David Phinnemore

The EU’s plan to stop new members from becoming Hungary 2.0 Montenegro, the front-runner for EU membership, could join under stricter conditions. Here’s what that means.

"There’s little clarity on what form the EU’s safeguards will take.

“There are some ideas flying around but no one has come up with an actual proposal,” a European diplomat involved in the discussions told POLITICO."

www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...

Government proposes referendum on whether to return to EU accession talks

"The Government of Iceland has today decided to put to Althingi, the Icelandic parliament, a motion for resolution proposing to hold a referendum on 29 August 2026 on whether to resume accession talks with the European Union"

www.government.is/news/article...

The report

committees.parliament.uk/publications...

Starmer’s UK-EU reset suffering from ‘lack of direction’, MPs warn Commons foreign affairs committee calls on prime minister to ‘end secrecy’ around push to improve bilateral relations

“It feels as though we are on a journey with no clear destination… In many areas, the government has failed to provide timelines, milestones or priorities… it does not appear to have an ambitious strategic vision for the… new relationship with the EU” - Thornberry
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Brussels’ ‘membership-lite’ plan for Ukraine to leave sour taste at dinner Also in this newsletter: Luxembourg pitches for EU AI leadership

“A merit-based approach and internal reforms remain key. All the talk about the so-called reverse accession has no chance of prevailing,” said one EU diplomat. “There is no support from the member states.”

www.ft.com/content/52e2...

Switzerland, EU sign package of agreements to strengthen ties Swiss President Guy Parmelin and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, signed a package of accords on Monday to strengthen bilateral relations.

"agreements remain subject to.. ratification... with considerable uncertainty surrounding outcome.. on the Swiss side. The federal government will have to convince parliament.. and, above all, the people, who will have the final say in a referendum expected in 2027"
www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-di...

‘Made in Europe’ row brings back Brexit’s bitter memories British ministers are concerned that U.K. firms won’t be treated fairly under new European rules.

‘The French officials’ reasoning is simple: Since it left the EU single market, the U.K. should not enjoy the benefits that come with it, noted the officials…

‘“You can’t have the cake and eat it too,” one French official told POLITICO bluntly.’

www.politico.eu/article/made...

Von der Leyen won’t commit to 2027 EU entry date for Ukraine | Euractiv The EU granted Ukraine candidate status in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion

Von der Leyen: “I understand very well that for you, a clear date is also important… The date you set is your benchmark that you want to match… from our side, dates by themselves are not possible.”

Council greenlights signing of package of agreements with Switzerland Council greenlights signature of package of agreements with Switzerland

More than a year after negotiations concluded, EU agrees to sign latest suite of bilateral agreements with Switzerland

Insights here for UK into arrangements that can be concluded with the EU… and what it understands by ‘a balance of rights and obligations’
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...

+++OUT NOW+++++ The definitive assessment of regulation after Brexit. Masterminded by @jreland.bsky.social 1/?

Iceland looks to fast-track vote on joining EU A referendum on resuming membership talks had been expected in 2027, but could come as early as this August.

"The conversation around deepening [EU] ties with Iceland and potentially even resuming accession negotiations began even before Trump returned to office last year... But escalating threats from the U.S., have increased the urgency."

www.politico.eu/article/icel...

and then add on dispute settlement and final provisions... annexes, protocols, declarations...

Free with access to WPUK on Tuesday?

Killer conclusion - "Unless the EU finds a better way to align its domestic political and institutional incentives in line with its external aims, its ambitions will continue to outrun its capacity to deliver."

Brussels pitches English-first approval to speed up EU trade deals Agreements with India and Indonesia would be test cases under a new “accelerated procedure” floated by the European Commission.

Oft overlooked procedural features of finalising agreements with the EU.

Worth noting for if/when UK and EU announce SPS and other ‘reset’ agreements later this year.

Speed with which TCA signed and provisionally applied very much the exception not the rule

www.politico.eu/article/brus...

A fast-tracked Ukraine EU accession by 2027? Here are three dilemmas The idea of a fast-tracked Ukraine accession to the EU, as early as 2027, is gaining ground in Brussels. But urgency must not come at the expense of principle. The greater risk today is not moving too...

