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Anton Spisak

@antonspisak.bsky.social

Senior research fellow, Centre for European Reform. Geoeconomics, trade, Europe, and UK-EU relations. Likes good coffee, long runs, and the Paris Review.

8,204 Followers  |  565 Following  |  509 Posts  |  Joined: 30.10.2023
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Posts by Anton Spisak (@antonspisak.bsky.social)

Sharp analysis by @sandertordoir.bsky.social @james-r-green.bsky.social on how Chinese tech investment in Europe is shifting and EU policy struggling to keep up.

Plenty of lessons for EU policymakers as they revisit FDI screeningΒ and ask themselves some tricky questions about Europe's openness.

04.03.2026 10:18 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Sometimes I forget how much I still love London, but not tonight.

03.03.2026 20:18 β€” πŸ‘ 29    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Especially if you know that you’ll be fighting to win back those voters at the next election πŸ₯²

03.03.2026 13:50 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

This strikes me as lacking in some elementary political instinct. If your voters leave your party and turn elsewhere, your first response shouldn’t be telling them they’re acting stupid (even if you disagree with their reasons or if you think the alternative is populist).

03.03.2026 13:24 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

For anyone wanting to understand what the Commission sees as "negotiable" in EU-UK relations, I've always said: follow EU-Swiss negotiations closely and read all the legal texts that come out.

And guess what, we now have texts of EU-Swiss common food safety area and electricity agmts!

02.03.2026 11:42 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Commission officials are hypervigilant about the possibility of the Swiss ratification process ending in failure (again, after the IFA debacle). And part of their strategy is avoiding agreeing anything with the UK that could be perceived as giving the Brits a more favourable deal than the Swiss.

02.03.2026 11:32 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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The President of the European Commission and the President of the Swiss Confederation sign a broad package of EU-Switzerland agreements Today, on 2 March 2026, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the President of the Swiss Confederation Guy Parmelin signed a broad package of agreements aiming to deepen an...

The Commission and Switzerland have signed their new agreements today. Next step is the tricky Swiss ratification process: a parliamentary vote and a referendum.

These negotiations have been the single biggest (external) factor shaping the trajectory of UK-EU relations.
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

02.03.2026 11:26 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

Asserting international law only when it is in your own/allies interest means not being committed to international law at all. Being dragged into a war by more powerful allies against direct interest and better judgement means having no strategic autonomy. The UK Govt is in a mess.

01.03.2026 22:56 β€” πŸ‘ 206    πŸ” 72    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

I may be wrong, but Starmer's statement does not suggest that (a) the UK is acting in self-defence, or (b) force is the only feasible means to respond, or (c) that force is both necessary and proportionate now. So what exactly makes the UK's involvement permissible under international law?

01.03.2026 22:35 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

From the UK govt's own legal position:

"The UK and its allies are permitted under international law to use or support force in such circumstances where acting in self-defence is the only feasible means to deal with an ongoing armed attack and where the force used is necessary and proportionate."

01.03.2026 22:28 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 1

As always, my point about international law is that either you take it seriously or you do not.

It is hardly international law when you invoke it only against some nations but not others.

The clue is in the word β€œinternational”.

01.03.2026 22:09 β€” πŸ‘ 294    πŸ” 65    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

To be clear, I’m not saying that EP had good reasons for ECJ referral (they were clearly playing politics using legal tools at their disposal). My point is simply that it’s a risky play, in the current conditions, for the Cion to proceed with PA without seeking EP consent…

27.02.2026 21:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

True, that’s the effect of their actions. But you can also argue that MEPs were just exercising their treaty-based rights, and that other EU institutions didn’t do a particularly good job bringing MEPs on board…

27.02.2026 18:25 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

EU moves ahead with provisional application of Mercosur. What isn't clear is whether the Commission will seek a confirmatory vote in the European Parliament. Provisional application doesn't require EP consent, but skipping a vote would break with precedent and risk inflaming relations with MEPs.

27.02.2026 14:55 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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The EU's struggle to ratify the #Mercosur deal exposes a weakness in Europe's geoeconomic playbook, argues @antonspisak.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight.

