Two-Sided Digital Markets

When Serving the Public Interest Generates Private Gains: Private Actor Governance and Two-Sided Digital Markets By Guillaume Beaumier, l'École Nationale d'Administration Publique and…

Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us

As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.

Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.

Heading to the Middle East Studies Association @mesa1966.bsky.social - please say hi!! I would love to connect

The exit economy is here. Black Women are paying the highest price | Fortune This isn’t a blip. It’s a structural crisis. And it's not a recovery, it's a redistribution of opportunity.

Since February, according to my latest analysis, almost 600,000 Black women have been economically sidelined. The November 20, 2025, Jobs Report makes clear this isn’t a blip. It’s a structural crisis. That is not a recovery. It is a redistribution of opportunity.

Policy over Protest: Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Support for Movement Parties Policy over Protest: Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Support for Movement Parties By Dan Mercea and Felipe G. Santos, University of London Across the world, political parties are incorporating social movement strategies and frames. In this study, we pivot from the dominant focus on party characteristics to analyze drivers of support for movement parties in six European countries. We report results from a choice-based conjoint survey experiment showing that contrary to previous research, movement party voters favor neither candidates who are institutional outsiders nor those who actively participate in protests.

Policy over Protest: Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Support for Movement Parties

Policy over Protest: Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Support for Movement Parties By Dan Mercea and Felipe G. Santos, University of London Across the world, political parties are incorporating social…

Research article titled "Manning Humanitarian Programs: The Impossible Bargain of Refugee Men" by Amy Gilmore

📢New issue of #PAG21 is out!📢

In "Manning Humanitarian Programs", Amy Gilmore considers humanitarian aids' gendered priorities and further identifies an "impossible bargain" for refugee men in Chad 🇹🇩

🌟Available #OpenAccess🌟

buff.ly/ftavZUg

This is not ok and this piece should not be affiliated with apsa. It reads like and IDF spokesperson brief. They cite the AJC...

JREP abstract discussing biases in the U.S. Supreme Court's decisions, focusing on racial stereotypes in criminal cases from 2005-2017, based on analysis from the Court's criminal docket.

#OpenAccess from the latest issue of @journalrep.bsky.social -

Supreme Prejudice: Examining the Supreme Court’s Racial & Criminal Biases - https://cup.org/42WfwU6

- Elizabeth Maltby & @abbymatthews.bsky.social

#JREP10

We are still accepting proposals! Please forward to any PhD, PostDoc, or Early Career Researchers you think may be interested in presenting their work on gender and/or inequalities! 🌟👇

Depoliticisation, Distrust, and the Conservative Youth Turn: Rethinking Democratic Citizenship European Consortium for Political Research

‼️CfP‼️ #Depoliticisation, Distrust, and the Conservative #Youth Turn: Rethinking Democratic #Citizenship

🪑Robert Sata & Marta Zerkowska-Balas

ECPR Joint Sessions in Innsbruck, April 2026

⏳10 Dec 25
Further info & submission portal: ecpr.eu/Events/Event...

@ecpr.bsky.social #ecprjs26

Many of the stickers & images resemble Shahid/martyr posters. In a bizarr-o & grotesque mirroring. There was also a pattern of glorifying the smiles of the dead & the need to continue smiling to erase the violent & genocidal actions that brought about these deaths instead portraying innocent victims

It is interesting bc it is a grassroots organic privately funded commemoration, expressing personal grief and *also* an aggressively right-wing ethnonational populist statist narrative. It is sort of an extreme performance of Israeli commemorative repertoire incorporating social media practice

Pics I took this summer of walls of these stickers.

How a sticker campaign fueled Israel’s war machine Portraits of fallen soldiers have saturated Israeli public space, binding personal loss to a drive for ‘total victory’ in Gaza.

This summer while in Israel/Palestine, I wrote a friend & colleague, who is a memory scholar, about a pervasive phenomenon of commemorative stickers covering public places. I thought it was disturbing and interesting.
Here is a piece about it by Nissi Peli @972mag.com
www.972mag.com/memorial-sti...