"accelerated accession must not create second-class membership... fast-tracking Ukraine must not become a limited... fig-leaf enlargementa speedy enlargement process must go hand in hand with internal EU reform" - @jaemmanouilidis.bsky.social

euobserver.com/203344/a-fas...

Some notes on the coming fun with Gibraltar

tl;dr There's an agreement, that needs to be in place for 10 April, but no one knows exactly what it is yet

1/

Reeves to limit deregulatory drive as she seeks closer UK ties with EU UK chancellor says Britain prepared to align with Brussels’ rules to try to boost trade with the bloc

“Although she has yet to say which other areas [beyond removing barriers to trade in established industries e.g. chemicals] she would like to see covered by the new approach, Reeves has told colleagues that an EU-UK summit later this year should identify new workstreams.”

www.ft.com/content/98e5...

5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027 Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.

“The challenge for Ukraine’s membership prospects is getting all 27 member countries on board… any decision to expand the bloc requires unanimous support”

And it’s not just a case of overcoming Orban’s opposition. Accession treaties require ratification by all ms
www.politico.eu/article/5-st...

There’s also a major procedural issue

Each accession treaty needs to be ‘submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.’

Domestic parliamentary (at least) approval needed in all existing member and acceding states.

Fast-tracking Ukraine: why Europe is wary of bending rules for EU entry Behind public words of support, national governments have concerns such as corruption, the impact on agriculture and freedom of movement

“Multiple current and former Brussels-based diplomats… as well as senior political figures… involved in the 2004 enlargement of the bloc, say a timeline where Ukraine joined in the next two or three years is unworkable, both politically and practically.’

Indeed…

www.irishtimes.com/world/europe...

Post-Brexit sales of British farm products to EU fall by 37% NFU warn it could take years to restore Brexit losses despite efforts to smooth negotiations on farming and other elements of UK-EU reset

‘“Simply reducing friction doesn’t mean we are going to get the EU market back again. There aren’t empty spaces on the shelves with a label saying ‘waiting for British products’.”

‘In other words, it could take years to restore Brexit losses.’

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

The Northern Irish Assembly has Formally Granted ‘Democratic consent’ to the Windsor Framework. What Does This Mean? The lack of a cross-community majority means the next ‘democratic consent’ vote will be in 2028.

Digest version of recent piece for Political Quarterly.l

MLAs will come back for second ‘Democratic Consent’ vote in 2028

Context then to include impact of UK-EU reset (potential reduction of frictions on ‘Irish Sea border’)… and next NI Assembly

politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-nor...

EU looks to rekindle ties with Turkey as a critical partner in Ukraine With Ankara likely to play a key role in a post-war Ukraine, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is traveling to Turkey to revive relations.

“Restarting EU membership negotiations is not in the EU's thinking just yet. Still, Kos said that "we need to look with fresh eyes at our relations… My visit... is about rebuilding trust and exploring how we can make our economic relationship work better."

www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...

Can Greenland join the EU? - UK in a changing Europe Catherine Barnard and Denzil Davidson look at the legal process Greenland would have to follow if it were to decide to try and rejoin the EU, as well as the potential political obstacles.

“Can Greenland join the EU? Since it is not a ‘state’ it cannot formally join under the general accession process under Article 49 TEU. However, it can move from OCT to OR status, meaning that it would again become part of the EU”

ukandeu.ac.uk/can-greenlan...

Still on the slow train to nowhere? EU Enlargement between technocratic incrementalism and geopolitical turbulence | IACES.ie IACES Annual Lecture 2026 - Professor John O’Brennan, Maynooth University

Highly recommended
www.iaces.ie/events/still...

EU has 'open mind' on UK customs union debate, says commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis says the EU is willing to engage with Britain amid mounting global uncertainty.

‘The single market relies on a country accepting "the four freedoms": freedom of movement, goods, services and capital.’

Clumsy BBC definition of the single market

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

‘The PM told hacks “we can go further” in aligning with the EU single market where “in our national interest.” He added: “There are other areas in the single market where we should look to see whether we can’t make more progress.”’

www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...

EU-UK Partnership Council meeting same day

commission.europa.eu/document/dow...

EU-UK Joint Committee to meet 2 February

commission.europa.eu/document/dow...