Read here: buff.ly/IESx33T

23.02.2026 11:01 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The SC ruling is big news, but it’s not the end of Trump’s tariffs. It means Trump administration will almost certainly look for other legal hooks to bring them back. And product-specific (Section 232) tariffs on steel/alum remain unaffected. Expect a lot more uncertainty before Trump strikes again.

20.02.2026 16:16 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The ECB's bid to strengthen the euro's global role As dollar dominance wobbles, Europe should boost the euro’s reach, led by bolder liquidity lines from the ECB.

New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social.

At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally.

It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference.

1/

www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...

20.02.2026 09:40 β€” πŸ‘ 39    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 4

Great article @antonspisak.bsky.social

19.02.2026 20:23 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Thank you very much, John!

20.02.2026 09:44 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Killer conclusion - "Unless the EU finds a better way to align its domestic political and institutional incentives in line with its external aims, its ambitions will continue to outrun its capacity to deliver."

19.02.2026 12:15 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

New from me: a short piece on what comes next for the EU-Mercosur deal (spoiler: more trouble), and what ratification hurdles tell us about the EU's capacity to deliver on its geoeconomic ambitions.

19.02.2026 10:52 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Some numbers on this problem from a short @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper I wrote last year.

www.cer.eu/insights/per...

17.02.2026 17:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This should be front-page news. The collapse in UK goods exports is the single biggest reason why UK economic growth hasn’t picked up in recent years.

Brexit is a big part of it, but there’s also a major China shock to UK export competitiveness that’s gone largely unnoticed in UK political debate.

17.02.2026 17:01 β€” πŸ‘ 64    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Marco Rubio says Viktor OrbΓ‘n’s leadership is β€˜essential’ to US interests US secretary of state hails β€˜golden era’ in relations with Hungary and its pro-Russian premier

Worth noting that the only two European capitals on Rubio’s post-Munich tour were Budapest and Bratislava. OrbΓ‘n and Fico. This is the NSS in action: β€œcultivating resistance within European nations”. And it’s probably just the beginning.

www.ft.com/content/929c...

16.02.2026 19:37 β€” πŸ‘ 45    πŸ” 30    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Centre for European Reform: CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Will 2026 be the year to reset the reset? On this week’s Unpacking Europe podcast, the CER’s deputy director Ian Bond sat down with Anton Spisak, a senior research fellow at the CER, and Jannike Wachowiak, a researcher at the UK in a C...

πŸŽ™οΈβ€œHow do things stand in the EU-UK relationship and what the prospects for the future?” @cerianbond.bsky.social asked @antonspisak.bsky.social and @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social in the #CERpodcast.πŸŽ™οΈ

Listen here:

12.02.2026 12:01 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A pleasure to discuss aspects of the EU-UK reset from defence to trade with @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & @antonspisak.bsky.social .

11.02.2026 10:39 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Missed this yesterday. Massive boost for Ukraine’s arms industry, who have been pushing for export controls to be lifted. Creates even more opportunity to develop new equipment, innovate and fund the defensive effort. Great news.

09.02.2026 07:45 β€” πŸ‘ 162    πŸ” 45    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1
Morgan McSweeney resigns as Downing Street chief of staff Exit of Mandelson protΓ©gΓ© comes as Sir Keir Starmer seeks to stave off leadership speculation

Right that the prime minister has resigned. His successor, Keir Starmer, has a very difficult inheritance.

08.02.2026 14:33 β€” πŸ‘ 1079    πŸ” 207    πŸ’¬ 45    πŸ“Œ 13
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Cabinet office minister used PR firm to investigate journalists' sources Cabinet office minister Josh Simons commissioned APCO Worldwide for the investigation in 2023.

Absolutely inexcusable.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

07.02.2026 11:24 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Mr Fico's Smer has dodged a bullet there by

1) Running Mr Šefčovič instead of Mr LajčÑk for president in 2019

2) Mr Šefčovič losing and returning to the EC instead of Mr LajčÑk replacing him

3) Failing to secure Mr LajčÑk's appointment as the EU Special Representative for Central Asia

06.02.2026 22:23 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0