Logo of the "Politics & Gender" journal with a hashtag 'OpenAccess' on a teal and yellow background.

#OpenAccess from @politicsgenderj.bsky.social -

Always Gender but Not Only Gender: Operationalizing Intersectionality in Swedish Gender Equality Policy - https://cup.org/4p4jRwX

- Lukas D Bullock

#FirstView

😷Check out this recent article, “Whitewashing Women Voters: Intersectionality and Partisan Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election,” published in @politicsgenderj.bsky.social by Chaerim Kim and Jane Junn 👇
doi.org/10.1017/S174... #polisky

סקר אוקטובר 2025: רוב גדול בציבור סבורים שמרבית העקרונות לסיום המלחמה שעליהם הכריז נתניהו טרם מומשו 44% מהישראלים סבורים שהממשל האמריקני הוא הגורם המשפיע יותר על החלטות ביטחוניות הנוגעות לישראל, כמעט כפול משיעור הסבורים שזו ממשלת ישראל (23%). 41% בציבור היהודי תומכים בסיפוח יהודה ושומרון/הגדה המערבי...

New national representative survey from Israel. When asked about their preferred option for the future of the West Bank, Jewish respondents:

- 41% support annexing
- 27% signing an agreement with the PA
- 17% "keeping things as they are"
= 15% don't know

www.idi.org.il/articles/62060

Opinion | Trump’s new plan for Obamacare leaves Americans to fend for themselves We finally know what “concepts of a plan” looks like – and it’s not good.

Here is my latest for @msnbc.com, on Trump's ill-advised concept of a plan for health care, which entails repealing the ACA, and redistributing private insurers' tax breaks to the people for what would essentially amount to an HSA, which is unhelpful if not wealthy. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Logo of JREP with the hashtag OpenAccess, set against a grey background patterned with red dots.

#OpenAccess from @journalrep.bsky.social -

Paternalistic Push & Pull: The Role of Sexism in Public Opinion of Kamala Harris - https://cup.org/43SsdiY

- @crystalrobertson.bsky.social

#FirstView

Bartels did a study 20+ years ago looking at how much a member of Congress' record coincided with their constituents' views, broken down by income. MCs are a lot more responsive to their wealthier constituents. Think about whom SNAP and flight delays affect. www.russellsage.org/sites/defaul...

‘Black Conservatism’ and Familiarity with Ideological Concepts CDDRL Research-in-Brief [4.5-minute read]

Excellent write-up from my friends at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social—my second home—on my article in @poqjournal.bsky.social that questions the validity of the canonical liberal–conservative measure for studying Black Americans’ political attitudes and behavior.

cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...

I'm thrilled that my book, Unity through Particularism: How Electoral Reforms Influence Parties and Legislative Behavior, is now available for pre-order through CUP and Amazon!

Let me know if you'd like an electronic copy for your class, and I'll send it to you!

www.cambridge.org/us/universit...

Excited to share that together with @malojan.bsky.social we’ve published a research note in #partypolitics introducing PartySOME, a comprehensive dataset on political parties’ social media activity. A thread 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Gendered Perceptions and the Costs of Political Toxicity: Experimental Evidence from Politicians and Citizens in Four Democracies | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core Gendered Perceptions and the Costs of Political Toxicity: Experimental Evidence from Politicians and Citizens in Four Democracies - Volume 119 Issue 3

From our latest issue: Gendered Perceptions and the Costs of Political Toxicity: Experimental Evidence from Politicians and Citizens in Four Democracies by GREGORY EADY, ANNE RASMUSSEN www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Promotional banner for the European Journal of Political Research available on Cambridge Core, featuring the Cambridge University Press logo.

#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -

Political representation from the people’s perspective: the problem-solving principal–agent partnership - https://cup.org/3JH5r6K

- Kenza Amara-Hammou, Karen Celis & Virginie Van Ingelgom

#FirstView